LA-Gov: The media company Nexstar is out with a survey of the Oct. 12 all-party primary for governor of Louisiana from the GOP firm JMC Analytics, and they find Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards taking first place with 41% of the vote, several points below the majority he’ll need to avoid a November runoff. Rep. Ralph Abraham leads wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone, a fellow Republican, 24-16 for second place, which would earn the congressman the second spot in a runoff. Nexstar released the poll, which has a sample size of 600, just ahead of the Thursday debate TV that they are co-hosting.
JMC’s results are similar to the other two polls we saw in September, though both those surveys showed Edwards a bit closer to a majority. A Southern Media and Opinion Research poll conducted in early September for unidentified clients had Edwards at 47%, and they gave Abraham the same 24-16 lead over Rispone that JMC recently found. A Remington Research poll conducted for Abraham had Edwards at 45%, while Abraham’s 27-19 lead against Rispone was the same 8-point advantage that both SMOR and JMC found.
While all three polls agree that Abraham still leads Rispone for the second place spot in a potential runoff, JMC also finds the wealthy businessman gaining ground now that he’s begun spending heavily on TV ads. JMC’s last survey from late April, which was conducted for a lobbying firm that works for a number of prominent industrial companies, found Edwards at 38%, while Abraham outpaced his fellow Republican 23-7.
It’s a bad sign for Abraham that JMC shows him stuck in place as the undecideds move to Rispone, but that’s actually a better trendline for the congressman than what his poll recently found. In June, Remington showed Abraham leading Rispone for second 34-8, so his own numbers have him losing support as Rispone gains ground (Edwards took 42% in that June poll).
There are just over three weeks to go before Election Day, but Abraham may have a very tough time defending his second-place position during that time. Rispone, who has been mostly self-funding his campaign, had $6.3 million to spend in early September compared to the $5.7 million Edwards had available, while Abraham had just $1.4 million in the bank.
Republicans have been gripping about Abraham’s underwhelming fundraising all year, and he announced all the way back in late June that he’d brought on some well-connected donors to help him turn things around. One of them, well-known Trump fundraiser Joe Canizaro, even confidently predicted a few weeks later, “A lack of funds will not be a problem for Ralph Abraham.” However, Abraham’s fundraising dream team doesn’t appear to have done much to help him reverse his continuing and problematic lack of funds.