The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MI-06: While GOP Rep. Fred Upton downplayed rumors last year that he could retire rather than seek an 18th term in Michigan's competitive 6th District, he acknowledged this week that he still hasn't decided if he'd run again.
Campaign Action
In a Tuesday appearance on the local radio program WHTC Morning News (the relevant portion begins at the 8:02 mark), Upton was asked if he'd seek reelection and responded, "We're evaluating all those criteria, it's a discussion we're having as a family for sure … we've not made the decision quite yet as to what we'll do." Upton went on to say that he would make his choice "in the next couple of weeks for sure."
We may not want to hold the congressman to that timeline, though. Back in late August Upton said he would make up his mind “in the upcoming couple of months,” but we’re still awaiting his answer. However, while Michigan’s April filing deadline is still a while away, Upton would be badly hurting his party if he waited anywhere near that long only to retire.
Upton's southwestern Michigan seat, which includes the Kalamazoo area, moved from 50-49 Romney to 51-43 Trump, but this turf wasn't as friendly to the GOP last cycle. According to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Schuette edged Democrat Gretchen Whitmer 48.4-48.2 as he was badly losing statewide, while Republican John James defeated Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow 50-47 here. Upton himself only won reelection 50-46 in 2018, which was the first time he failed to win a general election by double digits during his entire congressional career.
Democrats are making a serious effort to target this seat regardless of what Upton does. State Rep. Jon Hoadley has been running since the spring, and he's raised a credible amount of money through the end of September. If Hoadley won, he would be Michigan's first gay member of Congress.
4Q Fundraising
● GA-Sen-B: Matt Lieberman (D): $700,000 raised
● IA-Sen: Theresa Greenfield (D): $1.6 million raised, $2.1 million cash-on-hand
● MT-Sen: Cora Neumann (D): $460,000 raised
● MO-Gov: Mike Parson (R-inc): $540,000 raised; Nicole Galloway (D): $445,000 raised
● FL-07: Leo Valentin (R): $180,000 raised, additional $70,000 self-funded; Yukong Zhao (R): $120,000 raised (in six weeks)
● KS-03: Amanda Adkins (R): $200,000 raised
● MA-04: Alan Khazei (D): $430,000 raised, $663,000 cash-on-hand; Becky Walker Grossman (D): $256,000 raised, $313,000 cash-on-hand; Dave Cavell (D): $201,000 raised; Ihssane Leckey (D): $34,000 raised, $51,000 cash-on-hand
● MN-05: Antone Melton-Meaux (D) $200,000 raised (in one month), $180,000 cash-on-hand
● NM-02: Xochitl Torres Small (D-inc): $900,000 raised, $2.25 million cash-on-hand
● NV-03: Susie Lee (D-inc): $600,000 raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand
● NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R): $306,000 raised, $723,000 cash-on-hand
● NY-16: Jamaal Bowman (D): $162,000 raised
● SC-01: Joe Cunningham (D-inc): $900,000 raised, $2.1 million cash-on-hand; Nancy Mace (R): $375,000 raised, $727,000 cash-on-hand
● VA-05: Claire Russo (D): $210,000 raised
Senate
● MI-Sen: Glengariff Group: Gary Peters (D-inc): 44, John James (R): 40
● MS-Sen: Former Miss America Organization president Josh Randle announced Wednesday that he would not challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the GOP primary, a decision that came just days before the Jan. 10 filing deadline. Randle had formed an exploratory committee for a potential bid back in November, but as we like to note, creating an exploratory committee and announcing a bid for office are not the same thing.
Gubernatorial
● WA-Gov: Elway Research is out with a poll of the August top-two primary for Crosscut, and it finds a very unsettled race to take on Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee in the fall.
Inslee takes first place with 46% while conservative activist Tim Eyman, who is currently running as an independent, edges former Bothell Mayor Joshua Freed 7-5 for second place. Two other Republicans, state Sen. Phil Fortunato and Republic police chief Loren Culp, each take 4% of the vote. Freed, who has been self-funding most of his campaign, was the only one of Inslee's foes who had a serious amount of money at the end of November, so he may have the best chance to get his name out.
House
● CA-50: Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday that he would not call a special election to replace soon-to-be-former GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter.
Hunter pleaded guilty in early December to a single charge of conspiracy to convert campaign funds to personal use and soon announced that he would quit Congress sometime "[s]hortly after the Holidays," but he only said this week that his departure would take effect on Jan. 13. By waiting this long before quitting, Hunter made it all but impossible for Newsom to consolidate a special election with the regular March 3 statewide primary.
The top-two primary for the new term is already well underway, though, and former GOP Rep. Darrell Issa is up with the first TV spot of the campaign. Issa, who represented a neighboring seat from 2001 until early last year, tells the audience, "Untamed Trump haters have turned Congress into a circus."
Issa continues by saying he'll "run the circus out of town, because I've done it before," though it's more accurate to say that what he calls the "circus" drove him out of town. The Republican won reelection in 2016 in a surprisingly tight contest as his old seat was swinging hard to the left, and he retired two years later ahead of the blue wave.
The spot continues with a narrator praising Issa for taking on the Obama White House and pledging he'll "stop the impeachment circus and shut down the socialist sideshow." How Issa would stop impeachment, which will conclude well before he could return to Congress, is left as an exercise for the viewer.
P.S. Because there will not be a special election here, this inland San Diego County seat will remain vacant until the new Congress is sworn in early next year. As KUSI notes, this means that, for the first time since 1953, San Diego County will only be represented by Democrats in the House. Back then, though, the county was so small that it was contained in just one congressional district; today, part of San Diego County is included in five different seats.
● HI-02: While Democratic state Rep. Chris Lee was mentioned last year as a possible candidate to succeed Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, he announced this week that he would run for the state Senate instead. The only notable Democratic candidate running for this safely blue open seat is still state Sen. Kai Kahele, who spent months challenging Gabbard before she announced her departure in late October.
● IN-01: Melissa Borom, who serves as government affairs manager for a global aviation services company, announced this week that she would join the May Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Pete Visclosky. Borom worked in Visclosky's Washington office in 2014 and 2015, and she later lost a 2018 primary for a seat on the Lake County Council.
● IN-05: GOP state Sen. Victoria Spartz said Wednesday that she was considering a bid for this open seat in the Indianapolis suburbs and would make up her mind over "the next few weeks." Spartz also added that she was suspending her legislative campaign while she deliberated.
Spartz's 20th Senate District is located entirely in the 5th Congressional District, but she's never had to face the voters before. In mid-2017, local party officials chose Spartz to fill a vacancy in the Senate (Indiana does not hold special elections for the legislature) for a term that doesn't expire until the end of this year.
A number of other Republicans are currently running to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Susan Brooks in this seat, which backed Donald Trump 53-41 but narrowly supported Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in his unsuccessful 2018 re-election bid, and there is no clear frontrunner. The filing deadline is Feb. 7, so the field will be set soon.
● MD-07: EMILY's List, the powerhouse progressive organization that helps elect pro-choice Democratic women, has endorsed former state Democratic Party chairwoman Maya Rockeymoore Cummings in the Feb. 4 special primary to succeed her late husband, Rep. Elijah Cummings. Two other pro-choice women are also running in the primary for this safely blue seat, state Sen. Jill Carter and Del. Terri Hill.
● WI-05: State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald got some good news on Thursday when developer Matt Neumann announced that he would stay out of the GOP primary for this safely red open seat. Fitzgerald has had the field to himself ever since he announced in September, and Neumann was the last notable Republican who had publicly shown any interest in taking him on. Wisconsin's filing deadline isn't until the start of June, though, so it's possible someone will decide to take their chances against Fitzgerald in the primary.
Grab Bag
● Massachusetts: GOP Gov. Charlie Baker signed a bill last month that included a provision moving Massachusetts' statewide primary from Sept. 15 to Sept. 1. The move did not impact the Bay State's filing deadlines.
