This continues an ongoing series about the 2020 Senate elections (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here). We’ll review the total seats each of the sites we’re tracking forecasts, then the polling averages provided by 270towin (270) and RealClearPolitics (RCP). I’m dropping CNN because they seem to be focused solely on Inside Elections’ updates, already included. Numbers are from 10/09:
538: D 51, R 49 (updated daily; no change). The site offers three different models to choose from; the Deluxe and Classic versions forecast a 51-49 split, while the ‘Lite’ version (based on polling only) is 52-48. Toss-ups (less than a 60% chance for either candidate) now include IA only.
DailyKos : D 48, R 49, toss-ups 3 (no change). This is based off of the DKos competitiveness map for Senate races, not the polling averages. Toss-ups are IA, ME, and NC.
Princeton Election Consortium: D 53, R 47 (updated daily; D +1). AK, ME, and MT are now the Senate “Moneyball” states.
Electoral-vote.com: D 52, R 47, 1 tie (updated daily; D +1). D pickups are AZ, CO, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, and NC; R pickup is AL; the tie is AK.
Rachel Bitecofer: D 50, R 46, toss-ups 4 (as of 9/15; no change). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are AK, GA-Special, GA-Perdue, and IA.
Inside Elections: D 50, R 48, toss-ups 2 (updated 10/1; D +2). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA and MT.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 49, R 49, toss-ups 2 (updated 10/8; no change). Ds pick up AZ, CO and ME; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA and NC.
Cook Political Report: D 48, R 46, toss-ups 6 (updated 10/7; toss-ups +1). D pick up AZ and CO, Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MT, and NC.
RealClearPolitics: D 47, R 46, toss-ups 7 (updated daily; D +1). Ds pick up AZ and CO; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MI, MT, NC, and SC.
ALL the movement over the last 2 weeks has favored Democrats, with seats shifting away from the GOP to either D pickups or tossups. 5 of the 9 models we are now tracking favor the Ds to win 50 seats or more; NONE of them do so for the Rs. Graham’s SC seat is now starting to appear as a toss-up (ironically, on the GOP-favoring RCP site). The GOP continues to play defense everywhere, and they’re falling further behind. Now for the individual races:
MI (Peters/D vs James/R): D +7.4 (270), D +5.1 (RCP). Peter’s lead jumps back up, which is good for a must-hold Democratic seat (the only one on this list).
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +7.2 (270), D +7.2 (RCP). The single recent 1-point poll continues to hold back Kelly’s average; no other recent poll shows less than a 5-pt lead.
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): D +7.0 (270). Hickenlooper maintains a comfortable lead. Apparently RCP cannot find a single poll here that they find acceptable.
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +5.4 (270), D +3.7 (RCP). Gideon’s average lead on 270 holds steady.
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +4.0 (270), D +5.2 (RCP). Cunningham’s lead on 270 shrinks 2 points relative to 2 weeks ago. This may reflect some reaction to his sexting scandal showing up in the most recent polls. This bears close watching; it will be truly disappointing if he blows one of the most promising D opportunities for a pickup.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): D +2.6 (270), D +5.0 (RCP).
AK (Gross/I vs Sullivan/R): Tie (270), R +5.0 (RCP). Both still based on single polls. Somebody please look at this race again.
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): R +0.6 (270), R +0.3 (RCP — September polls). It will be interesting to see if any more forecasting sites move Graham’s seat into the tossup column. The last six polls on the 270 site have this race tied or within 1 point.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): R +1.0 (270), R +3.5 (RCP). The gap narrows slightly, but all is within the margin of error.
KS (Bollier/D vs Marshall/R): R +1.3 (270), R +2.0 (RCP). The most recent poll on 270 gives Marshall a widening advantage.
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): R +4.3 (270), R +2.7 (RCP). Daines’ lead widens by a couple of points.
And the man we’d love to see lose:
KY (McGrath/D vs. McConnell/R): R +13.5 (270); R +12.0 (RCP — the only September poll). Regrettably, I don’t see this happening.
With three and a half weeks to the election, it’s looking like a minimum of 50 D senators with the top-tier pickup opportunities in AZ, CO, ME and NC — unless Cunningham’s support drops more. This leaves us pretty much where we’ve been all summer. However, in races without any polling from the last week or two, we don’t know if there’s any spillover effect from Trump’s disastrous debate performance and COVID-19 diagnosis. Also, there are at least 5 races where polling averages are within 3 pts (AK, GA-Perdue, IA, KS, and SC). A blue wave could conceivably produce as much as a 55-45 Democratic majority.
