Stan Greenberg is a top Democratic pollster. He just released the results of a phone survey that cuts through the clouds of media dust and shows who’s leading the presidential horse race—and why:
Most commentators are failing to read how ordinary Americans, independents, some Republicans and Democrats, are responding to President Trump and how determined they are to bring an end to his presidency and its defining fight against immigration and a multicultural America. Voters are paying intense attention to politics, and their conclusions indicate a landslide win for the Democrats in 2020, whether they nominate somebody like Vice President Joe Biden or somebody like Senator Elizabeth Warren.
He looks at trends such as immigration and intensity (especially anti-Trump intensity), all of which point toward an even larger blue wave in 2020. He has Biden over Trump 49-41 and Warren over Trump 49-43, with Amash taking 7 and 4, respectively. While Dems still won’t win white working class men and women, they won’t lose them by nearly as much as they have. And GOP enthusiasm is flagging among secular conservative and moderate Republicans, presumably because these people want to be able to show their faces at block parties and not have their houses egged on Halloween.
Greenberg concludes in a way that will comfort those who spent two nights recently screaming at Jake Tapper to get his head out the Republican butt:
While the primary debates have raised many legitimate flags for commentators, the voters are focused on the big picture and big choices before the country. This has produced new clarity in this transformative election.
Voters, in other words, get it.
P.S. It turns out that Greenberg has a book on this theme coming out soon, RIP GOP: How the New America Is Dooming the Republicans. The subtitle really should end with “(Good!)”