Civiqs checked in with North Carolina over the weekend, the first time since May. And just like back then, Democrats are headed toward victory.
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Let’s start with the top of the ticket, where 15 electoral votes are at stake.
PRESIDENT |
10/2020 |
5/2020 |
DONALD TRUMP (R-INC) |
46 |
46 |
JOE BIDEN (D) |
51 |
49 |
Donald Trump hasn’t budged. Weird. I thought this well-focused line of attack would serve him well:
Instead, what was a 3-point Biden lead is now a 5-point Biden lead. And, just as importantly, Biden is over 50%. That means that if accurate, he has the votes he needs to win, no matter what the undecided and “someone else” voters ultimately decide.
Next, let’s look at the Senate race, currently embroiled in a supposed “sexting scandal” that is the most PG-13 thing ever. “When can I see you? I want to kiss you.” The end. In the age of Trump, that should truly rock the race, right? Republicans are certainly trying to make a thing out of it.
Senate |
10/2020 |
5/2020 |
Thom Tillis (R-INC) |
45 |
41 |
Cal Cunningham (D) |
51 |
50 |
What was a 9-point Cunnngham lead is now a 6-point. It’s tightening! Except, not really. Cunningham hasn’t lost support. Tillis has been unpopular with Republicans for a while (he once mildly did something Trump didn’t like), and had just 86% of the vote in May. Unsurprisingly, those Republicans have come home, with 91% now supporting him. There has been some slippage among independents, with Cunningham going from 53-31 to 51-39. But ultimately, Cunningham maintains a comfortable-ish lead and above 50%.
No other polling has shown Cunningham suffering from the “scandal.” It really does seem that Trump has rewritten the rules about what does and does not matter. Once you cheat on your wife with a pornstar while she’s home with a baby, then everything else seems quaint by comparison. And especially a message asking for a freakin’ kiss.
And finally, there’s the governor’s race, one which hasn’t looked competitive all cycle.
Governor |
10/2020 |
5/2020 |
Roy Cooper (D-INC) |
53 |
53 |
Dan Forest (R) |
46 |
44 |
Nothing to see here either. Republicans are maxing out at 45-46% of the vote, leaving them far short of victory.