If you need more assurance (beyond Markos' "don't panic" posts) that professional-type Democrats are feeling bullish about November, there's this: "A Democratic organization plans to pour $15 million into key state legislative races across the country." That's $15 million in state legislative races in Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona.
Those states will be key in upcoming redistricting, and states with Republican legislatures are flippable. The super PAC behind the push, Forward Majority, was launched in 2017 with an eye ahead at 2021 and redistricting—the redrawing of lines for congressional and legislative district maps—and the Democrats' chance to start undoing Republican gerrymandering that has put them in a majority position in governing with a smaller vote count. "Without having a seat at the table next year, we will likely see an unprecedented level of gerrymandering," Forward Majority co-founder Vicky Hausman told CNN. She argued that these four states "represent the most powerful points of leverage in our democracy."
Joe Biden's competitiveness in these states is another factor, which goes along with a political shift many of the suburban areas of these states have experienced, as well as demographic changes in them in the last decade. "Since the lines were drawn after the 2010 census, the gerrymander has really become muted and that is part of what creates the opportunity here," another founder of the group, David Cohen, said. "You've got districts that have just fundamentally changed in the last 10 years. (These districts are) still being represented by real right wing conservative Republicans who don't fit with the districts anymore."
Flipping these legislatures, particularly in Texas, will be a big order, but at the very least strengthening Democratic numbers in all of the states will help. It will also help to have an expanded battleground for Republicans to have to defend, up and down the ballot. That helps across the ticket, all the way up to the Senate races happening in three of the four states as well as in the presidential race. In North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona, Republican senators are on defense this cycle.
This effort will help with that, and with what are chronically underfunded races, especially in a presidential election year. "That is exactly why we exist ... to pick up some of that slack," said Hausman. "The money isn't showing up in the most important places." Forward Majority isn't the only organization thinking this way. Watch this space for more developments on the state legislative front in the next few days!
