Dorian is headed towards Florida. As it is travels across the Bahamas today, it is expected to strengthen into a Cat 4 hurricane before making landfall late Monday. It could be the strongest hurricane to hit Florida's east coast since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
Here are some images and projections of Dorian’s path, timing and intensity. Stay tuned as the forecasts evolve. Updates are at the bottom of the diary and in the comments section, contributed by many who care.
Friday morning forecasts show a slightly southern shift of the storm track and a slower moving hurricane, both bad news for Florida. It could become a prolonged weather event over much of Florida early next week.
From www.nhc.noaa.gov
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
Keep in mind, tropical force winds will hit affected areas hours before landfall.
A message from the NWS -
There is still considerable uncertainty about the path of Dorian beyond the next 48 hours. Different models provide a range of possibilities, from crossing the Florida peninsula into the Gulf then turning northwards to veering off Northeast while approaching Florida. The models will converge in the next 24 to 48 hours, so it is best for those in the potential path to prepare for the worst and keep a close eye on weather sources.
A visual forecast — based on one of the hurricane forecasting models -
Imagery from GOES-16 satellite at 7:40 a.m. EDT -
A mesmerizing portrait of Dorian with lightning flashes from last night —
An explanation of the various competing forces that will decide the fate of Dorian and of millions in its path -
Steering analysis of the storm track. Amazing stuff.
All eyes are on Dorian — satellites, weather balloons, meteorologists and those magnificent weather scientists and pilots in their flying machines -
Some images from the mission aboard the Lockheed WP-3D Orion four-engine turboprop aircraft, packed with radar and other instruments —
A look at the swirling monster from space -
NASA CloudSat Image based 3D animation from Tuesday, Aug 27, 2019 -
This will be a big one, one can only pray that it avoids landfall.
Here is a scary comparison being made ...
Hurricane Tracks and Distribution
The following map from NASA shows the tracks of all tropical cyclones during the 1985-2005 time period. The Pacific Ocean west of the International Date Line sees more tropical cyclones than any other basin, while there is almost no activity in the Atlantic Ocean south of the Equator. Tropical cyclones do not form around the equator.
A large number of Atlantic hurricanes originate near the Cape Verde islands, off the west coast of Africa and are know as the “Cape Verde hurricanes.” These hurricanes form from a tropical wave that has passed over or near the Cape Verde islands after exiting the coast of West Africa. Hurricanes Dean (2007), Ivan (2004), Floyd (1999) Hugo (1989), Fran (1996), Isabelle (2003) are examples of Cape Verde hurricanes.
Map of the cumulative tracks of all tropical cyclones during the 1985-2005 time period. Credit: NASA. www.nasa.gov/...
Yes, hurricanes are not uncommon, but there is a link between climate change and hurricane intensities.
Epilogue
For those in the projected path, please keep close watch on the various sources of information, take heed of local warnings to evacuate and make preparations early. And let’s all wish/hope/pray that Dorian veers off into the Atlantic ocean.
Resources and Further Reading
- Hurricane Preparedness Tips and Advice as the Storm Approaches — www.dailykos.com/…
- National Hurricane Center — www.nhc.noaa.gov
- Hurricane preparedness — www.ready.gov/… and www.nhc.noaa.gov/…
- Hurricane Dorian: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly — www.dailykos.com/...
- How To Tame a Hurricane — www.dailykos.com/…
Updates
King tides — one more thing that will make Dorian’s effects worse. The (new) moon is aligned with the Sun and the moon is at its closest distance to Earth today; hence, tides will be exceptionally high.
2 p.m. update from NHC — Dorian is Cat 3 with 115 mph winds.
Lightning, a precursor to rapid intensification.
Getting stronger, neat Cat 4 already.
8:30 p.m. special advisory from NHC — ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h).
