Leading Off
● TX-17, WI-05: The race for the exits has turned into a stampede, as two more House Republicans announced their retirements on Wednesday: Bill Flores in Texas’ 17th Congressional District and Jim Sensenbrenner in Wisconsin’s 5th. That makes them the 13th and 14th members of their caucus to call it quits so far this year. Below, in our “House” section, we discuss each man’s career as well as the prospects for their respective districts.
Campaign Action
Most notably, 12 of these retirees—including Flores and Sensenbrenner—aren’t seeking another office. Dating back to 1984, an average of 11 Republicans each term have retired outright. After Wednesday’s developments, we’re now at 12, and it’s only September of the off-year.
What’s more, the pace of retirements now matches what we saw in 2017-18, when Republicans set an all-time record for open seats for their party. That mass flight presaged last year’s blue wave, which saw control of the House change hands for the first time since 2010.
And proportionally, the rate of departures is even higher now, since there are currently only 197 Republicans in the House while 241 had been elected to the previous Congress. This year’s exodus may therefore signal that Republican incumbents do not expect to win back the majority in 2020.
P.S. To stay on top of all the House retirement action—and boy is there ever a lot of that these days!—bookmark our open seat tracker, which we update immediately any time a member of Congress calls it quits.
Senate
● CO-Sen: 314 Action Fund, a group that’s supporting former Gov. John Hickenlooper, is out with a new survey from Public Policy Polling that shows Hickenlooper dominating in the Democratic primary. Hickenlooper leads former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff 60-9, while former state Sen. Mike Johnston, who dropped out of the race days after this poll was completed, takes third with 3%. Four other candidates are at 2% of the vote or less.
An earlier PPP poll, possibly (per reports) commissioned by the DSCC, found the former governor leading Romanoff by a smaller 44-12 spread. This earlier poll was conducted in mid-July, about a month before Hickenlooper ended his presidential campaign and entered the Senate race.
● KS-Sen: GOP Rep. Roger Marshall, who's been weighing a Senate bid, says he'll make a "major announcement" about his political future on Saturday morning at the Kansas State Fair (which also happens to be in his home district, the 1st).
● NH-Sen: On Wednesday, wealthy attorney Bryant "Corky" Messner, a veteran of the Army Rangers, announced that he'd seek the GOP nod to challenge Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. WMUR's John DiStaso writes that Republicans believe Messner is capable of self-funding his campaign, though it's not clear how much he's willing or able to spend.
However, Messner doesn't have very strong ties to the state he wants to represent. Messner has apparently lived his entire adult life in Denver, Colorado, and even founded his law firm there in 1995. DiStaso says that Messner has owned a vacation home in New Hampshire for about 12 years, but the candidate has only been a Granite State resident for less than two years.
Messner joins retired Army Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc and former state House Speaker Bill O'Brien in the GOP primary. Corey Lewandowski, who was Donald Trump's first campaign manager, is also considering running, and he recently told the New York Times that he'd likely decide in October. Lewandowski recently said that he wanted to see all the GOP candidates' third quarter fundraising totals, which are due Oct. 15, before he makes up his own mind.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: GOP Gov. Matt Bevin is out with a positive TV spot that argues he's turned around Kentucky's economy. The narrator briefly addresses the governor's well-deserved reputation for alienating people—including members of his own party—by describing him as "former military” and saying that “he ruffled some feathers but made tough choices we've always needed."
● LA-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is out with two new TV spots arguing that Louisiana's economy has improved since he took over in early 2016. Both spots come as the RGA has been running commercials blaming the governor for job losses.
The first ad features Edwards telling an audience, "When I took office, Louisiana was facing a $2 billion deficit that was crippling our state. But by bringing both parties together, we turned that deficit into a surplus." Edwards goes on to say that more people now have healthcare, funding for teachers and schools has increased, and that the state is "making the largest infrastructure investment in 30 years." He doesn't mention either of his GOP foes, Rep. Ralph Abraham or wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone, but warns, "My opponents want to take us back to where we were four years ago. But we've come too far to turn back now."
Edwards' second commercial begins with a reporter saying, "Gov. John Bel Edwards is releasing the state's unemployment report and the results show Louisiana has made huge progress." Other voices talk about how the state has achieved "the lowest unemployment rate in 11 years," created new jobs, and convinced companies to come to the state or remain there.
● MS-Gov: Mississippi's bitter GOP primary in this year's race for governor has yielded a bumper crop of poison fruit, leaving Republicans divided as they head into November's competitive general election.
After losing last week's runoff to Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. held off on endorsing his rival, saying he'd first talk to supporters before deciding what to do. Evidently, those supporters are as pissed at Reeves as Waller is, because on Tuesday, the ex-judge sent a terse text message to Mississippi Today reading, "No endorsement. I am staying out of the general election."
That news will taste plenty sweet, though, to state Attorney General Jim Hood, the Democratic nominee. While Hood had previously expressed hope that Waller would publicly back him, the fact that Waller won't make peace with Reeves is still very good news for the Democrat, as it suggests Reeves will have some trouble locking down voters from his own party. Given his state's red hue, Hood will need to win Republican votes in order to have a chance. Now he has a real opening.
And there's still a possibility, of course, that Waller could wind up endorsing Hood, given that the two men share the same position on the two biggest issues of the race: expanding Medicaid and increasing the state's gas tax to fix Mississippi's decaying infrastructure. For those apostasies, Reeves spent millions on TV advertisements labeling Waller a pawn of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders. Now he is reaping what he has sown.
● WV-Gov: Sen. Joe Manchin's decision not to run for governor may encourage other candidates to join community organizer Stephen Smith in the Democratic primary, and state Sen. Ron Stollings quickly expressed interest. Stollings, who describes himself as a "centrist," won his fourth term 57-43 last year in a southern West Virginia seat that had backed Donald Trump by a massive 78-19 spread.
Local CBS reporter Mark Curtis also writes that state House Minority Leader Tim Miley and former state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler are being talked about as possible candidates against GOP Gov. Jim Justice, but there's no word yet on their interest. Kessler ran for governor twice this decade, but he lost both primaries. In 2011, he entered the crowded special election to succeed Manchin, who had just been elected to the Senate, but the entire field was overshadowed by acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin. Tomblin took first with 40% of the vote, while Kessler finished a distant fifth with just 5%.
Five years later, Kessler ran to the left of his two intra-party opponents, Justice (who was a Democrat at the time) and former U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin, in a state where many conservatives still vote in Democratic primaries. Justice ended up beating Goodwin 51-25, while Kessler managed just 23%. Kessler then ran in last year's nonpartisan special election for state Supreme Court and took third with 12%. (The winner was former GOP Rep. Evan Jenkins, who won with 36% of the vote.)
Justice joined the GOP in 2017, and he now faces a primary challenge from state Commerce Secretary Woody Thrasher and former state Del. Mike Folk. Thrasher recently released a poll from WPA Intelligence that showed Justice leading him 38-23, with Folk at 11%. Justice's team quickly responded with their own late August survey from Public Opinion Strategies that gave the governor a 56-26 lead over Thrasher in a two-way contest.
Weirdly, though, the campaign did not include the toplines for a three-way race with Folk in their memo. Instead, it only described how well Justice was doing against his opponents in various regions of the state. Queries to the Justice campaign and its pollster have gone unanswered.
The only other GOP primary poll that has been released is a Research America Inc. survey for MetroNews, but it had a sample size of just 216, which is below the 300-person minimum that Daily Kos Elections requires in order to write up a poll.
House
● CA-25: This week, nonprofit executive Suzette Martinez Valladares announced that she was ending her campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Hill and would instead run for the state Assembly. Valladares was one of five GOP congressional candidates that NRCC recruitment chair Susan Brooks praised back in April, but she raised a very underwhelming $20,000 during her first three months in the contest. Two other notable Republicans, Navy veteran Mike Garcia and Lancaster City Councilor Angela Underwood-Jacobs, are running against Hill.
● CA-53: Veteran Rep. Susan Davis announced Wednesday that she would not seek an 11th term in California's reliably blue 53rd District, giving us a rare Democratic retirement from the House this cycle.
This seat, which includes the eastern San Diego area, backed Hillary Clinton 65-29, so Democrats should have no trouble keeping it as long as they avoid a top-two primary disaster. If anything, it's more likely that two Democrats will advance to the general election, especially since the March presidential primary will likely see Democratic voters turn out in disproportionate numbers.
Davis has been safe since the 2002 round of redistricting, but her initial 2000 campaign was a very competitive affair. Davis, who was a member of the state Assembly at the time, challenged three-term GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray for what was then California's 49th Congressional District, a seat located along the San Diego coast.
Both parties spent heavily on this race, and Davis ended up unseating Bilbray 50-46 as Al Gore was carrying the district 53-42; Bilbray would later say that he believed his vote to impeach Bill Clinton had cost him the race. The two former rivals would end up serving together after Bilbray won a 2006 special election for what was at the time the 50th District, though he would again lose, this time to Democrat Scott Peters in 2012 (in a seat that was by then renumbered the 52nd).
There are many local Democrats who could run for this seat, and whoever wins will join Davis as the only person in American history to represent a 53rd congressional district. However, while Assemblyman Todd Gloria, who is a former Davis aide, has been mentioned for years as a possible successor, he's currently running in next year's race for mayor of San Diego. Gloria doesn't sound like he's looking to switch races since he tweeted that he'd talked to Davis and says she told him "she's ready to volunteer on my mayoral campaign."
● KS-02, KS-Sen: On Wednesday, Kansas state Treasurer Jake LaTurner announced that he was dropping his bid for the Senate and would instead challenge freshman Rep. Steve Watkins in next August's GOP primary for the 2nd Congressional District.
About two weeks ago, multiple media outlets reported that there was intense speculation in Republican circles that Watkins could resign, though there's still no word on why his own party wants him to quit. Watkins has insisted he's the target of a "whisper campaign" by state GOP operatives and has said he's not going anywhere.
LaTurner didn't drop any obvious clues about what the rumors dogging the congressman might actually be in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, and he denied that he or his campaign have had anything to do with them. Instead, LaTurner declared, "When a campaign spends its time trying to pin blame on people, it's probably the reason why his campaign is such a wreck. They're not focusing on what matters the most, which is advancing President Trump's agenda."
In a separate interview with the Associated Press, LaTurner also insisted that the rumors dogging Watkins hadn’t played any role in his decision to run. Instead, LaTurner pointed to the congressman's narrow 48-47 win last year in a seat that Donald Trump had carried 56-37 as evidence that the incumbent was weak. The treasurer said, "It should not be a seat that is in play," and yet, he noted, "It was in play, big-time, this last election, and it's going to be in play again if he's the nominee for the party."
LaTurner's Senate campaign ended June with $470,000 on-hand, and he can immediately transfer all of that money to his new House bid. Watkins, by contrast, had just $260,000 in the bank to defend himself. However, he loaned his campaign a total of $475,000 last cycle, so he may be able to do some more self-funding. Last year, Watkins' wealthy father also donated $766,000 to a super PAC he'd set up to aid his son's campaign, so the congressman may once again get some familial help if he needs it.
● MN-02: Republican Rick Olson, who was elected to his only term in the Michigan state House back in 2010, announced Tuesday that he would challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District.
Olson is the first noteworthy Republican to enter the race for this competitive suburban Twin Cities seat, but he may have a tough time winning a competitive nomination contest. While Olson had a very conservative voting record during his time in the Michigan legislature, he's departed from modern GOP orthodoxy by supporting a carbon fee to fight global warming.
Olson also publicly considered switching parties in early 2012 after redistricting made his seat heavily Democratic. At the time, he explicitly said he believed that he'd have a better chance to win as a Democrat, though he insisted that his ideas and "independent way of thinking" wouldn't change. However, he ultimately decided not to seek re-election instead.
● NC-09: Republican Dan Bishop's new TV spot features footage of Donald Trump attacking Democrat Dan McCready at a recent rally. Trump goes on to praise Bishop as someone who will "defend your values."
● TX-17: On Wednesday, GOP Rep. Bill Flores announced that he would not seek a sixth term in Texas' solidly red 17th Congressional District.
Flores’ decision makes him the fifth Texas Republican who is leaving the House this cycle, and his decision came as a big surprise to local politicos: The Texas Tribune's Evan Smith tweeted that, while he'd long believed another two members of the state's congressional delegation might retire, Flores was not among those names. The Lone Star State's candidate filing deadline is in early December, so we still have three more months to see just how large the Texodus grows.
Flores is also the 14th Republican member of the House who has opted not to seek re-election this term; two more have resigned or will soon do so. By contrast, just four House Democrats have decided to leave the chamber so far, including California Rep. Susan Davis (see our CA-53 item). Flores' seat, which includes College Station, Waco, and a slice of the Austin suburbs, supported Donald Trump by a wide 56-39 margin, but Republican Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke here last year by a narrower 54-45 spread. This district should remain in Republican hands, but it's possible the trends here could give Democrats an opening.
In addition, Flores is now the third GOP House member elected during the 2010 red wave who is retiring (the two House Republicans who decided to resign, Pennsylvania's Tom Marino and Wisconsin's Sean Duffy, also were part of the class of 2010). That year, Flores, who led a natural gas company, decided to run for office for the first time against battle-tested Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards.
Edwards was one of the many Texas Democrats who was targeted for defeat in 2004 under the infamous DeLaymander, but he'd pulled off a miraculous 51-47 victory even as George W. Bush was carrying his seat by a brutal 70-30 margin. Four years later, Edwards beat underfunded Republican Rob Curnock 53-46 as John McCain was winning 67-32 in the district. Curnock tried again in 2010, but the self-funding Flores decisively outspent him to prevail in a runoff.
Flores earned some unwanted attention just before that runoff when the Texas Tribune reported that he'd voted in the 2008 Democratic primary for president. Flores insisted he was "casting his ballot against Barack Obama," though Flores refused to say if he'd voted for Hillary Clinton. However, the story didn't prevent Flores from beating Curnock by a convincing 64-36 margin.
Edwards ran an aggressive campaign to save his seat during what turned out to be a horrific year for his party. The incumbent attacked Flores for taking government bailout funds for his energy company, and accused the Republican of lying by claiming he'd voted for Curnock in 2008 when he actually hadn't voted at all in that election. Flores also ran into trouble when he told an interviewer that he didn't oppose raising the Social Security retirement age, only to say later that he'd misspoken because of a headache.
However, the GOP wave helped carry Flores to a lopsided 62-37 victory. Flores never again went through a competitive primary or general election, and despite his shaky voting record from 2008, he went on to become chair of the far-right Republican Study Committee.
● TX-22: This week, attorney Felicia Harris, who is a former member of the Pearland City Council, announced that she'd seek the GOP nod for Texas’ competitive (and open) 22nd District. Back in 2012, Harris ran in the primary for the neighboring 14th District, but she lost the runoff 63-37 to now-Rep. Randy Weber.
Harris joins Greg Hill, a former judge in Brazoria County, and wealthy party fundraiser Kathaleen Wall in the GOP primary. Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls also said back in July that he was considering running in the primary against Rep. Pete Olson, but he hasn't said anything publicly since the congressman’s retirement announcement some weeks later. However, local NBC reporter Syan Rhodes writes that, because state law would require Nehls to resign as sheriff if he were to run for Congress, he's not expected to announce a campaign until closer to the December filing deadline (Nehls previously said he would not seek re-election to his current post).
● WI-05: Longtime GOP Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner announced Wednesday that he would not seek another term representing Wisconsin's 5th Congressional District. Sensenbrenner, who was first elected in 1978, is the second-most senior member of the entire House after Alaska Rep. Don Young, who joined Congress in a 1973 special election.
Sensenbrenner's suburban Milwaukee seat, which includes most of Waukesha County, tightened slightly from 61-38 Romney to 57-37 Trump as the state as a whole was moving hard in the opposite direction. However, it's unlikely that this constituency will be in play next year: Republican Scott Walker carried it 61-37 despite narrowly losing last year's governor's race, and Republican Leah Vukmir took it 57-43 even as she was badly losing the Senate race to Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin.
Sensenbrenner has not faced a competitive contest since his very first primary 40 years ago. In that race, Sensenbrenner, who was a state senator at the time, beat state Rep. Susan Shannon Engeleiter 43.3-42.4, a margin of just under 600 votes.
Sensenbrenner was one of 13 House Republicans who managed Bill Clinton's impeachment, and one of the last two still serving (Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot is the other). He later served as chair of the powerful House Judiciary Committee and helped the Bush administration pass the Patriot Act after the 9/11 attacks. In 2011, he made news when he was quoted saying that First Lady Michelle Obama "lectures us on eating right while she has a large posterior herself." Sensenbrenner sent Obama a private apology, and she later mentioned the incident in her 2018 memoir, Becoming.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's special election in Georgia:
GA-HD-71: Republicans Philip Singleton and Marcy Sakrison will face each other in an October runoff. Singleton took 37% and Sakrison finished narrowly behind with 34%. Democrats were locked out of the second round after Jill Prouty came in third place with 22%. A third Republican, Nina Blackwelder, rounded out the voting with 7%. Republicans accounted for 78% of the vote to Democrats' 22%, which isn't far off from Donald Trump's 74-22 win here in 2016.
In a rare occurrence, this special election featured polling data, though, as we cautioned might be the case, it didn't quite hit the mark. The survey, conducted by GOP firm Rosetta Stone, found Sakrison in front with 30% percent, followed by Singleton with 22%, Prouty with 20%, and Blackwelder with 10%, with the remaining 18% percent undecided. While the poll did accurately forecast the top two vote getters, it flipped their order and undershot Singleton's support while making the race for the second spot appear much closer than it was. As we noted, it's notoriously difficult to capture special elections, due in part to their low turnout (which, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes, was just 11%).
While only one party will be on the ballot in next month's runoff, there will still be a layer of intrigue. This Republican-on-Republican battle will reflect one of the classic modern setups in American politics: party insider versus firebrand conservative. Singleton, an Army veteran, has received the backing of evangelical conservative commentator Erick Erickson, who has a history of opposing establishment figures in state politics such as state House Speaker David Ralston. Meanwhile, Sakrison, a teacher whose father is former Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, has received the backing of Ralston and many other notable Georgia Republicans.
Regardless of the winner, the outcome of this election assures the makeup of the Georgia State House will return to a 105-75 advantage in favor of Republicans.
