As it stands I support Joe Biden for the nomination. Given the alarming divisiveness surrounding Joe, I suspect this will elicit a good deal of negative comments. After all, many people consider Joe a weak candidate, even though he still leads in the polls. In fact, although he has my support I have no problem admitting that his policies are less likely to excite the democratic electorate, certainly not the way Bernie does. Joe’s also notorious for gaffes and “unfortunate” comments. Then again, compared to Trump the bar’s set pretty low to begin with.
I recently attended a Biden Town Hall in NH. Encouraging as it was to see the strong turn out, I do wish I could have been more passionate about the kind of president he might become. Like Bernie Sanders’ supporters. Now these are some passionate people. So yeah, I wish I felt that way about Biden. But I don’t, and I won’t. Yet I’ll still vote for him, and I’ll support him in every way I can, as I will whoever becomes the frontrunner.
So why do I support Biden? Simple, I have one singular interest in this election. Removing Trump. Period, end stop. And the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump will earn my support, all my support. And furthermore, I don’t care who that candidate is as long as he or she has a capital “D” next to their name. Heck, if Mickey Mouse won the primary I’d canvass door-to-door for the little guy, extolling the historic opportunity to elect our first mouse as president. After all, we elected our first jackass as president in 2016, thereby shattering the non-human mammal barrier. So why not a mouse? At least Biden has far more human qualities than Trump.
But in all seriousness, Biden has two things going for him that earn my vote and wholehearted support, at least for the time being. First, he leads the nomination. Poll after poll show him with varying leads. And Biden has a strong base of support with the essential African-American vote, as well as support in the vital swing states.
Now with recent polls showing Senator Warren slipping and Senator Sanders rising, that could certainly change. But as we’re in the election year counting down to the nomination, I’m going to throw my support behind the candidate with the best chance to defeat the biggest single threat to the nation since possibly the Civil War. And as polls also show Biden beating Trump, often by a larger share than other candidates, I’ll continue to support him as long as he has the best chance to take back the presidency.
The second reason why I support Biden is fear. It’s the reason why, in my opinion, he leads in the polls, and very well may win the nomination and then beat Trump.
Trump scares people. He certainly scares me. He also keeps me up nights. I suspect millions of other people are also losing sleep over this moron. And fear is a huge motivator, possibly the biggest. Because when people are afraid, when they’re scared deep down in the pits of their stomachs as so many are about Trump, they’ll yearn for leaders who will help them sleep nights. Alleviating this fear becomes their number one priority, more so than big policy ideas or autocratic personalities.
What I think Joe brings to the election is a feeling of normalcy, an antidote to the environment of hate and fear Trump has created. And I suspect that as long as he’s seen as a comfortable solution to putting Trump and the fear he engenders behind us, then he’ll likely win the nomination and become our next president…which is my number one priority, getting Trump out of the White House.
Of course Biden is clearly not as charismatic as Bernie, or supports policies as progressive, visionary and idealistic as either Senator Sanders or Warren. Nor are Biden supporters as committed or passionate as energized progressives. I suspect even other Biden supporters will acknowledge this. And Biden comes with plenty of political baggage, more than any other candidate due to his long tenure in politics. So much so it’s not difficult to find points of disagreement with him and his policies. I too take issue with some of his past political positions. But in my opinion none of this will matter as long as he’s the candidate who makes people feel less fearful, and who they perceive as the remedy to Trump.
Contrasting Biden is the idealism, the vibrancy and the promise of progressives like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. They offer a future of clear progressive change, change that excites a democratic electorate who sees their futures slipping away. Many of these voters are younger than I am and face deeply uncertain futures. So who can blame them? I certainly don’t.
It’s why, in my opinion, the Bernie Sanders phenomenon continues to have staying power four years after it began. It’s also why Bernie has such a commanding lead in fundraising, much it coming from millions of small money donations. I suspect many of these donations come from voters, young and otherwise, who rightly see their futures under attack.
Yet progressive candidates face their own challenges. For one, they have yet to topple Biden’s lead, and may never. But even if say Bernie pulls into the lead, maybe the biggest impediment to a progressive winning the general election is uncertainty, real or perceived, of the very policies they espouse. And the proposed program with the most uncertainty is Medicare-for-All.
For although many democrats, probably numbering millions, passionately support M4A, there are many millions who don’t. And the reason why they don’t is because it adds uncertainty to the same fear they’re trying to get away from, which too many will be far more important than its benefits, no matter how valid they may be.
The leading fear factor of M4A is its massive price tag. Whether it’s true or not, the media has latched onto a $32 Trillion estimate, a figure that rattles even many democrats, let alone conservatives who are still trying to kill the ACA.
However the ACA didn’t eliminate private health insurance the way a Medicare-for-All plan would. In fact, it was designed to include private health insurers at every step, a feature that was critical to getting the legislation passed and implemented. Yet we saw how much chaos resulted, and how deeply it shook the stability of the country.
Now consider that a M4A program would shift over a trillion dollars in annual private health insurance premiums into Medicare, effectively upending the health insurance industry. But the ACA did nothing of the sort. It didn’t even come close.
Yet the vehemence to the ACA was fierce as Republicans tried to overturn the legislation more than 50 times, have killed some of its most important features, such as the individual mandate, and continue to challenge it in court. On top of that, we currently face a Congress and an electorate that’s more divided than it was a decade ago. Yet even back then, in a less antagonistic political environment, the ACA just barely passed. So to many people, the prospect of such an intense conflict coming on the heels of Trump will hardly feel like the break from the fear and uncertainty they so desperately seek to avoid.
Oh, and just for the record, I have absolutely zero compassion for health insurers. Ideally I’d like to see the entire industry socialized down to its very last premium. If there is one industry that has no business being private, it’s healthcare, specifically health insurance. It’s simply immoral to allow an industry that decides the life or death of millions to be profit-based. So if we can pass M4A, I say bring it on.
But I, like many millions of voters who will decide the election in November, know what lies ahead, and how vehemently such an attempt will be resisted. If people thought the backlash against the ACA was vicious, well, compared to M4A we ain’t seen nothing yet! Even a public option, the policy supported by Biden, would represent a near impossible political “lift.”
So yes, M4A promises significant benefits to average people, and long-term it may offer the best solution to our broken healthcare system and unequal economy, one that as the wealthiest nation in the world we should be better able to enact than any other developed country. But the perception of cost, and the feelings of uncertainty it creates, will become fierce political headwinds to winning back the presidency, and very possibly may guarantee Trump another four years, with disastrous results.
Because at the end of the day people respond not to reality, no matter how valid the evidence, but to what they believe, what they perceive. It’s why I believe progressive candidates are waging an uphill political battle, on M4A and other progressive policies. Although I intellectually support many of their policies, more than anything else I want to see Democrats win elections. Because unless we win elections, nothing else matters.
I once heard it said that Republicans are attracted to “shiny things.” As Democrats we frequently criticize conservatives for being unrealistic ideologues. My fear is that this political holy war we’re having over healthcare and other “shiny things” makes us just as guilty. It’s how we Democrats have managed to become exceptionally proficient at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! And it’s why I’m willing to support any candidate - Biden, Bernie, anyone - who has the best chance of winning the general election in November, even if they’re less than ideal...maybe even far less.
Now as far as the non-Biden candidates are concerned, the only ones with a realistic shot at the nomination are Senators Sanders and Warren. And with the way things have been trending for Warren, it looks like Bernie has the better chance.
My fear is that if nominated his path to the presidency will be tough, maybe insurmountable. If Trump ultimately gets us into a war or the economy dips, then just about any Democrat could win. However, if things stay pretty much the same until November, then beating Trump will be difficult, regardless the candidate.
If Bernie does win the nomination we can expect Republicans to savagely attack him for being a socialist, regardless of reality. The billionaire money will then pile in to support Trump. And the voters who fear Bernie’s unwavering attachment to creating massive government programs more than the prospect of a second Trump term may stay home, or worse yet vote for Trump. It just feels to me that no matter how I look at it, Bernie’s path to the presidency is going to be steeper than Biden’s. And that’s a risk I just can’t accept.
But let’s say Bernie does somehow win the presidency, what then? First, he’ll need to win the Senate to have any chance to enact even one of his policies. Now something that I’ve never seen reported is that the governor of Vermont is a Republican. This means that when Bernie vacates his Senate seat a Republican will likely be appointed, thereby probably putting the Senate out of reach in 2020. There’s also concern that his nomination could put enough Democrats at risk to give the House back to the Republicans.
However if he somehow gets past these hurdles, he still has to face the reality of the filibuster, which is up to Senator Schumer to decide, assuming he becomes the Majority Leader. Then even if Schumer eliminates the filibuster, he’s going to need strong support from the electorate. Because if he tries to force through his policies without strong voter support, he’ll very likely give the Congress and the Presidency back to the Republicans in the next elections.
But it could get even worse. You see Trump can serve two terms as president, and they can be non-consecutive. This means that if Bernie is voted out in four years Trump could come back. And if you think Trump is a monster now, I shudder to think what he’ll become if it gets a second shot.
Taken together, I contend that the greater fear, whether it’s of Trump or Bernie, will be the deciding factor. As it stands currently, I believe that this fear will cause people to rally around Biden, warts and all. I just think they’ll see Biden as offering the most realistic path forward. Not because he offers the most progressive vision, but maybe because he doesn’t.
I think he also understands that people need help now, not when there’s sufficient political will to pass M4A or some other deeply progressive policy. I, for one, want to hear a candidate tell me what can be realistically delivered to the American people now, not try to sell me on some grand ideological vision, no matter how attractive it is to the liberal mindset...mine included.
So as long as Joe remains the candidate to beat, both in the primary and general election, I’ll throw my support behind him. And I’ll throw my heart into it as well, regardless of what kind of leader or policies I might prefer. Because at the end of the day, only one thing matters. Only one. And that’s turning the page on the disastrous imbecile in the White House. If prior to then a day comes when Bernie or Elizabeth becomes the Democratic standard bearer, I’ll gladly and wholeheartedly shift my support to him or her. But until that day arrives, if it arrives, Joe will get my full support. Because given what’s at risk to the future of not only America, but the entire world, I’ll make no apologies for supporting Joe Biden. None.