Former GOP Rep. David Valadao announced Wednesday that he would seek a rematch with freshman Democratic Rep. TJ Cox in California’s 21st Congressional District. House Republican leaders have anticipated Valadao’s launch for a while, and they scheduled a September fundraiser for him weeks ago before he even had a working website set up.
This seat, which includes the southern Central Valley and part of Bakersfield, moved from 55-44 Obama to 55-40 Clinton, but Cox’s 50.4-49.6 win last year was a huge upset. Valadao had decisively won three terms in Congress, and Democrats feared last cycle that they again wouldn’t have much of a shot in a district where they’d struggled mightily to turn out Latino voters for elections where the presidency isn’t on the ballot.
Cox had launched a campaign the previous year to the north in the 10th District against GOP Rep. Jeff Denham, and he only switched to the 21st in March. However, Cox hardly looked like a giant killer especially after that June’s top-two primary, where Valadao led him 63-37. (No other candidates were on the ballot.) While we’ve observed for years that the results of California’s top-two primary often do a bad job predicting how each party will do in November, this still looked like a strong sign that Valadao was in good shape five months ahead of Election Day.
Even in the fall, it seemed as though history would repeat itself. A late September poll from SurveyUSA showed Valadao leading Cox 50-39, and while that was the only public poll we ever saw, major outside groups on both sides very much behaved like they thought the incumbent was well ahead. Valadao’s allies at the NRCC slowly began canceling ad time for September and then October, only hanging on to reservations for the final week of the race. The DCCC, meanwhile, had only ever booked time for that final week of the race, but even they eventually axed that small reservation.
But it was in those last days that things finally got interesting. The Democratic group House Majority PAC launched a quarter-million dollar ad buy, their first investment of the entire race. The NRCC then not only declined to cancel their last remaining reservation, they also threw more money into helping Valadao. We don’t know what exactly transpired on either side behind the scenes, but it’s very possible that both parties realized that the Latino voters who’d sat out midterm races in the past were coming to the polls this time.
On election night, though, that last-minute flurry might have looked like it was a mistake. Results showed Valadao beating Cox 54-46, and major media organizations called the race for the incumbent that evening. However, Cox made up ground as more ballots were counted, and on Nov. 26, almost three full weeks after Election Day, Cox took the lead for the first time and never gave it up.
Valadao gives the GOP a candidate with experience running far ahead of the ticket, but Cox proved last year that he was more than up to the task of beating him. Valadao may also have a tougher time winning over the crossover voters he’s depended on now that Cox is the incumbent.