The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PR-Gov: Puerto Rico’s Supreme Court unanimously ruled Wednesday that Pedro Pierluisi was unconstitutionally sworn in as governor on Friday, and they ordered him to resign within hours. Pierluisi soon departed and Justice Minister Wanda Vázquez was sworn in as governor that evening.
Campaign Action
The Supreme Court’s decision, which cannot be appealed, ended nearly a week of confusion about who was in charge of the island. Outgoing Gov. Ricardo Rosselló, who was about to resign in disgrace, nominated Pierluisi last Wednesday to fill the vacant post of secretary of state, the office that is first in line for the governorship. Puerto Rico’s constitution requires the secretary of state to be confirmed by both the commonwealth’s House and Senate, but Pierluisi was sworn into that job Wednesday evening before any legislators had a chance to vote.
The House gave Pierluisi an affirmative vote on Friday about an hour before Rosselló’s departure took effect, but the Senate postponed their own hearings until the following week. However, that didn’t stop Pierluisi from being sworn in as governor on Friday. Pierluisi cited a 2005 law that said that the secretary of state didn’t need to have received legislative confirmation from both chambers if they need to take over as governor to make his case that he was indeed Puerto Rico’s legitimate leader. However, the court ruled that this provision was unconstitutional on Wednesday in the decision that ousted Pierluisi from the governor’s office.
Senate
● CO-Sen: This week, nonprofit head Michelle Ferrigno Warren announced that she was joining the Democratic primary to face GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. Warren is a consultant for the immigration advocacy group National Immigration Forum, and she founded a nonprofit called Open Door Ministries that works to alleviate poverty in Denver.
Gubernatorial
● MS-Gov: Mississippi held its statewide primary on Tuesday, and while Attorney General Jim Hood claimed the Democratic nomination for governor with 69% of the vote, the GOP contest will go to an Aug. 27 runoff.
Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves took first place with 49% of the vote, just a hair below the majority he needed to win outright. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr., whose father and namesake was the state's Democratic governor in the mid-1970s, defeated state Rep. Robert Foster 33-18 to claim the other runoff spot. This will be the first time that a GOP gubernatorial primary has gone to a second round since 1991.
Reeves, who has the support of termed-out Gov. Phil Bryant, has been the frontrunner for the entire contest. The lieutenant governor, who spent years building a war chest, also had a massive financial advantage over Waller, who only entered the race in February.
However, Reeves has made many enemies within the party during his time in politics. The Clarion-Ledger wrote that Reeves, who leads the state Senate, has run the chamber "with an iron fist," which has alienated a number of party regulars. One unnamed state senator spoke to Mississippi Today back in January and said of Reeves, "Somebody said they like his policies, like on tax cuts, but that he might not have the best bedside manner."
Reeves' other intra-party detractors have been far less kind. Former state party chair Billy Powell, who supports Waller, declared that the lieutenant governor's "arrogance turns me off," and other Reeves critics have also liberally used the word arrogant to describe him. Waller, by contrast, has portrayed himself as considerably more friendly in tone: One of his early Facebook ads unsubtly asked, "Shouldn't you like your candidate for governor? Now you can." Still, the first round of the primary was largely a civil affair, and no one ran any negative TV commercials against any of the candidates.
There are some real policy differences between Reeves and Waller. Reeves has vigorously opposed a Medicaid expansion, while Waller has argued that federal money is necessary to keep rural hospitals open. Waller also believes that a gas tax is needed to repair the state's damaged infrastructure (nearly 500 bridges have been closed because of safety problems), while Reeves is against the idea. Foster largely shared Waller's views, so it's very possible that his voters will break for the former chief justice. However, it will still take a lot to stop Reeves from claiming a majority later this month after he came so close on Tuesday.
Mississippi is usually a reliably red state, but Hood may be able to pull off an upset in November. Hood is the only Democrat to have won a statewide election in over a decade, and he claimed his fourth term in 2015 by a 55-45 margin. Republicans aren't wasting any time attacking Hood now that he's the Democratic nominee, though, and Mississippi Strong, the RGA's affiliated group, went up with their first TV spot on Tuesday night.
The commercial tries to tie Hood to national Democrats by accusing him of standing with Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the "radical liberal resistance, suing to stop the Trump agenda." The only time the ad actually mentions anything specific that Hood has done, though, is when the narrator declares that he "refused to fight to stop Obamacare." The GOP has used this type of cookie-cutter messaging in plenty of other red state elections, with mixed success. However, it could still be effective in a state that Trump took 58-40.
Hood also faces another serious obstacle. Mississippi's 1890 state constitution contains a Jim Crow-era provision that, as long as it remains in force, could make it nearly impossible for him to prevail. This law requires gubernatorial candidates to win both a majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the state House; if someone fails to hit both of these benchmarks, the state House picks the new governor from the top two finishers.
As we have previously shown, Mississippi's current system discriminates against black voters and consequently Democrats, and not just because Republicans gerrymandered the legislature. If the GOP-led House gets to choose the new governor there's little question that they'd pick Team Red's nominee no matter which candidate actually won the most votes. Several black voters are currently suing to overturn this law.
House
● FL-13: This week, former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker didn't quite rule out the possibility that he could seek the GOP nod to challenge Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist, but he didn't sound at all enthusiastic about it. Baker told Florida Politics that he was unaware of a small Twitter account that was trying to draft him for this race, and that he had "no present intention or plans to run for office again." Baker was last on the ballot in 2017 when he narrowly lost a nonpartisan race to reclaim the mayor's office to Democratic incumbent Rick Kriseman 51.6-48.4.
● MA-09: This week, Norwell Selectman Joe Rull told WPRI that he was "definitely thinking about" challenging Rep. Bill Keating in the Democratic primary.
Rull, who was a top aide to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh until 2015, doesn't seem to have anything against the congressman, whom he said had "done a good job." Rull continued by saying, "It's more about the voters and how they feel — if we can get more out of our Congress." Rull dropped his party affiliation during the last cycle but said that he'd run in the Democratic primary if he sought this seat.
This district, which includes Cape Cod and the South Shore of Massachusetts Bay, backed Hillary Clinton 53-42. Keating ended June with a strong $1.46 million war chest, so beating him would be an expensive affair.
● NC-02: Wake County School Board member Monika Johnson-Hostler, a former executive director of the North Carolina Coalition Against Sexual Assault, announced Wednesday that she would seek the Democratic nod to take on GOP Rep. George Holding. She joins Marine veteran Scott Cooper, who has been running for a few months, in the primary for this 53-44 Trump seat in the Raleigh exurbs. Holding outraised Cooper by a modest $362,000 to $300,000 margin during the last quarter, and the incumbent held a $408,000 to $178,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of June.
● NC-09: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund labels Democrat Dan McCready as "Greedy Dan McCready" in its first TV spot ahead of next month's special election in North Carolina, but a photo watermark reveals that it was the CLF that got greedy.
As the DSCC's Ben Seltzer first spotted, CLF's spot features a photo of McCready with the logo of the stock footage company Dissolve still visible, dead center, as a clip of random people walking rolls in the background. Companies use watermarks like these to prevent photos or videos from being shared that haven't been properly licensed, or to at least expose biters who circulate such images anyway—like CLF. While Seltzer tweeted his keen observation on Tuesday evening (and Dissolve took notice as well), the watermark remains in CLF's commercial as of Wednesday evening.
The NRCC is also out with a new ad that, once again, attacks "Greedy McCready." Even the ad makers seem to think this is a really awful joke, though, since the commercial concludes with one of the actors burying her head in her desk in frustration after hearing it one time too many.
McCready's allies at VoteVets, meanwhile, are launching what Politico reports is a $200,000 buy, and thankfully, their spot is free of both watermarks and bad nicknames. Instead, it stars a combat medic named Cynthia Lauer saying she's supporting McCready, a fellow veteran, because he's "committed to working across the aisle to deliver quality health care to every family." Lauer goes on to say that Dan Bishop was the lone Republican in the North Carolina legislature to oppose bipartisan legislation to lower prescription drug prices.
● NJ-07: This week, state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. picked up an endorsement from Kevin McCarthy, his counterpart in the U.S. House. Kean, who brought in more money during the second quarter than all but one other GOP House challenger, faces tax attorney Rosemary Becchi in the primary to take on Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski.
● NJ-11: Republicans still don't have a credible candidate against freshman Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, and two local politicians who considered running in 2018 don't seem very excited about challenging her now.
State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio explicitly didn't rule out the idea when he told the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein, "You never know," but Pennacchio also said he wasn't planning to do it. Pennacchio formed an exploratory committee last year for a possible bid but ended up staying out, explaining that he was unsure about getting endorsements from the Essex and Passaic County Republican Parties and that without it, "Why go through all this trouble?"
Wildstein also writes that there's been some talk that former Morris County Freeholder Christine Myers, who now works for the Small Business Administration, could get in, but that she also seems unlikely. Myers didn't rule it out, though, telling Wildstein, "If I were to ever decide to jump in the pool, you will be the first journalist to know." Myers met with the NRCC last year, but she also stayed out.
This suburban North Jersey seat backed Trump by a narrow 49-48 margin, but it hasn't been very friendly turf for Team Red recently. Sherrill was one of the top Democratic fundraisers last year, and she won this seat by a lopsided 57-42 margin. Sherrill has continued to build up her war chest since she arrived in D.C.: She took in $589,000 during the last quarter and ended June with $1.15 million in the bank.
● NY-03: Wellness professional Melanie D'Arrigo announced Tuesday that she would challenge Rep. Tom Suozzi in the Democratic primary for this 53-47 Clinton seat on northern Long Island. D'Arrigo, who has been active with progressive groups, also managed local Assemblyman Tony D'Urso's successful re-election campaign last year as a volunteer, so she may have some useful connections.
D'Arrigo said that Suozzi, who has a moderate reputation, has been too willing to give Republicans what they want. She faulted the incumbent for belonging to the Problem Solvers Caucus, saying, "He trades a dollar for a quarter every time. It only benefits Republicans; it does not benefit Democrats." D'Arrigo also argued that Suozzi is too close to corporate interests.
Suozzi has a long electoral history on Long Island, and he won this seat in a crowded and expensive 2016 primary almost seven years after he lost re-election as Nassau County executive. The incumbent raised $370,000 during the last quarter and had $1.4 million in the bank at the end of June.
● NY-15: On Wednesday, former New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito joined the Democratic primary for this safely blue open seat in the Bronx. Mark-Viverito lives just outside this seat in Manhattan's East Harlem neighborhood, which she says is just a subway stop away from the district. Mark-Viverito's old City Council seat, which she represented until the end of 2017, also included the South Bronx as well as her East Harlem home.
Mark-Viverito, who is originally from Puerto Rico, made history back in 2014 when she became the first person of color to serve as speaker of the City Council. While plenty of observers thought that she'd be too loyal to newly-elected Mayor Bill de Blasio, she ended up successfully pressuring him on a number of important issues, including getting him to support closing the prison on Rikers Island and to provide attorneys for undocumented immigrants. She also passed a bill putting restrictions on how much the NYPD and Department of Corrections could cooperate with federal Immigration and Custom Enforcement detainer requests.
In February, Mark-Viverito ran in the very crowded special election for New York City public advocate, a contest where it took just a plurality of the vote to win. However, Democratic City Councilor Jumaane Williams ended up defeating Republican Eric Ulrich 33-19, while Mark-Viverito took a distant third place with 11%.
Mark-Viverito was also in the news last month after messages were released from now-former Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló and his allies. Rosselló hurled misogynist insults at Mark-Viverito, and she responded by calling the governor's words "an attack on all women and the people of Puerto Rico in general."
A number of Democrats are already in, and the field may be about to get even larger since Marlene Cintron, the president of the Bronx Overall Economic Development Corp., filed paperwork with the FEC this week. A crowded primary could be very good news for conservative City Councilman Ruben Diaz Sr., who has always had a solid local base of support in the Bronx despite his long record of homophobia and opposition to abortion rights.
● PA-08: On Tuesday, former police officer and Army veteran Teddy Daniels became the first Republican to announce a bid against Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. This seat, which includes Scranton, swung from 55-43 Obama to 53-44 Trump, but Cartwright won re-election last year by a convincing 55-45 margin against a self-funding opponent.
● TX-22: Republicans got their first candidate in the primary for this competitive open seat on Wednesday when Greg Hill, a local judge in Brazoria County, announced that he would run. Hill, who said that he would resign his judicial post, is a former city councilor in Pearland.
GOP Rep. Pete Olson announced nearly two weeks ago that he would retire from this district, which includes the southern Houston suburbs, but while Team Red still has a large bench here, our friend the Great Mentioner has been uncharacteristically quiet when it comes to throwing out the names of other potential GOP candidates.
A few weeks ago, Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls said that he was considering challenging Olson for renomination, and that he anticipated deciding in November or December. However, we haven't heard anything from him since Olson called it quits. Other than Hill, we haven't heard the names of any other prospective Republican contenders. Texas' filing deadline is Dec. 9, so Olson's would-be successors don't have too much time to decide what they're doing.
This seat was safely red turf at the start of the decade, but it's been moving sharply to the left in recent years as it has diversified and the GOP repelled its numerous college-educated voters: In 2012, it voted for Mitt Romney by a 62-37 margin, but in 2016, it only gave Donald Trump a 52-44 win, and last year, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz prevailed by just a hair, 50.0 to 49.3. Olson, meanwhile, only beat Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni 51-46 in his last race, despite the fact that outside spenders offered little help for his opponent. Kulkarni and a few other Democrats announced that they would run before Olson retired.
● TX-31: GOP Rep. John Carter pushed back on speculation that he could retire on Wednesday by tweeting, "I am as committed as ever to bring more Texas to Washington and keep Washington out of Texas! #2020." Carter only won 51-48 last year in an expensive race against Democrat MJ Hegar, who is now running for the Senate. So far, though, no notable Democrats have entered the race for this seat, which includes Austin's northern suburbs.
● VA-05: Cameron Webb, a physician at the University of Virginia, announced Wednesday that he would seek the Democratic nod to take on freshman GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman. Webb was a White House fellow during the final six months of Barack Obama's presidency and the first six months of Donald Trump's term. Webb would also be the first African American to represent this seat, which includes Charlottesville and south-central Virginia.
Webb joins Marine veteran Roger Dean Huffstetler in the primary (and yes, thankfully it is a primary this cycle). Huffstetler outraised Riggleman $302,000 to $282,000 during the last quarter, and he even had a $227,000 to $185,000 cash-on-hand advantage over the incumbent at the end of June. However, Team Red has a lot of room-for-error in this 52-41 Trump seat. Last year, Riggleman beat Democrat Leslie Cockburn 53-47 despite getting decisively outspent.
Mayoral
● Wichita, KS Mayor: Wichita held its nonpartisan primary on Tuesday, and GOP Mayor Jeff Longwell and Democratic state Rep. Brandon Whipple advanced to the November general election. Longwell took first place with 32%, while Whipple narrowly outpolled retired banker Lyndy Wells 25.9-25.2 for the second general election spot. We’ll have a more detailed rundown on this race in our next Digest.
Other Races
● Queens County, NY District Attorney: On Tuesday evening, public defender Tiffany Cabán conceded defeat to Queens Borough President Melinda Katz in the June 25 Democratic primary. Cabán's team had been suing to get dozens of affidavit ballots tallied, but the judge ruled against counting most of them. Katz's lead now stands at 55 votes, a small drop from the 60-vote edge she held after the recount ended, and she should have no trouble winning the November general election in this very blue borough.
Katz's victory is also a win for the state and local party establishment. However, while Cabán did end up falling short, her very close showing should still give the once-mighty Queens Democratic Party another scare.
The local Democratic machine took a serious hit last year when Rep. Joe Crowley, the borough's party chairman, lost renomination to Ocasio-Cortez in a shocker. This June, they also lost the first contested primary for a seat on the Queens Civil Court in decades. Katz did emerge with the win in the end in the contest for district attorney, but her very tight victory could still foreshadow problems for the establishment in coming elections.