I’ll admit that I was pretty down yesterday when it was clear Moscow Mitch always had the votes and that the Republicans were always lying about seriously considering even one witness. Only Romney really was serious about it. The other one or two were just making a show for an election year knowing the true vote was never in question.
Today I reminded myself of a few things:
- The GOP got the shit kicked out of them politically in 2018. Why did they get the shit kicked out of them in 2018? Because it was a referendum on Trump. Sure, they are Trump zealots and they are happier and more hate filled than ever, but are there more Trump zealots? Does not look like it to me. (As an extended side note, taking pleasure in hurting others, supporting separating families, supporting sending refugees back to die, and finding the concept of “triggering” liberals funny makes you hate filled.) Is Trump going to do anything between now and November to make more people love him? Doubt it. 2020 is going to be an even bigger referendum on Trump. The Senate letting Trump off without even calling a single witness makes that it that harder for him in 2020.
- People are more aware of the real fake news (like that generated by Russia) and Trumps lies are now continuously exposed. Of course, Russia will meddle, Trump will lie, Facebook is owned by a tool who is happy to encourage Russia’s abuse, and Fox is a state media machine. But are more people falling for it? It doesn’t feel that way to me.
- Comey is not around to screw us over twice and, worst of all, spring another last minute back stab. Clinton probably would have won if Comey had not improperly made it sound like there was new evidence showing Hillary’s corruption days before the election. Will Barr drop an October surprise? Sure, but he doesn’t have credibility outside of the zealot base. William Ray seems unlikely to play that game.
- Trump had 3 million less votes than Hillary and won by scraping by in 3 states he is now upside down in.
- Trump has broken plenty of promises even as he slavishly panders to white nationalists and evangelicals. Racists and people accepting racism is sadly more common that I ever imagined, but the US won’t be less diverse in 2020 or less likely to see Trump for what he is.
- Every candidate running is has fewer built in negatives than Hillary had in 2016. I like Hillary and she had a message pretty much in my lane, but was I truly excited to see another Bush or Clinton in the White House? No because I don’t think trading off the Presidency between two families is a healthy thing. Mostly, though, Clinton was burdened with decades of anti-Clinton propaganda in a way that made it that much harder to pull voters on the margin. We’re all worse for it and it was never fair to Hillary, but that you cannot replicate that in a year for any of the Democrats (even though their are trying to do it to Biden).
Of course Trump can win again. Reagan’s “government is the problem” was a declaration that Republicans were OK to ignore the law because government is bad and they have been actively destroying good government and cheating like mad since then. That did not save the GOP in 2018 and very well won’t stop them from getting hammered 2020.
There is a ton of reasons to have hope even if we lament the damage the Republicans do. We have a lot of good candidates and I can find something positive in all of them. If we work hard, keep our heads up, and keep an open mind with each other, then odds seem like they could be in our favor.
If that is not enough for you, nothing Trump, white nationalists, or evangelicals can do with their politics will stop the the US from becoming more diverse and ultimately more progressive. Moscow Mitch cannot stop it either no matter how smug he feels tonight.