I want to share and comment on a depressing article from Slate that we should be aware of. It is based on polling data of swing districts in the House that speaks to the issue of electability in 2020 for potential Trump opponents.
First, the article’s good news, if one is a progressive Dem, that doesn't offset the bad. If we look at the all-important swing districts they seem even less favorably disposed to Biden than someone like AOC, even though they are not fans of either. The takeaway is that the left Dems are not an albatross on the Party, at least in the House.
But, now the bad news. A further analysis of these districts identified Obama to Trump voters. These voters are still pretty much in love with Trump. In match-ups with Trump’s favorability ratings, all Dems “lose” badly when the respondents are asked whether they view them favorably. Biden does less poorly than Sanders; Sanders less poorly than Warren. Trump is viewed favorably by about 70% Biden by 36%; Sanders by 26%; Warren by 17%. Ugh.
One of the reasons I still support Sanders over Warren is I thought he might have a better shot with precisely these voters---his “pro working class” politics. I thought Warren could too, but would have to overcome sexism, explicit and implicit, and the data are consistent with that. It's possible, if Warren gets the nomination, she will become more familiar to these voters and she might do better. However, I can't see her doing much better than Sanders, with whom they are familiar from 2016, and he's not doing well.
The other candidates, besides the three above, have no chance whatsoever with this group because of sexism, racism, or homophobia.
One way to offset this discouraging news is if one of the three top contenders can bring out a lot of black male voters (black females vote at higher rates than any other demographic in the country).
Biden does very well with black voters, but it's almost all based on Obama choosing him, not his record. Younger black voters, especially males failed to show up for Clinton in 2016 and 2020 might well be a repeat because Biden does not do well with younger blacks in other polls I’ve seen. The GOP will be targeting this demographic to discourage turnout and, unlike with Clinton, they won’t have to make up a lot of the claims about Biden. They will also use false flag ops, e.g., “I’ve always voted Dem, but Thurmond, sentencing for crack vs. other forms of coke...blah, blah.” The goal won’t be to get votes for Trump, but stay home and encourage others to..
Sanders actually holds his own among black voters, particularly younger ones, i.e, his percent of support within this group is the same as his overall support---not under represented.
Warren does terribly. Perhaps she could more aggressively court black voters, but it hasn't worked so far, even though she frequently speaks on racism. Apparently, the messenger drowns out the message. I love her style, but that’s irrelevant if others don’t.
If one wants to be an optimist, Trump is viewed unfavorably by about 2 in 10 who went for him after voting for Obama. But elections are contests, and he might still be less disliked than a rival. This happened in 2016.
Here's the article in Slate. Ignore the headline, which is accurate, but the article has so much more to offer.
slate.com/...