Dorian, like Florence and other recent storms, Matthew, and as far back as Sandy are the new normal. Hurricanes that are huge, but more dangerous because they are slow — dumping monumental amounts of rainfall on areas in their paths.
These type of storms are the Earth’s way of redistributing the enormous amount of increased moisture released from Glacial melt. And this was not a surprise to those listening to the scientists or who have lived through one or more of these storms that ‘stall out’ — stall outs predicted by Professor Jennifer Francis of Rutgers in 2012.
(from Salvation Lakes)
Professor Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University has noted that the heating of the Arctic is not just causing the Sea Ice to melt, but it is also changing the way the World's Jet Stream functions. The Jet Stream normally moves South towards the equator, heats up, then moves north to the Arctic, then cools down, and slopes back down to the Equator.This is what drives all of the weather patterns across the world.However with the rapid heating of the Arctic, this cycle is being disrupted. The Jet Stream now flows South to the Equator, heats up and then when it heads North to the Arctic, it stalls out because the Arctic now is nearly as warm as the temperate zones.
The second way that Arctic amplification is expected to influence the jet stream and our weather is by increasing the “waviness” of the jet stream.Because of Arctic amplification, the northern peaks of waves, called ridges, will experience more warming than the southward dips, called troughs. This is expected to cause the ridges to stretch northward,which will increase the size of the waves. Larger swings in the jet stream allow frigid air from the Arctic to plunge farther south, as well as warm, moist tropical air to penetrate northward. These wavy flows often lead to record-breaking temperatures. Meteorologists have also known for a long time that larger jet-stream waves progress eastward more slowly, as will the weather systems associated with them. Consequently this represents another mechanism that will cause weather conditions to linger. 1
This weakened or 'broken' Jet stream is allowing warmer air farther north into the Arctic, and causing storms that usually move through a region in a short period of time to stall out. The result are storms like Hurricane Sandy in October of 2012, which shifted dramatically from the southern Atlantic to the Northeast - created a once in 700 year Hurricane that completely inundated New York and New Jersey, flooding Subways, cutting off roads, destroying houses and taking over 200lives.
Estimates as of June 2013 assess damage to have been over $68 billion (2013 USD),a total surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina.[4]At least 286 people were killed along the path of the storm in seven countries.[5]The severe and widespread damage the storm caused in the United States, as well as its unusual merge with a frontal system, resulted in the nicknaming of the hurricane by the media and several organizations of the U.S. government "Superstorm Sandy".2
While past hurricanes like Katrina have been unusually strong, they have had historical context for the region where they strike, the Gulf Coast or the Southern area of the Hemisphere. But Hurricane Sandy struck in the late fall and in the Northern Hemisphere. The “Biblical” rainstorm that hit Colorado did so during the dryer part of the Summer,typically when people are more concerned about Forest fires. Both of these weather events 'stalled' over a particular region and caused massive flooding – primarily due to the Jet stream failing to operate as it has usually operated in known history.
1Francis, Jennifer “Linking Weird Weather to the Rapid Warming of the Arctic” Environment 360, March 5,2012
2Shukman, David “Superstorm Sandy Triggers Climate Blame Game” BBC News, November 2, 2012
The point of all this can be summed up in the graphic of Hurricane Dorian above — under the category of “Movement” it is listed as ‘Stationary’ . A record breaking speed of winds but moving at under 10 miles an hour all the way down to not moving at all, is what is causing the coastline of the Bahamas to become submerged under feet of rain. All indicators of the effects of jet stream ‘waviness’ or weakness. A hurricane with this strength should be moving fast, not crawling.
When Florence hit North Carolina, it was only a Category 1. But it was slow, very slow. Florence was moving 2-3 miles per hour and inundated eastern NC with torrential flooding.
Slower winds than Matthew and Floyd, but rainfall and flooding were more damaging from Florence.
Property damage and economic losses in the United States reached $24.23 billion (2018 USD),[2] with $24 billion in damages in the Carolinas alone;[8] estimated insured losses ranged between $4.8–5 billion.[9][10] One preliminary estimate for North Carolina was nearly $17 billion (2018 USD), more than the damage from Hurricane Matthew and Hurricane Floyd in that state combined.[10]
As I watched the predictions of the path of Hurricane Dorian, I noticed the weather forecasters were also surprised by how slow Dorian is moving. And slow is more dangerous, and a sign that the Earth is redistributing excess moisture in this way and may be the new normal.
Our best hope is that Dorian heads out to sea, or speeds up its path, fingers crossed.
I don't like to leave readers with just bad news - so here is on solution I wrote about first here, years ago and referenced again last year at this time (9/7/18)
Geo-engineering Ancient Lakes - off setting sea level rise and Mega storms