The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Data: We've been making a fair number of additions to our treasure trove of Daily Kos Elections data in recent months, so here's a recap of data highlights and a rundown of what's new.
Campaign Action
In the new category, we have a crowd-sourced naming guide for congressional districts, detailed ancestry and country of origin data for every district, a newly redesigned equal-area congressional district hexmap, and spreadsheets to help you figure out how counties, state legislative districts, and congressional districts overlap. We're always busy updating our open seats and special elections spreadsheets as events warrant, and quarterly fundraising numbers are available as well.
You can find detailed congressional district demographics, including race, education, income, religion, eligible voters, and population growth. And don't forget the guide to the 116th Congress, which includes a wealth of data on each district and its member! Finally, there's our ever-popular presidential and statewide election results by congressional district, legislative district, and media market.
Tuesday, Sep 17, 2019 · 6:45:54 PM +00:00
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David Nir
NC-Sen: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis' new TV ad, which is part of a reported $2.2 million buy stretching through the March 3 primary, is pure Trump-time. The spot features footage of Donald Trump praising Tillis for opposing sanctuary cities and exhorting North Carolina to re-elect him. Tillis, who has pissed off purists with his occasional hints of reluctance toward the Trump agenda, faces a challenge from self-funding businessman Garland Tucker in the GOP primary.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: So you spend two years busting your ass to get to the Senate only to lose a close campaign, then you beg your governor to appoint you to your state's other Senate seat that luckily just happened to become vacant right after your loss, and so finally, you wind up a member of that august body. What then do you tell folks, not even a year after your arrival?
"I haven't been here that long, thank God" is what Martha McSally shared with onlookers at a Senate Banking Committee hearing just the other day. McSally was explaining that she wasn't serving in the Senate when the last housing crisis struck, but she immediately realized that thanking the deity for that fact was a bad look and backtracked by saying, "Sorry, I shouldn't have said that."
Funny enough, this isn't the first time McSally has expressed gratitude that divine will has kept her from the Senate. At a town hall in February of 2017, when confronted by constituents angry about Donald Trump nominating Betsy DeVos as education secretary, McSally averred, "I am not in the Senate. Thank God." Less than a year later, she kicked off her failed campaign for the Senate. Perhaps God is trying to tell her something. (Hat-tip.)
● CO-Sen: There goes another one: Former diplomat Dan Baer just became the third notable Colorado Democrat to abandon a Senate bid and endorse former Gov. John Hickenlooper. He follows former state Sen. Mike Johnston and former U.S. Attorney John Walsh. (Lotta "formers" in this one, huh?) Incidentally, that trio of departees were the field's biggest fundraisers in the second quarter of the year.
A whole bunch of other Democrats are still running, though, including former state House Majority Leader Alice Madden, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, state Sen. Angela Williams, and nonprofit directors Michelle Ferrigno Warren and Lorena Garcia.
● NC-Sen: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis just announced that he'd start spending $2.2 million on TV and radio ads, even though North Carolina's primary is not until March 3.
Tillis faces a primary challenge from self-funding businessman Garland Tucker, and limited polling has shown him in a weak position for an incumbent. While Donald Trump endorsed Tillis back in June, many Republican voters still despise the senator for his perceived apostasies: An August survey from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, found Tillis with an abysmal 34-38 favorability rating among Republicans while Trump had an 86-12 score.
It will be interesting to see whether Trump can rehabilitate Tillis with the deplorables. What do cult members do when Dear Leader tells them to love someone they hate? Early signs suggest there may be limits to Trump's sway: At a Trump rally in Fayetteville on Monday evening ahead of the special election in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, Tillis was booed after he was introduced to the crowd.
Tillis' super-early advertising foray is also an indication of worry, though in a way, he's not spending all that much. According to the campaign, the $2.2 million is supposed to last from next week through the primary, which is over five months away. That's only about $90,000 a week, and while Tillis may be able to lock in lower rates by booking time so early, he'll also be competing on the airwaves with North Carolina's Super Tuesday presidential primary.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: A new poll from Southern Media and Opinion Research, conducted on behalf of unidentified clients, finds Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards narrowly getting forced into a runoff in next month's gubernatorial race. Edwards takes 47% in the survey, while his nearest opponent, GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham, is well back at 24. Republican businessman Eddie Rispone brings up the rear with 16, while 13% are undecided.
Ordinarily, voters in a state as red as Louisiana who haven't yet made up their minds would lean toward Republicans, so even if SMOR's numbers are on target, it could be difficult for Edwards to clear the 50% mark and avoid a second round (which would take place on Nov. 16). Pollster Bernie Pinsonat says, though, that "once the undecided votes are redistributed," Edwards would in fact earn a majority, though how that redistribution was performed is unclear. Limited polling has generally shown Edwards in the 40s, with only one survey finding him over 50.
It's also not clear whether SMOR included the three minor candidates who are also running. Two of them, as it happens, could depress Edwards' support: One independent, Gary Landrieu, shares a surname of the Pelican State's best-known Democratic political family (he's in fact a cousin of Mitch and Mary Landrieu), while another is an African American Democrat, Omar Dantzler.
● NH-Gov: Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky, who formed an exploratory committee in July, looks increasingly set to join the Democratic primary for governor.
On Thursday, Volinsky announced the names of 67 new supporters, the most prominent of which is former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. He also spoke at the state party's convention last weekend and was announced as a "candidate for governor"; while he didn't declare a bid at the time, he gave a very candidate-like speech and promised a decision "in the next six weeks."
One other Democrat, state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes, is already seeking to challenge GOP Gov. Chris Sununu next year, though 2018 nominee Molly Kelly is also still considering the race.
House
● CA-53: San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez, who had said she's considering a bid for California's 53rd Congressional District, has formed a campaign committee and promised an announcement about her plans on Saturday. Gómez would be the second notable Democrat to join the race for this safely blue seat, which is now open following veteran Rep. Susan Davis' recent decision to retire.
● KS-03: Amanda Adkins, a former chair of the Kansas GOP and one-time advisor to ex-Gov. Sam Brownback, officially kicked off her campaign for the 3rd Congressional District earlier this week. She's the second notable Republican seeking to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids, following Sara Hart Weir, a former CEO of the National Down Syndrome Society.
Both, however, bring baggage with them. Adkins' ties to Brownback, whose disastrous fiscal stewardship of the state handed the governorship to Democrats last year, will make her a target for Team Blue—ties that she's already trying to downplay. Weir, meanwhile, has roiled the disability community thanks to her efforts to curry favor with the Trump administration, particularly Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, who has pushed for funding cuts for the Special Olympics and programs to help deaf and blind students.
This may be it for the GOP, though, since we haven't heard about any other potential candidates considering bids here. This district, located in the Kansas City suburbs, has moved sharply to the left in recent years: After voting for Mitt Romney by a 54-44 margin in 2012, it gave Hillary Clinton a narrow 47-46 edge in 2016, and according to an analysis at OurCampaigns, Democrat Laura Kelly romped to a 56-37 win here in last year's race for governor.
● MI-10: Former state Sen. Phil Pavlov, who'd been mentioned as a possible candidate for Michigan's 10th Congressional District when it opened up in July, now says he's considering a bid. He doesn't sound especially keen, though, telling WDET he is "enjoying life outside of politics" and is "not ready" to announce a decision just yet. Pavlov ran for this seat the last time it was open, in 2016, but lost the GOP primary by a 38-28 margin to Paul Mitchell, who is quitting after just two terms.
● NY-11: Disgraced ex-Rep./ex-con Michael Grimm, who has been considering a second comeback bid at least since March, now says he'll decide at the end of the month. Grimm pleaded guilty to tax fraud and resigned not long after winning re-election in 2014. He served an eight-month sentence, which he feverishly blamed on his political opponents, then badly lost last year in the Republican primary to Rep. Dan Donovan, who had succeeded him in a special election.
Donovan, however, went on to lose in the midterms to Democrat Max Rose, who will be one of the GOP's top targets next year. Republican power-brokers, though, have already made it clear they prefer Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, the only notable challenger in the race.
● TX-11: Republican state Rep. Brooks Landgraf, who'd been considering a bid for Texas' open 11th Congressional District, has decided to seek re-election to his current post instead. So far, Midland City Councilman J. Ross Lacy is the only Republican running for this extremely red seat in rural west Texas.
● TX-17: Two new Republicans are considering bids for Texas' open 17th Congressional District: James Edge, the district director for retiring Rep. Bill Flores, and Bob Yancy, who just stepped down as chair of the Baylor Scott & White hospital in order to evaluate his options. Yancy previously ran in a special election for the state House in 2011, losing 58-42 to fellow Republican John Raney.
● WI-05: Matt Neumann, the son of former Rep. Mark Neumann, says that he's weighing a bid for Wisconsin's open 5th District, which could set up a pretty amusing matchup for the Republican nomination. That's because Matt Walker, the son of former Gov. Scott Walker, is also considering the race, meaning the two Matts could reprise a battle fought by their fathers in 2010, when the elder Walker defeated Neumann senior 59-39 in that year's GOP primary for governor.
Mark Neumann represented a different district in Congress, Wisconsin's 1st, so he wouldn't exactly be trying to hand down his seat to his son. (Paul Ryan succeeded him in the House.) However, he did pass on his real estate development business to Matt Neumann, who is now CEO. The firm's slogan is "a family company creating a family of companies," which makes exactly as much sense as you care to make of it.
Meanwhile, state Rep. Scott Allen is also reportedly thinking about joining the contest. We can cross off former state Sen. Leah Vukmir, though: The GOP's 2018 Senate nominee announced on Thursday that she would not run here.
● WI-07: State Rep. Romaine Quinn became the latest local Republican to defer to state Sen. Tom Tiffany in the expected special election for Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District. Quinn had been considering a bid of his own but endorsed Tiffany instead.
