We are seeing some really good polling today and yesterday for Democratic Senate candidates, as we come down into the home stretch of the election. It is looking good for us winning back the Senate, but of course turnout is the key. With 19 days to go, let’s leave it all on the table.
Let’s get into the latest polls:
1. Sarah Gideon 47% vs. Susan Collins 40%
We haven’t seen any recent polling for this race until today.
Poll Crosstabs
Article: Another poll shows Gideon leading Collins in Senate race
The poll by Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research gave Gideon a 7 percentage-point lead on the incumbent as the race heads into its final weeks.
In the Maine Senate race, 46.9 percent of voters supported Gideon and 39.8 percent supported Collins. The two independents in the race, Lisa Savage and Max Linn, polled at 4.9 percent and 2 percent respectively. Undecided voters made up 6.4 percent.
The issues that are important to voters is what helps Gideon the most, and hurts Collins:
The poll also asked voters about the issues that matter most to them and favorability for elected officials in Maine and nationally. The three most important issues voters identified were the COVID-19 pandemic, health access and insurance coverage and jobs/ employment.
Almost 50 percent listed the pandemic, 43.3 percent cited healthcare and 40.4 percent named jobs and employment.
Collins close alignment with Trump on major issues is hurting her in Maine, as Trump is deeply underwater in Maine with his favorable and unfavorable numbers, at 58% unfavorable and 41.3% favorable. Collins numbers are 54% unfavorable and 43.9% favorable in Maine. Gideon, in contrast, is seen favorably. She has a 51.5% favorable rating vs. a 44.4% unfavorable rating.
More than 58 percent of respondents said they have an unfavorable view of Trump, while only 41.3 percent said they view him favorably.
More than 54 percent said they have an unfavorable view of Collins, while 43.9 percent said they view her favorably.
2. Theresa Greenfield 47% vs. Joni Ernst 43%
Democrat Theresa Greenfield widens her lead to four points over Republican incumbent Joni Ernst
In Iowa, Democrat Theresa Greenfield is going up against incumbent Republican Joni Ernst. We find that Greenfield has a four point lead over Ernst (47 percent Greenfield, 43 percent Ernst). This puts Greenfield running five points ahead of Biden in the state. Compared to our last poll of this race in July, where we found Greenfield with a two point lead and 11 percent of voters not sure, these results suggest undecided voters are making up their minds in Greenfield’s favor. Libertarian Rick Stewart and Independent Suzanne Herzog enjoy three percent support (2 percent Steward, 1 percent Herzog).
Early voting is already underway in Iowa:
Absentee voting in Iowa began on October 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Greenfield holds a significant advantage with 65 percent of the early vote compared to 29 percent for Ernst.
It has to be said that Greenfield has consistently led Joni Ernst in poll after poll, except for one dubious one, which, as the Incumbent in a race, is pure poison for Ernst. Greenfield looks very, very good for this Senate seat pickup, and the race is moving her way in this particular poll as she has added to her previous lead in this polling universe.
3. Mark Kelly 52% vs. Martha McSally 42%
In his Senate race against Martha McSally Mark Kelly is kicking ass and taking names. A pair of high profile polls is putting this race at a crushing double digit margin for Kelly.
Monmouth is showing the race as a 10% blowout for Kelly in their Registered Voter sample and their Likely Voter sample if we have a high turnout election (we will have a high turnout election!)
Mark Kelly has widened his lead over incumbent Martha McSally.
In Arizona’s U.S. Senate contest, Kelly leads McSally by 10 points among registered voters (52%to 42%), which is larger than his margins in prior Monmouth polls from September (50% to 44%) and March (50% to 44%). Among likely voters, his lead is 10 points in a high turnout scenario (52% to 42%) and 6 points in a low turnout scenario (51% to 45%). Last month, Kelly held a 4-point lead in the high turnout model and a 1-point lead in the low turnout model.
In this poll Kelly went from a 6% to a 10% lead in a month.
Kelly gets a net positive rating from registered voters – 44% favorable and 32% unfavorable, which is down slightly from his 48% to 29% rating last month. McSally earns a 33% favorable and 45% unfavorable rating, which is more negative than her divided 40% to 42% rating in September. More Arizona voters feel that McSally has been too supportive of the president (49%) than says he has given Trump the right amount of support (38%).
Having a net unfavorable rating from Arizona voters of -12% is doing McSally in. The reason for this is that she is seen as too beholden to Trump, as half of Arizona voters think she “has been too supportive” of him.
Ipsos also polled the Kelly/McSally race yesterday and found Kelly leading by 11%.
Mark Kelly Leads Marth McSally by 11% 52% to 41%.
With that verification of Kelly’s double digit lead things look extremely good for Kelly to take this Senate seat away from McSally.
4. Cal Cunningham 51% vs. Thom Tillis 45%
Cunningham ahead of Tillis by 6%
Tillis is in trouble because in his state he is deeply unpopular:
You are the incumbent and you are 21% underwater on the favorable/unfavorable question?
Despite the texting issue Cunningham seems poised to win this coveted Senate seat. Other polls have also shown Cunningham with healthy and stable leads recently.
5. Raphael Warnock 52% vs. Kelly Loeffler 44%
The Georgia “Special Election” Senate race is a so-called jungle election. What that means is that multiple candidates can run and, unless one candidate gets an outright majority of the vote (50% +1), there will be a runoff between the two candidates coming in first and second in the race.
The candidate who has emerged as the top Democrat is Rev. Raphael Warnock. The Republican with the best chance right now, according to the polls, is current assigned seat holder Kelly Loeffler, but Doug Collins, another Republican, is right behind Loeffler in the polling. Warnock has surged ahead of the entire pack and looks poised to get the top spot, but he is unlikely to get 50% of the overall vote. So, he would have to get into a runoff with either Loeffler or Collins for the Georgia Senate seat.
With multiple candidates running it is hard to tell who would win once the field is cleared to just the top 2 candidates. Quinnipiac tested those potential races and has come up with
5. a Raphael Warnock 52% vs. Kelly Loeffler 44%
and
5. b Raphael Warnock 54% vs. Doug Collins 42%
Georgia Senate Races
GEORGIA: SENATE SPECIAL ELECTION
Democrat Raphael Warnock leads in the special election for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed in December of 2019.
Likely voters give Warnock 41 percent of the vote, a jump of ten percentage points since late September when he received 31 percent. Republican Doug Collins gets 22 percent, which is unchanged from September, and Loeffler gets 20 percent, compared to 23 percent in September.
If a candidate does not get more than 50 percent of the vote on Election Day, there will be a runoff.
In hypothetical head-to-head matchups between Democrat Warnock and the top two Republican challengers, Warnock leads in both scenarios. Likely voters support Warnock over Loeffler 52 - 44 percent, and support Warnock over Collins 54 - 42 percent.
"Sleepless GOP Senate watchers have Georgia on their minds. And with two Senate seats in play, Democrats are sensing that a potential seismic shift in the balance of power is possible," added Malloy.
6. Jon Ossoff 51% vs. David Perdue 45%
Georgia Senate Races
GEORGIA: OSSOFF VS. PERDUE
Today, Democrat Jon Ossoff leads Republican incumbent Senator David Perdue 51 - 45 percent, while 3 percent are undecided. This compares to a virtual tie in late September when Ossoff had 49 percent and Perdue had 48 percent.
When it comes to favorability ratings, likely voters have a positive view of Ossoff 46 - 36 percent, and a mixed view of Perdue with 43 percent saying favorable and 46 percent saying unfavorable.
Ossoff went from leading by 1% to now leading by 6% in a month in this poll. Ossoff has good favorable numbers while Perdue is underwater on his favorable numbers in Georgia.
On the same day, however, Survey USA came out with a poll that shows Ossoff trailing Perdue by 3%. Ossoff has been polling strong against Purdue, but at this point this race is basically tied. With Democratic backwinds across the US and also in Georgia this is generally not good news for the Incumbent, who generally polls in the mid-40s, but Perdue has some of the tools of incumbency on his side, so this one will probably come down to the wire.
Completing the roundup: