The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● WI-03: The NRCC commissioned a poll last month that reportedly pitted Republican state Sen. Pat Testin in a hypothetical race against longtime Democratic Rep. Ron Kind in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, but this latest target of DC Republicans' ardor sounds unlikely to reciprocate their interest.
Campaign Action
Testin told WisPolitics.com this week, "There were a few calls made," but he added that "as flattering as it is to be considered as a congressional candidate, I'm focused on my re-election for next year." That may not be quite a no, but it's very close.
Back in early July, the NRCC touted that a survey from an unidentified pollster showed "a named Republican candidate" leading Kind 45-43. We never learned the identity of the pollster, but WisPolitics reports that Testin himself has "confirmed" he was the Republican tested against the incumbent. However, the NRCC's poll doesn't seem to have persuaded Testin to give up his seat in the legislature to challenge the 12-term incumbent.
The 3rd Congressional District, which is in southwestern Wisconsin, swung from 55-44 Obama to 49-45 Trump, making it a potential target for Republicans. However, the GOP hasn't had much luck putting it into play so far. Last year, Kind beat an underfunded Republican 60-40 while Tony Evers was carrying the seat by a narrow 50-48 during the governor's race. Kind ended June with $2.6 million in the bank.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: OH Predictive Insights (R): Mark Kelly (D): 46, Martha McSally (R-inc): 41 (June: 45-44 McSally)
● MA-Sen: Attorney Scott Lang, who left office as mayor of New Bedford in 2012, says he'll decide after Labor Day whether he'll challenge Sen. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary. Lang insisted that his choice won't be impacted by whatever Rep. Joe Kennedy III ends up doing, though he still praised the congressman by saying, "I believe that Kennedy is a progressive centrist, and that's where I believe this Senate seat needs to be."
Meanwhile, an unnamed source close to state Attorney General Maura Healey tells the Boston Globe that she "is not considering a Senate run." Healey hasn't shown any obvious interest in running against Markey, though she's never ruled it out.
● MN-Sen: This week, former media executive Bill Guidera announced that he would not seek the GOP nod against Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.
Gubernatorial
● PR-Gov: Wanda Vázquez became governor of Puerto Rico about two weeks ago, and she said late last week that she would serve out the rest of the term. Vázquez, who is a member of the pro-statehood New Progressive Party, has not yet announced if she'll run for a full four-year term in 2020.
There was speculation earlier this month that Vázquez might only stay long enough to appoint a new secretary of state, the post that is first in line for the governorship, and that she would then resign and allow this person to take over as governor. Indeed, state Senate President Thomas Rivera Schatz, who has a famously acrimonious relationship with Vázquez, publicly supported making Resident Commissioner Jenniffer Gonzalez the commonwealth's new leader. If this had come to pass then Gonzalez would have been Puerto Rico's fourth governor over the course of just a few weeks.
However, while Vázquez repeatedly had said in the past that she didn't want to be governor and would only take over if constitutionally necessary, she said soon after taking office that she wasn't looking to resign. Rivera Schatz seems to have accepted that his old rival isn't going anywhere, and last week, he finally publicly gave her his support.
● WV-Gov: There's been some speculation that 2018 GOP Senate nominee Patrick Morrisey could run for governor next year rather than for re-election as attorney general, but he doesn't sound likely to try this.
Morrisey said earlier this month, "I am leaning toward reelection but I have made no formal announcement," and while he didn't address the gubernatorial contest, he said he had a "good" relationship with GOP incumbent Jim Justice. By contrast, Morrisey didn't rule out running for the Senate in a possible 2021 special election to succeed Democrat Joe Manchin, who is considering running for governor.
House
● AZ-01: On Monday, former state Sen. Barbara McGuire announced that she would challenge Rep. Tom O'Halleran in the Democratic primary for this competitive seat. McGuire told the Arizona Mirror that she identified as a "centrist consensus-building lifelong Democrat," but she argued that O'Halleran, who is a former Republican member of the state legislature, "is and has become far-right leaning."
McGuire didn't provide any information about what issues she thinks the incumbent has "become far-right leaning" on, and instead just said she'd comment more later this week. O'Halleran has been one of the more moderate members of the Democratic caucus during his two terms, and according to FiveThirtyEight, he voted with the Trump administration 54% of the time during the 115th Congress. However, the incumbent's Trump score has fallen to under 5% for the current Congress.
McGuire was elected to the state House in 2006, but she lost re-election in 2010 during the GOP wave. In 2012, though, McGuire ran for an open seat in the state Senate and won 50-46 even as Mitt Romney was carrying the district 53-45. McGuire hung on to win 51-49 in 2014 during another difficult year for Democrats, and she considered running for this U.S. House seat in the 2016 cycle when it became open.
However, while McGuire formed an exploratory committee for a possible congressional campaign, she decided to seek re-election to her competitive legislative seat instead. This time, though, McGuire lost 53-47 as Donald Trump was carrying her district by a brutal 55-40 margin.
O'Halleran already faces a primary challenge from Eva Putzova, a former Flagstaff city councilor who is running on a progressive platform. However, Putzova has had trouble raising money, and she had just $11,000 to spend at the end of June. This seat narrowly backed both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump, but so far, Republicans haven't landed a formidable candidate.
● CA-45: Mission Viejo Mayor Greg Raths is out with a poll of the March top-two primary from Fabrizio Lee that shows him ahead of the other GOP candidates in the contest to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, but he's hardly in a dominant position.
Porter takes first place with 46% of the vote, and our old friend Undecided is in second with 38%. However, because Undecided isn't allowed to advance to the general election (unlike in basketball, the top-two rulebook only allows humans to compete in congressional races), Raths' 10-3 lead over Laguna Hills Mayor Don Sedgwick would be enough to send him to the general election with Porter. Three other Republicans are further behind: Orange County Board of Education member Lisa Sparks, Yorba Linda City Councilor Peggy Huang, and Orange County prosecutor Ray Gennawey.
It's quite possible that Raths, who also ran here in 2014 and 2016, is benefiting from early name recognition (Mission Viejo, which makes up about 13% of the seat, is the second-largest city in the district). However, at least one of the other candidates has the resources to get his name out. Sedgwick brought in $480,000 during the second quarter of 2019, which was one of the better fundraising hauls for GOP House challengers, and he ended June with $515,000 on-hand.
Three other Republicans, including Raths, didn't do nearly as well. Huang, whose Yorba Linda constituency is located in the nearby 39th District, took in $170,000, and while she self-funded another $94,000, she had just $83,000 left to spend. Sparks, meanwhile, raised $151,000 and had $144,000 in the bank. Raths raised only $100,000 from donors but self-funded another $110,000, and he had $177,000 in the bank. Gennawey took in just $73,000 and had only $57,000 to spend.
Porter unseated Republican incumbent Mimi Walters 52-48 to win an Irvine-area seat that swung from 55-43 Romney to 50-44 Clinton, and the incumbent has been stocking up for another expensive contest. Porter delighted progressives across the country in April when she stumped JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon at a hearing with a question about pay disparities at his company, which may have helped her become one of the top House fundraisers in the nation over the following months. Porter hauled in a massive $992,000 during the second quarter, more than any other incumbent in a competitive House seat, and she had $1.2 million to spend.
● FL-26: Omar Blanco, the president of the Miami-Dade County firefighters union, announced Monday that he would seek the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The Miami Herald writes that Blanco's union has a "history of campaign volunteerism," which could give him a boost in this competitive seat.
Blanco will face restaurateur Irina Vilariño, a Donald Trump backer who has unapologetically spread far-right conspiracy theories, in the GOP primary. Vilariño welcomed Blanco to the race by accusing him of supporting numerous Democratic candidates, including 2018 gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum, and also charged that he was working with Murcasel-Powell. Blanco himself says that he's also a Donald Trump supporter, but he argued that Vilariño was too ideological to beat Mucarsel-Powell in this 57-41 Clinton seat.
● MI-11: This week, auto show products specialist Whittney Williams, who has occasionally worked as an actor in TV commercials, announced that she would seek the GOP nod against freshman Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens. Williams, who is originally from Taiwan, says she lived in the United States as an undocumented immigrant for 16 years until she got married and became an American citizen. Williams, who is the director of diversity for the GOP's 11th District committee but has never run for office, is pitching herself as an ardent Trump ally.
● NM-03: This week, former New Mexico deputy secretary of state John Blair joined the crowded Democratic primary for this open seat. Blair would be the state's first gay member of Congress.
Blair ran for office back in 2008 when he lost a primary for the state Senate 59-41. Since then, he's served as a top aide to then-Rep. Martin Heinrich, who is now the state's junior U.S senator, as well as in the Obama administration's Department of the Interior. At the state secretary of state's office, Blair testified in support of the same-day voter registration bill that will take effect in 2021.
● OH-12: Democrat Danny O'Connor lost two competitive races to Republican Troy Balderson last year, but he says he won't be running here again in 2020. O'Connor instead said he'll either seek re-election as Franklin County clerk of court or challenge GOP county Prosecutor Ron O'Brien.
