As a social scientist and a health researcher, I fully understand the statistician’s saying that “the plural of anecdote is not data.” And yet, I thought it might be interesting for us to hear from each other about the conservatives in our lives who may have been put off (or not) by what they saw in the debate.
I have coworker who is a registered Republican and describes himself as “leaning right.” He voted for Trump in 2016. We get along well and I genuinely like him. On Wednesday I asked him if he watched the debate. He rolled his eyes and with a look of disgust said that it was a “train wreck” and “an embarrassment to the nation.” I suggested that was largely because Trump kept interrupting and yelling over both Biden and the moderator. He replied that it was “ALL Trump” and went on to describe Trump as a “jerk” and an “asshole” (I know, I know: Why didn’t he notice this in 2016? But I didn’t want to call him out on this because I didn’t want him to be defensive, I just wanted to get his honest impression of what happened). We had a very good conversation about our further impressions and he said that although he might disagree with Biden on a lot of issues, Biden seems “decent” and “a good guy.” He also thought there was no point in further debates if Trump was going to keep acting the same way and stated “I don’t know what that guy’s psychological problem is.” I didn’t actually raise the question of who he would vote for this time around, but my impression was very strong that it was not Trump.
So: what about your experiences? Are there conservatives you know who were appalled/disgusted/outraged (or at least disappointed) by Trump’s performance? My own belief is that with some 95% of the electorate already favoring Biden or Trump in the polls, there are very few people left to influence — and that Trump didn’t win any of them over on Tuesday. But conservatives who voted Trump in 2016 and have now turned against him likely made up their minds about that before the debate as well. Share your anecdotes! It may not be data, but if you want that, Biden is currently leading by 7.6% in the 538 national polling average.