The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CO-Sen: The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC announced Friday that it was canceling its remaining $1.2 million TV reservation in Colorado, a move that's only the latest sign that Republican Sen. Cory Gardner is in dire shape against Democrat John Hickenlooper.
Campaign Action
While SMP is the first group that has stopped spending here altogether, Gardner's allies have also largely directed their resources elsewhere. The Denver Post's Justin Wingerter reported on Friday that the NRSC, the committee that Gardner himself chaired just two years ago, had spent $145,000 during the first half of October, a negligible sum for the final weeks of a Senate race.
The Senate Leadership Fund has spent $2 million from the start of October through Friday, which, while a lot more than the NRSC, still is much less than it has directed elsewhere. SLF is still running spots here and told Politico that it would continue doing so, but it's clear the super PAC doesn't see this race as a major priority in a cycle where it has so many seats to defend in far more conservative states.
The Gardner campaign responded to SMP's announcement by arguing, "It's clear the Democrats also know John Hickenlooper has no chance of winning," but few fell for that truly uninspired spin. Four surveys have been released so far in October, and they've all shown Hickenlooper ahead by at least 9 points. Every recent poll has also shown Joe Biden far ahead in what was a swing state only a few years ago, which makes Gardner's task even tougher.
Senate
● GA-Sen-A, GA-Sen-B: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that a new progressive group called New South Georgia will spend a total of $2.5 million promoting Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.
● GA-Sen-B: Appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler's newest commercial stars the legendary University of Georgia football player Herschel Walker, who has appeared in GOP campaign ads in Georgia for years despite now living in Texas. Walker compares his time on the gridiron with Loeffler's campaign, saying, "When the fake news media attacked Kelly, she went right back at them." He goes on to praise her for being "100% Trump, endorsed by Right to Life, and standing up to radical cancel culture."
● SC-Sen: Democrat Jaime Harrison uses his new commercial to take Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham to task for breaking his pledge not to fill a Supreme Court seat this late in the campaign.
Harrison begins by telling the audience, "My grandfather used to say a man's only as good as his word." The spot then shows a clip of the senator saying, "I want you to use my words against me, you can say 'Lindsey Graham said let's let the next president make that nomination.'" Harrison continues, "After 25 years in Washington, Lindsey's word is worthless."
● TX-Sen: Republicans are betting that the Supreme Court confirmation fight will help them in traditionally red states like Texas, but Democrat MJ Hegar is hoping to turn it into a liability for Republican Sen. John Cornyn. Hegar begins her new commercial by going after the incumbent for showing "no action, no leadership" on pandemic relief. "But when his party bosses called, he jumps to rush through a Supreme Court nominee," Hegar continues, before she pledges that she won't get pushed around in D.C.
Meanwhile, Politico reports that Texans for a Conservative Majority, a pro-Cornyn group that recently began airing ads against Hegar, is spending $3.3 million on its ad campaign.
● Polls:
- AK-Sen: Harstad Research (D): Al Gross (D): 47, Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 46 (Sept.: 46-45 Sullivan)
- AK-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Sullivan (R-inc): 45, Gross (D): 37, John Howe (Alaskan Independence Party): 10 (45-39 Trump)
- SC-Sen: Brilliant Corners (D) for Jaime Harrison: Jaime Harrison (D): 47, Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 45, Bill Bledsoe (C): 3 (Sept.: 45-43 Harrison)ME
- TX-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D): John Cornyn (R-inc): 49, MJ Hegar (D): 46 (Sept.: 44-40 Cornyn)
AK-Sen: Both Harstad and Siena identified Al Gross, an independent who won the Democratic nomination, as a Democrat, which is also how he'll be listed on the ballot.
One key difference between these two polls, though, is that only Siena appears to have included John Howe of the Alaskan Independence Party as an option. The AIP did elect a governor back in 1990 when former Republican Gov. Walter Hickel won as its nominee (Hickel later rejoined the GOP), but it hasn't been a major factor in Last Frontier politics in a while. In 2010, the most recent time the AIP ran a statewide candidate, it took just 2% in the race for governor.
However, while it's unlikely that 10% of Alaska voters are utterly committed to making Juneau the capital of a new nation, it's quite plausible that a large portion of them could opt for a third-party candidate. In 2016, Donald Trump carried the state 51-37, with the remaining 12% going to various other candidates and write-ins.
Harstad's September poll was done for a pro-Gross group called Independence Alaska, and there's no word who the client was for this survey. The memo also says that an unreleased poll from the beginning of October showed a 46-46 tie.
SC-Sen: Brilliant Corners continues to show Constitution Party nominee Bill Bledsoe taking enough support to impact a tight race. Bledsoe remains on the ballot even though he dropped out earlier this month and endorsed Sen. Lindsey Graham, and Jaime Harrison has been running digital ads aiming to boost him at the senator's expense.
Gubernatorial
● VA-Gov: On Thursday, Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman confirmed that he was considering seeking the Republican nomination for next year's open-seat race. The Loudoun Times-Mirror notes that Chapman's flirtations with a gubernatorial bid come at a time when county officials are considering largely replacing his office with a new police department, an idea the sheriff ardently opposes.
Chapman has earned three terms as the top law enforcement officer in Loudoun County even as this large Northern Virginia community has become increasingly blue. Last year, Chapman turned back a Democratic opponent and won re-election 55-45.
House
● AZ-01: The NRCC launched its opening spot against Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran on Friday, a move that makes it the first major GOP outside group to get involved in this contest. The narrator goes after O'Halleran for opposing the 2017 Republican tax bill, which we haven't seen Team Red promote in many commercials this cycle, and ties him to Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
As we recently noted, O'Halleran's allies have been running commercials for over a month against Republican Tiffany Shedd in a race where we've yet to see any polling. This northeastern Arizona seat narrowly backed both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump, though Democrat Kyrsten Sinema took it 51-46 in the 2018 Senate race.
● CO-03: The NRCC began running its first commercial on Friday in the race between Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush and QAnon sympathizer Lauren Boebert, a move that comes shortly after its allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund also took to the airwaves. The spot accuses Mitsch Bush of voting for higher taxes.
● ME-02: Politico's Ally Mutnick reported on Thursday evening that the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has cut $450,000 from its planned ad buy in Maine's 2nd Congressional District for Oct. 14 to Oct. 20 in what she called "a sign of no confidence in GOP nominee Dale Crafts."
Unfortunately for Crafts, the CLF isn't alone in making this determination about his prospects for unseating freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. The DCCC scaled back its ad reservation in late September, and Mutnick adds that the NRCC is "already off air." Every poll that's been released has also shown a clear lead for Golden in this northern Maine seat, which Donald Trump carried 51-41 four years ago.
We've added this new information about the CLF and NRCC spending, or lack thereof, to our Daily Kos Elections 2020 House race triage tracker, which we'll be continuously updating through Election Day.
● Polls:
- AK-AL: Siena College for the New York Times: Don Young (R-inc): 49, Alyse Galvin (D): 41 (45-39 Trump)
- AR-02: Hendrix College for Talk Business: French Hill (R-inc): 46, Joyce Elliott (D): 46 (Sept.: 48-46 Hill)
- FL-15: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Scott Franklin (R): 49, Alan Cohn (D): 41 (51-46 Trump) (Sept.: 49-42 Franklin)
- IL-17: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Congressional Leadership Fund: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): 48, Esther Joy King(R): 42 (45-44 Biden)
- TX-07: GS Strategy Group (R) for Wesley Hunt: Lizzie Fletcher (D-inc): 46, Wesley Hunt (R): 44, Shawn Kelly (L): 3
AK-AL: Siena identified independent Alyse Galvin as a Democrat, which is how she'll be listed on the ballot. The only other poll we've seen here since Labor Day was an early October survey from Alaska Survey Research that gave Galvin a 48-46 edge.
AR-02: Some observers were skeptical one month ago when Hendrix College released its first poll showing a tight race, but that was before major outside groups on both sides started spending serious money in this central Arkansas seat. Democrats have also unveiled a trio of polls since Labor Day finding things close, while Republicans have yet to publish contrary data.
FL-15: The only other poll we've seen here was an early October survey from DCCC Analytics that showed Scott Franklin ahead by a smaller 42-39 spread, while Donald Trump led only 46-45 in a central Florida seat he carried 53-43 four years ago. There has not been any major outside spending here so far.
IL-17: This poll was publicized days after the NRCC released its own numbers from the Tarrance Group that showed DCCC chair Cheri Bustos up by a similar 49-44 spread in a contest that has yet to attract any serious outside money.
And in a true rarity for Republicans this cycle, CLF also included presidential numbers in its memo for this northwestern Illinois seat, which swung from 58-41 Obama to 47.4-46.7 Trump. POS finds Joe Biden ahead only 45-44, which would make for a very small shift to the left from 2016.
TX-07: This is the first survey we've seen from this West Houston seat since March. The NRCC notably canceled its entire TV reservation in the Houston media market in September in an apparent sign of pessimism for Wesley Hunt's prospects in a district that has been moving rapidly to the left in recent years, but its allies at CLF have continued to spend heavily.
Mayoral
● New York City, NY Mayor: On Thursday, Ray McGuire announced that he was stepping down as an executive at the investment giant Citigroup and launching a 2021 bid for the Democratic nomination for mayor. Politico describes McGuire, who would be the city's second-ever Black mayor, as a "business-friendly moderate."
● Portland, OR Mayor: DHM Research has released a new poll of next month's mayoral contest for Oregon Public Broadcasting that finds urban policy consultant Sarah Iannarone edging out Mayor Ted Wheeler 34-33, with 6% of respondents saying that they'll write in Don't Shoot Portland founder Teressa Raiford.
A DHM survey from mid-September for the pro-Wheeler Portland Business Alliance showed Iannarone ahead by a much-larger 41-30, though that earlier poll does not appear to have included an option for Raiford. The Portland Business Alliance and SEIU began running ads in support of Wheeler during the time between these two surveys.
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