The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● OH-01: The Federal Elections Commission is looking into why vulnerable Republican Rep. Steve Chabot amended his first-quarter fundraising report in May to show an additional $124,000 in receipts—money that, presumably, did not just turn up under the cushions of the couch at campaign headquarters.
Campaign Action
Chabot has not offered any explanation for the irregularity, but, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, the matter concerns Chabot's longtime campaign manager, Jamie Schwartz. Schwartz, the paper reports, had owned a consultancy called the Fountain Square Group, which counted Chabot as its leading client. But that firm appears to be no more: It shut down this week, disconnected its phone line, and erased itself from the internet.
Schwartz's whereabouts are also unknown, it seems. Schwartz's father told the Enquirer that his son is no longer involved with the Chabot campaign. "[H]e's doing a lot of running around right now," Jim Schwartz said. "I couldn't tell you where he's at."
Adding to the strangeness, a letter from the FEC opening its inquiry was directed to the elder Schwartz in his capacity as treasurer for Chabot's campaign, but Schwartz insists he doesn't hold that role. If true, that would be a rather recent development, as Schwartz signed Chabot's most recent FEC filing (his second-quarter fundraising report) as campaign treasurer on July 15.
Chabot and his campaign have called themselves "victims of a financial crime," and the congressman has promised a "thorough audit" of his books. The two Democrats running against Chabot, Kate Schroder and Nikki Foster, have both slammed Chabot over the burgeoning scandal, leading a local Republican official to complain that they were "attack[ing] the victim of a crime for the sake of politics."
Chabot's shop, though, is no stranger to questionable financial practices. In 2017, USA Today reported that the Chabot campaign had paid over $150,000 to the congressman's son-in-law, Kevin Bischof, to design his website. While the practice of compensating family members for campaign work is legal (so long as market rates are paid) and common, good-government advocates have long decried it.
Chabot's team, of course, defended the expenditures, even though experts called his website outdated ("It looks like it was designed five or 10 years ago," said one), and even though Chabot was Bischof's only political client. The Chabot staffer who claimed to hire Bischof said, "By its very definition, nepotism would suggest that the individual employed is not qualified to do the job, and my answer to that is Kevin is more than qualified. He has the technical experience superior to others that I know in the field."
That staffer's name, by the way? Jamie Schwartz.
Senate
● KS-Sen: On Saturday, Rep. Roger Marshall announced that he would seek the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Marshall represents the most conservative of Kansas’ four congressional districts, which could give him a good base of support for what’s shaping up to be a crowded primary.
Marshall, who worked as an obstetrician before entering politics, won his western Kansas seat in 2016 in an expensive primary against Rep. Tim Huelskamp, a tea party favorite who had frequently come into conflict with his party’s leadership. Huelskamp had a particularly horrible relationship with then-Speaker John Boehner, and he reportedly plotted an unsuccessful coup against him in 2013. Boehner retaliated by getting Huelskamp kicked off the House Agriculture Committee, which angered local agriculture interests and farmers in this rural seat.
Huelskamp had urged Paul Ryan to give him his post back, but the new speaker declined to throw him a life preserver. Marshall and his establishment allies, including the powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in turn aired several ads arguing that Kansas needed to have a congressman on the powerful committee. Marshall won by a punishing 57-43 margin, and Boehner literally toasted Huelskamp's defeat on election night. (Huelskamp would get a small, but funny, bit of revenge the following year thanks to a misdirected crude birthday text from HuffPost reporter Matt Fuller.)
Marshall joins several Republicans, including disastrous 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach, in the primary, but everyone’s still waiting to see what U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will do. While Pompeo said a Senate bid was “off the table” in July, almost no one actually though he’d actually ruled out running. And sure enough, Pompeo did a trio of interviews with the Kansas media on Friday and refused to close the door on a campaign each time he was asked about this race.
Pompeo notably told reporter Jonathan Shorman that he was aware of the “noise” and speculation about his Senate plans, but that he intended to serve as the nation’s top diplomat as long as Donald Trump wanted him there. When Shorman pressed him about his non-answer, Pompeo responded, “You can take it however you’d like.” Pompeo already seems to be channeling Kansas’ most famous former senator by referring to himself in the third person, though, saying in another interview, “I’m flattered when people say Mike will be a good United States senator representing Kansas.”
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: The RGA's Putting Kentucky First group is up with a spot trying once again to link Democrat Andy Beshear to national Democrats and warning viewers that he "supported the government takeover of health care." What the Associated Press article the ad cites actually says is that Beshear wanted the consumer protections from the Affordable Care Act added to state law so Kentuckians "aren't subject to political games" in D.C. Beshear has called for protecting the state's Medicaid expansion.
The RGA commercial also declares that Beshear backed "giving taxpayer-funded healthcare benefits to people who can work, but choose not to." GOP Gov. Matt Bevin Bevin has pushed for a waiver that requires some Medicaid recipients to work, be in school, or do some sort of volunteering, a policy that would take 95,000 people off the state's rolls. A judge blocked the waiver earlier this year, and the issue is still in court. Beshear has denounced Bevin's plan and argued it would hurt rural health care.
Meanwhile, Bevin is out with a positive ad starring his children, including the four he adopted, who praise him for his work making it easier to bring foster children into permanent homes.
● MS-Gov: Democrat Jim Hood is going after GOP rival Tate Reeves on the air for the first time. Hood's spot declares that Reeves "gets chauffeured around to campaign fundraisers in a state-owned SUV." Hood then tells the audience, "I prefer a pick-up and visiting with folks all across Mississippi," and adds, "As governor, my tailgate will be open—not to special interests, but to you."
● WA-Gov: Republican Joshua Freed, who is a real-estate developer and a former mayor of the Seattle suburb of Bothell, announced Friday that he would challenge Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee. Freed lost close races for the state House in 2002 and 2004, and he was elected to the Bothell City Council in 2005. In 2014, Freed's council colleagues elected him mayor.
Freed held that post in 2015 when, in his capacity as a developer, he bulldozed three historic buildings without the required city permits or permission from the historic landmarks board in order to make way for an upscale subdivision. An independent investigation cleared Freed of any conflicts of interest or ethics violations over his purchase of the property, and he ended up paying a $2,000 fine for what he described as "unfortunate misunderstanding and not skulduggery."
House
● AL-02: Former state Attorney General Troy King filed paperwork with the FEC Thursday for a bid for the Republican nod to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Martha Roby, and King's consultant says a formal announcement will come later this month. Businessman Jeff Coleman, state Rep. Will Dismukes, and 2018 candidate Barry Moore are already running in the primary for this safely red southeastern Alabama seat.
King was a legal advisor to Gov. Bob Riley in 2004 when Riley appointed him to the vacant attorney general's office, and he won a full term two years later. However, King broke with most of the GOP establishment in 2009 when he said that state law protected at least some of the state's electronic bingo machines; Riley very much disagreed, and he formed a task force that later ordered raids of bingo establishments.
In 2010, Riley, along with Sens. Richard Shelby and Jeff Sessions, endorsed attorney Luther Strange's primary bid against King. King said at the time that the governor was upset with him for showing too much independence as attorney general, and he declared, "I have refused to let Bob Riley and the Good Old Boys Club use the attorney general's office for their personal and political ends." However, Strange unseated King by a wide 60-40 margin and won the office in November.
In 2017, Gov. Robert Bentley appointed Strange to the U.S. Senate, and he picked Steve Marshall to replace him as attorney general. (Bentley himself would resign in disgrace a few months later, while Strange would lose his GOP primary to Roy Moore later that year.) King challenged Marshall in the GOP primary the following year, and the incumbent only led King 28.3-27.9 in the first round of the primary. According to the Alabama Political Reporter's Bill Britt, King took 46% of the vote in the 2nd District in this four-way race.
Marshall's wife died three weeks before the runoff, and King paused his campaign for a week out of respect. Marshall defeated King by a wide 62-38.
● AZ-06: On Thursday, the House Ethics Committee released a year-old report from the Office of Congressional Ethics that provides more information about the ongoing investigation into Republican Rep. David Schweikert, pursuant to committee rules that require it to release OCE referrals a year after they are sent to the House.
The report, from August of last year, says that there was "substantial reason" to believe that Schweikert had "authorized compensation to an employee who did not perform duties commensurate with the compensation the employee received." There was likewise "substantial reason" to believe the congressman had "solicited or accepted a loan, gift, or other contribution from a congressional employee" and had "failed to disclose required information in his annual House financial disclosure statements or FEC candidate committee filings." The OCE did, however, dismiss the allegation that Schweikert had "improperly linked official activities to campaign or political support."
Schweikert has repeatedly said that he's seeking re-election, but he could be in for a real fight. His suburban Phoenix seat has been becoming a lot more competitive in recent years: After voting 60-39 for Mitt Romney, Donald Trump carried it just 52-42. Even more alarming for Schweikert, Republican Martha McSally carried the seat by only a modest 51-47 margin in last year's Senate race. And with a sprawling ethics mess now entangling him even further, Schweikert has put his own political future in deeper jeopardy.
● CA-53: Democrat Sara Jacobs, who ran last year for the nearby 49th District, joined the race for this safely blue open seat on Saturday. Jacobs, who served as a Hillary Clinton presidential campaign policy adviser, is the granddaughter of billionaire Irwin Jacobs, who founded the San Diego-based telecommunications giant Qualcomm.
Last year Sara Jacobs spent $2.1 million of her own money, which accounted for most of her fundraising, in the crowded top-two primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa. Jacobs received hefty support from EMILY's List, which spent $2.3 million on her behalf after receiving a $2.5 million donation from her grandfather.
Sara Jacobs ended up falling just short in the top-two primary. Republican Diane Harkey took first place with 26% of the vote, and Democrat Mike Levin edged Jacobs 17.5-15.8 for the second general election spot; Levin handily beat Harkey in November.
Meanwhile, San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez confirmed her interest in running on Thursday, tweeting, "I'm strongly considering it & will have an announcement soon." Gómez identifies as "a queer Latinx," and if she won, she'd be the first LGBTQ Latino to serve in Congress.
Lastly, state Sen. President Pro Tem Toni Atkins said Thursday that she'd seek re-election this year rather than run for Congress.
● KS-01: GOP Rep. Roger Marshall’s decision to run for the Senate (see our KS-Sen item) opens up the 1st Congressional District, a huge western Kansas seat that backed Donald Trump 69-24.
Several local Republicans have spent months talked about running to succeed Marshall in this district, which is uncreatively, but accurately, nicknamed “The Big First,” and they now have their shot. State Rep. Troy Waymaster said in June he was "pretty certain I’ll be running" if this became an open seat race, and fellow state Rep. Ken Rahjes and former Lt. Gov. Tracey Mann also said in July that they were interested.
● MA-03: An unnamed source close to 2018 House candidate Dan Koh says that he'll decide whether to seek a Democratic primary rematch against freshman Rep. Lori Trahan in what Politico characterizes as "the next few months." Last year, Trahan beat Koh in a crowded and expensive open seat race by just 145 votes.
Politico also notes that, because there are too many vacant commission seats on the FEC for the body to take any action, the campaign finance complaints against Trahan are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. Earlier this year two different DC-based groups, including the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center, filed complaints with the FEC against the congresswoman over a $371,000 loan Trahan made to her campaign just before the primary.
As the Boston Globe reported in March, Trahan's financial disclosures from last summer show that she didn't have the resources to contribute anywhere close to that amount of money. Trahan has amended her financial reports multiple times since she was elected to the House in November, but the math still doesn't add up. Trahan's husband, home builder David Trahan, is very wealthy, but his assets appear to be solely under his name, which would prevent him from legally contributing more than $2,700 to his wife's campaign.
● NJ-04: Rep. Chris Smith is the last Republican in New Jersey's 11-member congressional delegation, but he just earned a Democratic opponent who could make him break a sweat—and it's someone he once knew. Human rights activist Stephanie Schmid announced a bid against Smith this week, and in a storyline that's hard to resist, it turns out she interned for the congressman two decades ago, when she was in high school.
Schmid told public radio station WHYY that her time in Smith's office enlightened her about human rights issues—and the man she was working for. "Even though I was only 16," said Smith, "I knew then that we did not share the same values, particularly when it comes to women's rights and equality." Schmid also slammed Smith, who's served in the House since 1981 and is the chamber's fourth-most senior member, for living in Virginia rather than the state he represents.
But while Smith may have "gone Washington," he's been able to get away with it thanks to his district's Republican lean. At 56-41 Trump, New Jersey's 4th, located in the Monmouth County area, is by far the reddest seat in the Garden State. That fact will likely save him again in next year's general election, though establishment creatures like Smith have often found themselves vulnerable to angry conservative outsiders in GOP primaries.
● TX-02: Navy veteran Elisa Cardnell picked up an endorsement on Wednesday from Rep. Marc Veasey, who is the DCCC's regional vice-chair. Cardnell is the only notable Democrat currently challenging freshman GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw in this 52-43 Trump seat, which includes northern Houston and part of west Houston, but she only had $34,000 in the bank at the end of June.
● TX-13, TX-08: The Texas Tribune reported all the way back in November that GOP operatives believed that Republican Rep. Mac Thornberry could retire, and the congressman's team isn't doing anything now to tamp down speculation that he could join the Texodus. Instead, Thornberry's spokesperson told Roll Call that he hadn't spoken to his boss about his 2020 plans. Texas' filing deadline is in December.
Thornberry is the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, but since party term-limits will force him to give up that prominent post in 2021, it might be a good time for him to call it a career. Thornberry's seat, which includes part of the Texas Panhandle, is one of the reddest seats in the nation at 80-17 Trump.
Fellow GOP Rep. Kevin Brady, though, seems intent on sticking around, and his office told Roll Call that he'd seek re-election. Brady's seat, which includes the suburbs and exurbs north of Houston, is also heavily Republican at 74-24 Trump.
● TX-17: Democratic Pflugerville City Councilmember Rudy Metayer says he's interested in running to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Bill Flores. (The article doesn't identify Metayer's party, but he was one of the hosts at a Black Austin Democrats event last year.) This seat, which includes College Station, Waco, and a slice of the Austin suburbs, supported Donald Trump by a wide 56-39 margin, but Republican Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke here last year by a narrower 54-45 spread. This will be a very tough district for the GOP to lose, but it's possible the trends here could give Democrats an opening.
● VA-05: Rappahannock County Supervisor John Lesinski, who is also a Marine veteran and a real estate broker, announced Thursday that he was joining the Democratic primary to take on freshman GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman. Rappahannock County makes up just 1% of this district, so Lesinski won't start with much of a geographic base of support.
● WI-05: Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said Friday that his son, digital strategy firm co-founder Matt Walker, was interested in seeking the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner in the reliably red 5th District. The former governor said, "I think in particular what intrigues him is he feels frustrated that [New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] somehow nationally is reflective of his generation," adding, "He's 25 and he feels there needs to be a counter-voice to that." The younger Walker has not said anything about his plans yet.
Matt Walker served as digital director for North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory's unsuccessful 2016 re-election campaign, but he's never run for office before. However, he wouldn't be the first member of the family to run for office in his 20s. Scott Walker was 22 when he lost a 1990 general election for the state Assembly (his victorious opponent was Gwen Moore, who now represents the 4th Congressional District) and he won a different seat three years later.
However, Sensenbrenner may not be excited to be succeeded by a member of the Walker clan. Scott Walker has become a frequent conservative radio guest host since his 2018 defeat, and earlier this year, he loudly criticized the 13 GOP House members who voted to block Trump's bogus emergency declaration to pay for his border wall. Sensenbrenner was one of that baker's dozen, and while Walker didn't mention the congressman by name, the chair of the 5th District Congressional Caucus soon disinvited the former governor from speaking at its annual meeting.
Sensenbrenner explained that, while he didn't make this decision, he agreed with it. The congressman said, "I didn't want (Walker) to give a speech at a caucus, which is basically my base of support, and run the risk of being criticized for my vote, which was a matter of principle." The two spoke soon afterwards, but that reportedly didn't fix things. An unnamed GOP source told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that the 5th District caucus had invited Walker to speak to them during each of the eight years he was governor, but he'd never showed up. But in 2019, after Walker had lost his re-election campaign, he invited himself.
A number of other Republicans are considering running for the 5th District, which is located in Milwaukee's conservative suburbs. State Rep. Adam Neylon also said he was thinking about campaigning here recently.
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