I have a new saying: Conservatives can’t handle bad news. Liberals can’t handle good news.
I can’t even with the chorus of people responding to every good poll hyperventilating about “ignore the polls!” and “run like we’re 10, no TWENTY points down!”
Let me be clear: no one is motivated by losing. So please stop!
Contribute now to take back the White House!
I get the intent, this belief that someone will see a good poll and decide that they can take it easy and not vote. There is a fear about complacency if people start believing that we’re winning.
BUT IT’S NOT TRUE.
We didn’t lose 2016 because of complacency. We lost because of voter suppression in Detroit, Philly, and Milwaukee.
You know when we did suppress our own vote? In 2010, when liberals pissed off at President Barack Obama’s efforts to forge bipartisan consensus with Republicans sat the election out—ushering in the very conservative majorities that then passed laws suppressing the vote in, you guessed it, Detroit, Philly, and Milwaukee.
Here’s the reasons you shouldn’t fear good polling:
1) People are motivated by winning, not by losing
So here’s a test—are you motivated by Democrats leading the Maine Senate race by five points, or losing the Kansas Senate race by five points? Which one gets you more excited to donate and volunteer?
If you say “losing by five points,” you are lying. Because we can see how Maine’s Sara Gideon has raised more money and generated far more national excitement than Kansas’ Barbara Bollier. That doesn’t mean that we can’t win the Kansas race! It doesn’t mean we aren’t fighting for it! But which one gets people more excited? Time and time again, it’ll be the race in which we’re leading (or tied).
Conservatives know this, which is why they have a media machine to feed them sweet, sweet reassuring lies, which is why Trump screams about “fake news” and “fake polls,” and why conservative bunk polling outfits like Rasmussen and Gravis exist. They create an alternate reality in which they’re always winning, because even hints of losing demobilize base participation.
In 2010, Democratic chances plummeted the more we realized we were losing. There wasn’t any “oh, we’re losing by 10, I’m so fired up!” Nah, people said “fuck it” and walked away from politics. And we got saddled with a decade of Republican gerrymanders at the federal and state levels, and the voter suppressive legislation that cost us the 2016 election.
Don’t tell people we’re losing, or to pretend that we’re losing, because you’re hurting the cause.
2) No one is staying home no matter what
Take a look at the early vote numbers. Our people are turning out. In Florida. In Georgia. In Texas. In everywhere.
People aren’t voting to elect Joe Biden anymore. They’re voting to give Donald Trump the biggest middle finger possible. This is transcending mere electoral considerations and becoming a cultural moment.
Even California, which has no competitive political offices at stake, has record turnout. Knowing Biden is going to win the state isn’t deterring any golden stater from casting that delicious anti-Trump vote.
No poll showing Biden winning California by 30-40 points is going to stop people from voting.
3) There are more races than president
Once upon a time, liberals were singularly focused on the presidency, oblivious to the thousands of other critical races nationwide—House, Senate, state legislative, judges, school boards, county boards, etc.
That is no longer the case. Jamie Harrison, a Democrat running for Senate in South Carolina, raised presidential-level numbers of $57 million in a single quarter. Meanwhile, House candidates like Rep. Katie Porter are raising the kinds of numbers Senate candidates did not too long ago.
She doesn’t even have an opponent, and is raising crazy sums, and Porter isn’t the only House Democrat raising eye-popping numbers. So are Democrats running in state legislative and lower offices. And let’s not forget the stunning 10-point Wisconsin Supreme Court race victory earlier this year, a critical office Democrats hadn’t even bothered contesting a few weeks prior.
Democrats finally realize that winning isn't just about the presidency, but about every lever of power in government. So the response to a good Biden poll isn't "cool! Our work is done!" Rather, it's "awesome, but what's the latest Texas Senate numbers? Can we flip the state legislature?"
A good Biden poll means that we have a better chance to win tough Senate races in Alaska, Georgia, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, Texas, and elsewhere. It means we can flip state legislatures. It means we can expand our House majority.
There is so much at stake, and so much attention being lavished on those races, that Biden’s status is now a marker for how well we can do overall.
But you know what? If Biden was down 10 points, then forget those tight Senate races in South Carolina and Texas. Forget flipping state legislatures. Forget making gains in the House. None of that would be possible.
So by saying “act like we’re 10 points down,” you’re saying “shit, we’re losing everywhere else too.”
SO PLEASE, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, STOP IT? Please?