You Can Mail It In, but DON’T Phone It in!
I’m seeing a lot of DKos stories on single polls that look good for Biden and Democrats. Trouble is, there are also a lot of polls trending better for Trump and Republicans. There are a lot of pollsters that are new to me coming out in 538 and many of them are more favorable to Trump than the better-known pollsters. Some are clearly biased, like Trafalgar, Spry Strategies, and old right-wing favorite Rasmussen under the name Pulse Opinion Research. I’m ignoring them, along with one pollster that’s too far off to the left, called HIT Strategies. But you can’t ignore them all. I am hoping they are a good worst-case indicator, like I used to consider Rasmussen and Gravis Marketing.
These polls off to the right serve as excellent reminders, that we MUST VOTE to bear out the polls. Moreover, we must check our registrations at our state’s Secretary of State’s sites and sites like vote.org and iamavoter.com and make a plan of how and when we will vote. Do you trust the Postal Service under DeJoy to deliver your ballot? Do you get an absentee ballot from your state and drop it off at the early voting or Election Day polls or at your elections office? Does your state support either of those options? Are you just going to figure it’s no worse than going to the grocery store, don your mask (and gloves?), and go vote early or on Election Day?
I will go to Early Voting in the middle of the day. If it’s crowded, I will come back another day. Election Day has been less crowded in my polling place since Illinois adopted 3 weeks or so of Early Voting (at just one polling place per suburb), so I may wind up voting on Election Day.
And make some calls, write some post-cards, get your Democratic friends and family out to the polls!
15-Second Takeaway
Several states are tightening.
Biden 319 (35 Leaners) | Tossups 77 | Trump 142 (46 Leaners)
270 Threshold: 60 Likely Ds — AZ, MI, MN take your pick.
Hot Contests: TX, GA, IA, NC, NE-1, ME-2
It is SO nice that the hot contests continue to be to the right of the 270 Threshold, meaning we’re fighting on their turf.
Moved to the Right This Week
NC continues to bounce back and forth. It’s in the taupe/brown this week. Tossup
OH Pulse Opinion Research (Rasmussen) has made many Democrats’ month by showing Biden ahead by 4 (Leans D) on Sep 1-2. Trouble is, this is the only poll I’ve seen from them that wasn’t 5 points off to the right, so I don’t count them. Not going to break my universe rule, so I’m considering Morning Consult Aug 29-Sep 7 -5 (big sample, so that’s Likely R), Morning Consult same Aug 21-30 (Likely R), Target Smart +1 (Tossup), Civiqs tied (Tossup). Hoping more reputable pollsters show Rasmussen is indeed biased 5 points to the right as usual, by showing Biden +9 in the coming week. But for now, 2 Likely Rs and 2 Tossups yields Leans R.
FL was Likely D most of the summer. But they’ve sagged to Leans D a second time in recent weeks.
Holding the Line!
Despite many polls showing Trump making inroads and efforts by CNN, CNBC and other broadcasters to hold onto ratings by making the race seem close, the rust belt states that went for Trump last time are holding the line! I saw a report the other day that Biden is focusing on 8 or 9 states. They included the Big 3, PA, MI and WI, along with MN. All 4 are hanging on to Likely D. The campaign is also reportedly targeting 4 swing states in the corners: NV, AZ, FL and NC. AZ’s holding at Likely D. See above comments on NC and FL and see last week’s update on NV.
Moved To The Left This Week
MO Missouri and Iowa used to be sort of lavender in the ‘90s. Bellwethers that leaned a bit toward Republicans. That ended with Obama in ‘08. I’m not going to say these states have a racist tendency, but you can draw your own conclusions. When I lived in St. Louis around 1990, it seemed like each election was more heavily contested than they are now. So I am glad to see a poll from Republican pollster We Ask America that shows Biden trails by only 5 points in the Show-Me State, just over the 4.38% MoE. Read the poll and its Republican language. It reads like it was conducted for Gov. Parson as it dismisses reformer State Auditor Nicole Galloway and tries to scare voters about protests against Trump. Leans R
For a description of my analysis methods, see last week’s update.