The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● WI-07: On Monday, GOP Rep. Sean Duffy unexpectedly announced that he would resign from Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District effective Sept. 23. Duffy, who was first elected to the House in the 2010 GOP wave, cited his family in explaining his departure, saying in a statement, "Recently, we've learned that our baby, due in late October, will need even more love, time, and attention due to complications, including a heart condition."
Campaign Action
Duffy's district, covering rural northwest Wisconsin, was competitive turf a decade ago, but it's been moving sharply to the right ever since. Barack Obama actually carried the 7th (adjusting for redistricting) in 2008 by a 53-45 margin, but four years later, Mitt Romney won it 51-48. The bottom did not truly fall out until 2016, though, when Donald Trump prevailed by a giant 58-37 margin.
Things didn't get much better for Democrats last year despite the blue wave: Republican Gov. Scott Walker carried the 7th 57-41 despite narrowly losing statewide, and even Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin lost it 52-48 while cruising to a 55-45 re-election victory.
Duffy got his first taste of public exposure years before he ran for Congress: In 1997, he was a cast member on the MTV reality TV series "The Real World" and later appeared on several of its spinoffs. From there, Duffy went on to become both an attorney and professional lumberjack. He entered politics in 2002 when he was appointed district attorney of Ashland County, and he soon won a special election to keep his job despite the county's strong Democratic lean.
Two years later, Duffy began considering running against veteran Democratic Rep. Dave Obey, who'd been in office ever since winning a special election all the way back in 1969. Ultimately, Duffy declined to challenge Obey in 2004, instead biding his time for six more years.
However, when Duffy finally decided to take on Obey in 2010, the longtime incumbent chose to retire instead (possibly after getting back an unwelcome poll). Duffy made heavy use of his lumberjack background in his campaign against Democratic state Sen. Julie Lassa, including in a memorable ad where he stood high atop a piece of wood to demolish the top of a tree and declared that he'd "bring the ax to Washington." The tea party wave of 2010 proved no less terrible for Democrats in Wisconsin than elsewhere, and Duffy handily defeated Lassa 52-44.
Shortly after taking office, Duffy very quickly made news for the first of many times during his House career when he complained at a town hall that his $174,000 congressional salary was too small. "With six kids, I still pay off my student loans," he told his new constituents "I still pay my mortgage. I drive a used minivan. If you think I'm living high off the hog, I've got one paycheck." (Duffy would go on to have two more children, with a ninth on the way.)
The incident, however, did little to hurt him at home, especially after Republicans gerrymandered the state's congressional map to strengthen Duffy and other Republican members. Duffy won his first re-election bid by a convincing 56-44 in 2012 against former state Sen. Pat Kreitlow, out-performing the top of the ticket, and he never again faced a serious foe.
Like most congressional Republicans, Duffy went on to become a die-hard Donald Trump fanboy. In early 2017, the congressman ardently defended Trump's proposed Muslim ban, dismissing white supremacist terror by saying, "You don't have a group like ISIS or al-Qaida that's inspiring people around the world to take up arms and kill innocents. That's a one-off." When host Alisyn Camerota pressed him about the 2015 shooting at a black church in South Carolina, Duffy responded, "Look at the good things that came from it. [Then-Gov.] Nikki Haley took down the Confederate flag. That was great!"
Despite these comments, Duffy reportedly emerged as the GOP's top choice to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2018. Duffy himself seemed very interested early on: Toward the end of the 2016 elections, Duffy and Sen. Ron Johnson ran an unusual joint television ad in Duffy's northern Wisconsin seat even though the congressman wasn't in any danger, which looked like an attempt to give him some extra exposure ahead of a Senate bid. However, Duffy surprised observers in early 2017 when he announced that he wouldn't run against Baldwin.
Duffy remained a Trump zealot during his last term in the House. Last month, he took to the floor to speak out against a Democratic resolution condemning Donald Trump for telling four congresswomen of color to "go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came." Duffy defended Trump by saying, "I see nothing that references anybody's race. Not a thing! I don't see anyone's name referenced in the tweets." He went on, "But the president is referring to people, congresswomen, who are anti-American! And lo and behold, everybody in this chamber knows who he's talking about." The resolution passed with the support of only four Republicans.
Duffy's departure will necessitate a special election to fill his vacant seat. Given the trends in the 7th District, the GOP will be favored, but as Nathan Gonzales put it, it's "another potential special election for Republicans to mess up."
It didn’t take long for several state legislators from both parties to show interest in this seat. On the GOP side, state Sen. Tom Tiffany acknowledged that he’d received plenty of calls asking him about this race, and he said his “future plans will be announced soon.” State Rep. John Spiros said he’d “take a look at” running, though he added he was “pretty happy” in the state Assembly. Roll Call also name-dropped state Sen. Jerry Petrowski as a possibility.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. Nick Milroy said he’d decide in the next few weeks. State Sen. Janet Bewley didn’t rule out running, though she said, “I am inclined to stay right where I am.”
Senate
● CO-Sen: Former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper picked up an endorsement over the weekend from Ken Salazar, who served in the Senate from 2005 until he resigned in 2009 to become secretary of the interior.
● IA-Sen: Retired Navy Vice Adm. Michael Franken announced Monday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. Franken acknowledged that national Democrats are already supporting real estate businesswoman Theresa Greenfield. However, he argued that, while "there are those that would like me to wait two years" when GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley will be up, he believed "now is my time."
Franken entered the race with a well-produced video highlighting his military career, which included "leading U.S. forces in Africa to fight the pirates and terrorists." Franken goes on to say his toughest decision was in 2002 when the Bush administration ordered the Department of Defense to plan the invasion of Iraq: Franken, who was a young captain at the time, was representing the Navy "and was the most junior person at the table full of generals and politicians."
Franken continues by saying that he understood that occupying Iraq would be a disaster, and he was the only one in the room voted against all three planned invasion proposals and called "for a fourth option: No." Franken goes on to take Congress to task for voting with the White House to authorize the war, and he argues that the body is even worse today. He concludes by pitching himself as a senator who will "go against the grain" and do what's right for Iowa.
● MA-Sen: On Monday, Rep. Joe Kennedy III publicly acknowledged for the first time that he was considering challenging Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary, and that he planned "to spend the next couple weeks talking to as many of you as I can, trying to figure out if this campaign is right for me and right for Massachusetts."
Kennedy said in his Facebook post, "I hear the folks who say I should wait my turn, but with due respect -- I'm not sure this is a moment for waiting." He continued, "Our system has been letting down a lot of people for a long time, and we can't fix it if we don't challenge it. I've got some ideas on how to do that." Kennedy's message didn't mention Markey.
While Kennedy says he's still deciding what to do, he did form a new fundraising committee with the FEC on Monday for the possible Senate run. If Kennedy ran for the upper chamber, he'd be able to transfer all the money from his House campaign to his new Senate committee. At the end of June, Kennedy had a small $4.2 million to $4.1 million cash-on-hand lead over Markey.
Labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan and business executive Steve Pemberton are already challenging Markey in the primary, and it remains to be seen what they'd do if Kennedy decided to run as well. However, attorney Scott Lang, who is a former mayor of New Bedford, acknowledged Friday that he was unlikely to enter the race if the congressman did as well. Lang added that if Kennedy decides to stay in the House, he'd decide whether or not to take on Markey by Oct. 1.
● ME-Sen: Freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden has told Politico that he'll remain neutral in the general election between the eventual Democratic nominee and GOP Sen. Susan Collins, who is his old boss. Golden, who represents a conservative seat in northern Maine, said of Collins, "I haven't met anyone who works harder than her to be honest with you. And obviously I'm working hard to try to follow in her footsteps." Last year, Collins supported GOP incumbent Bruce Poliquin against Golden, though she said she thought she could work with her former staffer if he won.
House
● CA-08: The Los Angeles Times' Christine Mai-Duc reported over the weekend that GOP Rep. Paul Cook is considering running for an open seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors next year instead of seeking a fifth term in California's reliably red 8th Congressional District.
Cook, who has not yet publicly said anything about his 2020 plans, would not be the first San Bernardino County U.S. House member to try to make this type of career switch this decade. Back in 2014, Democratic Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod decided to run for a different seat on the Board of Supervisors rather than seek a second term, but she lost the nonpartisan general election 52-48 to Republican state Assemblyman Curt Hagman; Negrete McLeod sought a rematch last June, but she lost by a larger 53-47 margin.
Unlike Negrete McLeod, though, Cook would be seeking a Board of Supervisors seat that very much favors his party: District 1, which is the seat Cook is reportedly eyeing, backed Donald Trump 54-41. And while it may seem odd for Cook to think about giving up his post in the House to run for local office, this wouldn't exactly be a huge step down. Unlike in the House, Republicans still hold the majority on the board that governs this county of 2.17 million people.
San Bernardino County supervisors also have a comparable salary to U.S. House members, as well as a much shorter commute. Supervisors are limited to four four-year terms, though that may not be a drawback for Cook, who will be 77 on Election Day.
No matter what Cook does, the GOP should have no trouble holding his 8th Congressional District, a 55-40 Trump seat that includes northern San Bernardino County and the geographically vast, but lightly populated, Inyo and Mono Counties. Last cycle, Democrats were even locked out of the general election after Cook and far-right former state Assemblyman Tim Donnelly won the top-two primary; Cook beat Donnelly 60-40 in November.
● MA-06: State Rep. Lori Ehrlich said Friday that she was still considering seeking the Democratic nod because she's not convinced that Rep. Seth Moulton will really run for a fourth term.
While Moulton dropped his presidential campaign earlier in the day and announced that he was running for re-election, Ehrlich argued, "He wasn't in a hurry to come home and now there are reports of a top campaign adviser making the case that he would be interested in being vice president." Ehrlich doesn't sound like she's looking to run against Moulton, though, since she added, "I want him to succeed at whatever he chooses but the district needs clarity about what exactly he wants to do. Until it is crystal clear I will continue to consider a run."
Women's health advocate Jamie Zahlaway Belsito and Salem City Councillor Lisa Peterson are already running against Moulton, and several other Democrats have expressed interest in joining them over the last few months. Attorney and gun safety activist Angus McQuilken reiterated his interest on Friday, and said he would decide after mid-October. However, Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll's office says she won't take on Moulton.
● MN-08: Diabetes advocate Quinn Nystrom told the Duluth News Tribune over the weekend that several people with the state Democratic Party have spoken to her about challenging freshman GOP Rep. Pete Stauber, and that she was giving herself until the end of the year to decide. Nystrom, whose term on the Baxter City Council ended earlier this year, was also Team Blue's nominee in 2016 for a state House seat: Nystrom lost that contest 59-41 as Donald Trump was carrying the seat by a larger 61-32 margin. Trump carried Minnesota's 8th District 54-39.
● TX-23: On Monday, attorney Jaime Escuder filed paperwork with the FEC for a possible bid for the Democratic nod in this open swing seat. Escuder would face 2018 nominee Gina Ortiz Jones, who is a formidable fundraiser, in the primary, but this wouldn't be the first time he's campaigned against a better-known Democrat.
Back in 2016, Escuder ran in the primary for district attorney in the 83rd Judicial District, which is made up of Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, and Presidio Counties, against incumbent Rod Ponton. Ponton had attracted criticism after he failed to win a high-profile local murder trial, and Escuder unseated him 57-43. However, Escuder lost the general election to Republican Sandy Wilson 56-44 as Donald Trump was carrying the constituency 50-45.
Other Races
● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: Disgraced former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio announced Sunday that he would seek a rematch against Democrat Paul Penzone to try to regain the post he badly lost back in 2016.
Arpaio, a Republican, was first elected to this office back in 1992 and spent 24 years cementing his reputation as one of America's most venal and abusive lawmen. Arpaio delighted his fervent, immigrant-hating base as he earned a reputation for mistreating prisoners, including serving them discolored green and blue meat, forcing them to wear pink underwear, and sending them to live in the "Tent City" prison, which he called a concentration camp and where he'd bragged that temperatures could reach 145 degrees in the summer heat. Arpaio also wasted taxpayer money on a quest to "investigate" Barack Obama's birth certificate, and he still refused to accept its legitimacy as recently as last year.
However, the sheriff's department's racial profiling policies against Latinos finally got Arpaio into trouble with the law in 2016. That October, just a month before his re-election campaign, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that it would charge Arpaio with criminal contempt of court for violating a judge's orders to curtail his department's unconstitutional racial profiling practices. Arpaio ended up losing his bid for a seventh term that year by a lopsided 56-44 margin against Penzone even as Donald Trump was carrying Maricopa County 48-45; Arpaio had defeated Penzone 51-45 four years before.
However, while Trump couldn't rescue Arpaio's career, he did save him from what could have been a six-month prison sentence. In 2017, Arpaio was found guilty for contempt of court, but Trump pardoned him later that year.
Arpaio launched a U.S. Senate bid in early 2018, but he consistently struggled in the polls and raised little money. Then-Rep. Martha McSally, the favorite of national Republicans, ended up defeating former state Sen. Kelly Ward 55-28, while Arpaio took third with just 18%. Arpaio even took third in his Maricopa County base with just 22% of the vote. Despite that poor showing Arpaio, who will be 88 on Election Day, announced Sunday that he was running for sheriff again, and he pledged to bring back the "Tent City" jail.
Unsurprisingly, plenty of Republicans who want to regain this important office are decidedly unenthused about the prospect of having Arpaio as their standard-bearer again. Jerry Sheridan, who was Arpaio's chief deputy during the final six years of his reign of terror, announced that he would challenge Penzone back in February and said this week that he'd stay in the race.
However, Sheridan has some of the same liabilities as his old boss. Sheridan was found in civil contempt back in 2016 for refusing to comply with the judicial order curtailing the department's racial profiling, but the Arizona Police Officer Standards and Training Board has failed to take any action against him.
