The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● State Legislatures: Daily Kos Elections is excited to introduce our latest data set, a cheat-sheet for the most competitive legislative chambers we've been tracking. We've identified 12 chambers, all controlled by Republicans, that are most likely to either flip or have a supermajority broken. In each of these chambers, we detail the most competitive districts, held by both Democrats and Republicans, including the outcomes of past statewide elections for every seat.
The stakes are high for legislative races in 2020, with redistricting on the horizon in 2021. In that regard, the Texas House stands out as a top target for Democrats. Flipping this chamber would not only guarantee Democrats a role in the congressional redistricting process, it would give the party their first taste of statewide power since Team Blue lost the House in 2002.
Campaign Action
The path for Democrats to flip the Texas House is straightforward: Beto O'Rourke carried 76 of 150 seats—a bare majority—in his 2018 run for the U.S. Senate. Nine of those are GOP-held, which is the number Democrats need to take control of the chamber.
There are also opportunities for Team Blue in districts O'Rourke narrowly lost, such as the 92nd and 96th Districts in the Dallas suburbs, where rapid diversification and backlash to Trump led Democrats to narrow misses in 2018, by three and four points, respectively. Democrats will also need to hold on to the 12 seats they flipped in 2018, although all of those were carried by O'Rourke.
Elsewhere, Democrats could gain trifectas (control of the governorship and both legislative chambers) in North Carolina, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. In Kansas, meanwhile, the potential exists for Democrats to break GOP supermajorities in both chambers, giving strength to Gov. Laura Kelly in the form of veto power. Other pickup opportunities for Democrats include the Arizona Senate and House, the Iowa House, and the Michigan House. Republicans, by contrast, are playing defense almost everywhere.
You can check out all the data we've wrangled on all of these chambers here.
Senate
● GA-Sen-B: Republican Rep. Doug Collins is airing a new commercial for the all-party primary that rips GOP incumbent Kelly Loeffler for allegedly having once had a portrait hanging in her Atlanta mansion that depicted "history's most brutal mass murderer," and no, the narrator is not talking about Attila the Hun. Instead, the spot declares that Loeffler displayed a painting of the late Chinese Communist dictator Mao Zedong, with the narrator arguing that she "lied about hanging the $60,000 portrait of Mao in her Buckhead estate."
The announcer then goes on to tie Loeffler to modern China by saying, "Her love of their money explains the Chinese flag Loeffler hung on her New York Stock Exchange." (Loeffler's husband, Jeff Sprecher, is the CEO of the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange.) The spot concludes by arguing, "And Loeffler's refusal to cut ties with China-controlled companies that make her millions. Because Kelly Loeffler is a fake conservative who looks out for herself."
Republicans have spent the last several months launching xenophobic anti-China attacks against Democrats in races across the nation, but Mao didn't make an appearance in the intra-party brawl between Loeffler and Collins until their debate on Monday. Collins raised the issue by asking her if she still had "the $56,000 portrait of Chairman Mao hanging in your foyer, as was seen on social media." Loeffler responded by accusing her opponent of launching another sexist attack against her, but she did not mention the painting.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution explains that a Collins aide said after the event that the congressman was referring to a 2018 Facebook picture that appeared to show a copy of an Andy Warhol painting of Mao hanging in Loeffler's home in Atlanta's affluent Buckhead neighborhood. The photo was deleted from Facebook shortly after the debate, though it appears in Collins' ad.
Loeffler's spokesperson first said in response that the picture Collins was using was "photoshopped," and that neither Loeffler nor Sprecher owned a Mao portrait; however, he added that it wasn't clear if the painting had ever hung in their mansion. Collins, for his part, insisted that the picture was very real.
Loeffler, meanwhile, is running a spot on Fox News that once again links Collins to someone that Georgia Republican voters may despise more than Mao: 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams. The entire ad shows a photo of Collins embracing Abrams as the narrator declares that he partnered with the Democrat when they both served in the state legislature "to embrace the largest tax-increase in Georgia history."
● TX-Sen: Republican Sen. John Cornyn's new commercial goes after Democrat MJ Hegar for … swearing. After the spot plays several clips of Hegar appearing to cuss (her words are partially censored), the narrator insists that Cornyn has "found a way to treat people with respect." We have yet to find any evidence of Cornyn showing this sort of shock! shock! over Donald Trump's potty mouth.
Hegar responded to the spot by tweeting, "Here's another ad for you, John! You're a sell-out, and Texans see through your bullshit."
● Polls: Someday, you'll miss our massive collections of Senate polls. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life until 2022.
- AZ-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters: Mark Kelly (D): 51, Martha McSally (R-inc): 43 (50-46 Biden) (mid-Oct.: 51-41 Kelly)
- AZ-Sen: Morning Consult: Kelly (D): 48, McSally (R-inc): 44 (48-47 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 49-41 Kelly)
- CO-Sen: Morning Consult: John Hickenlooper (D): 50, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 42 (55-39 Biden) (mid-Oct.: 50-40 Hickenlooper)
- GA-Sen-A: Garin-Hart-Yang (D) for Jon Ossoff: Jon Ossoff (D): 48, David Perdue (R-inc): 43, Shane Hazel (L): 6 (51-44 Biden) (Aug.: 48-46 Ossoff)
- GA-Sen-A: Morning Consult: Perdue (R-inc): 46, Ossoff (D): 44 (48-48 presidential tie) (mid-Oct.: 46-42 Perdue)
- KS-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Roger Marshall (R): 46, Barbara Bollier (D): 42, Jason Buckley (L): 4 (48-41 Trump)
- KY-Sen: Cygnal (R) for Ready Education Network: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50, Amy McGrath (D): 40, Brad Barron (L): 5
- MI-Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R) for Fox News: Gary Peters (D-inc): 49, John James (R): 41 (52-40 Biden) (July: 48-38 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Data for Progress (D) for Crooked Media and Indivisible: Peters (D-inc): 48, James (R): 43 (50-45 Biden) (Sept.: 47-42 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Morning Consult: Peters (D-inc): 48, James (R): 42 (52-44 Biden) (mid-Oct.: 49-40 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for American Bridge: Peters (D-inc): 52, James (R): 43 (50-43 Biden) (early Oct.: 48-41 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Trafalgar Group (R) for Restoration PAC: John James (R): 50, Gary Peters (D-inc): 48 (47-45 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 48-47 James)
- MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Tina Smith (D-inc): 43, Jason Lewis (R): 42 (48-42 Biden) (early Oct.: 44-37 Smith)
- MT-Sen: Strategies 360 (D) for NBC Montana: Steve Daines (R-inc): 48, Steve Bullock (D): 47 (51-43 Trump)
- NC-Sen: Morning Consult: Cal Cunningham (D): 48, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 42 (50-47 Biden) (mid-Oct.: 47-41 Cunningham)
- NE-Sen: Cygnal (R) for Ready Education Network: Ben Sasse (R-inc): 48, Chris Janicek (D): 18, Gene Siadek (L): 6
- OK-Sen: SoonerPoll for News9/Newson6: Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 56, Abby Broyles (D): 37 (59-37 Trump) (Sept.: 57-33 Inhofe)
- SC-Sen: Morning Consult: Jaime Harrison (D): 47, Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 45 (51-45 Trump) (mid-Oct.: 48-42 Graham)
- TX-Sen: Morning Consult: John Cornyn (R-inc): 46, MJ Hegar (D): 41 (48-47 Biden) (mid-Oct.: 47-38 Cornyn)
- VA-Sen: SSRS for George Mason University/Washington Post: Mark Warner (D-inc): 57, Daniel Gade (R): 39 (52-41 Biden)
KS-Sen: Siena's poll comes a day after two dueling internals showed very different snapshots of the race. Roger Marshall's allies at Keep Kansas Great released a co/Efficient poll showing him up 51-39, while Barbara Bollier's supporters at Protect Our Care publicized a Public Policy Polling survey that had a 43-43 deadlock.
Of this trio, Siena actually finds the closest presidential contest of the bunch at 48-41 Trump, which would be a huge plunge from his 56-36 victory here four years ago. By contrast, co/efficient and PPP had him ahead 56-39 and 54-42, respectively.
MI-Sen: The Trafalgar Group has been one of Trump's friendliest pollsters this cycle, and it's also been quite favorable to John James: While every other firm has found Sen. Gary Peters ahead in every single survey that's been released since March (even if only narrowly), three previous Trafalgar polls have found James in the lead or tied.
MN-Sen: This poll showed a surprisingly tight race between Sen. Tina Smith and Jason Lewis in a contest where there's been very little outside spending. At this point, if either party thinks things are anywhere as tight as SurveyUSA finds, they'll either need to act very quickly or hold their peace.
We've seen two other polls in the time between the two SurveyUSA numbers, though they don't paint a constant picture of the state of the race. The Democratic firm Change Research's survey for the MinnPost had Smith up 48-44 in mid-October, while a Civiqs poll for Daily Kos that was completed Tuesday gave her a wide 54-43 edge.
MT-Sen: Montana doesn't get as much polling love as most other Senate battlegrounds, but this survey from Strategies 360 matches what other firms have been seeing. Prior to the inclusion of this survey the Daily Kos Elections polling average showed Sen. Steve Daines ahead 48-47, which is exactly what Strategies 360 finds.
Gubernatorial
● MT-Gov: The Democratic firm Strategies 360's new poll for NBC Montana gives Republican Greg Gianforte a 48-41 lead over Democrat Mike Cooney, while respondents favor Donald Trump 51-43. Prior to the inclusion of this survey the Daily Kos Elections polling average found Gianforte ahead by a wider 50-40 margin, though only three other surveys have been released since Labor Day.
House
● TX-03: Democrat Lulu Seikaly is running the first commercial we know of that makes use of Donald's Trump's bleach injection remarks from earlier this year, and it's quite well done. The spot, which is part of a coordinated ad buy with the DCCC, begins with a clip of Trump saying, "Then I see the disinfectant ... by injection, inside …" as a guy doing his laundry looks at his large container of detergent and incredulously asks, "This is the cure for COVID?"
A narrator jumps in and says of the district's Republican congressman, "When Van Taylor and Donald Trump ignore the experts, you get frightening results. They make decisions based on partisan politics—not facts." He continues, "Taylor voted with Trump to give corporations an unaccountable slush fund, but opposed helping small businesses and health workers."
In a nice touch, the camera reveals that the products in the laundry room have labels showing the two Republicans together, including the aforementioned bleach container that declares, "VAN TAYLOR AND TRUMP POISON DO NOT DRINK."
● TX-07, TX-22: The Texas Tribune reported on Wednesday evening that House Majority PAC was redirecting its ad spending from Texas' 7th Congressional District, where the group feels good about freshman Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher's re-election prospects, to the neighboring 22nd District in Houston's southern suburbs. The latter seat is held by retiring Republican Rep. Pete Olson, and it's one of Team Blue's top pickup opportunities in the nation.
This is the second time this fall that a major outside group has changed its advertising plan in the Houston media market, which covers both constituencies, though the circumstances are a bit different. A little more than a month ago the NRCC canceled all of its ad reservations in Houston in what appeared to be a big sign of pessimism about its chances in both the 7th and 22nd Districts.
Its allies at the Congressional Leadership Fund, though, have continued to treat each race as a major priority in the ensuing month. CLF has spent $2.6 million through Sunday in the 7th, where Republican Wesley Hunt is trying to unseat Fletcher, compared to a smaller $741,000 from HMP. The 22nd has attracted considerably more outside spending: CLF has deployed $3.6 million to support Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, while HMP and the DCCC have spent a total of $5 million to aid Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni.
We've added this new information about the HMP's move to our Daily Kos Elections 2020 House race triage tracker, which we'll be continuously updating through Election Day.
● Polls:
- FL-16: Data Targeting (R) for Vern Buchanan: Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 53, Margaret Good (D): 38 (mid-Oct.: 52-37 Buchanan)
- IA-01: Monmouth University: Abby Finkenauer (D-inc): 52, Ashley Hinson (R): 44 (Aug.: 51-41 Finkenauer)
- IA-02: Monmouth University: Rita Hart (D): 49, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R): 43 (Aug.: 47-44 Miller-Meeks)
- IA-03: Monmouth University: Cindy Axne (D-inc): 52, David Young (R): 43 (Aug.: 48-42 Axne)
- IA-04: Monmouth University: Randy Feenstra (R): 48, J.D. Scholten (D): 42 (Aug.: 54-34 Feenstra)
- MT-AL: Strategies 360 (D) for NBC Montana: Kathleen Williams (D): 46, Matt Rosendale (R): 46 (51-43 Trump)
- NC-11: EMC Research (D) for Moe Davis: Moe Davis (D): 45, Madison Cawthorn (R): 42 (49-47 Biden) (Sept.: 46-42 Davis)
- NY-24: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for John Katko: John Katko (R-inc): 47, Dana Balter (D): 39, Steve Williams (Working Families): 3 (Aug.: 51-40 Katko)
- OK-05: SoonerPoll for News9/News On 6: Kendra Horn (D-inc): 49, Stephanie Bice (R): 47 (47-47 presidential tie) (Sept.: 45-44 Bice)
IA-01: We’ve only seen one other survey in the time between the two Monmouth polls. In late September, the Congressional Leadership Fund publicized a Basswood Research internal that found a 45-45 deadlock in this northeast Iowa seat.
IA-02: No one has released any other polls of this contest since Monmouth’s last survey, which is a bit surprising because this open southeast Iowa seat has attracted more outside spending from the big four House groups through Sunday than any other district in the country.
IA-03: We also haven’t seen any other polls of this contest for this Des Moines area district since Monmouth’s August numbers. One thing we do know, though, is that there has been considerably less spending from the big four than in the aforementioned Iowa seats: A total of $2.9 million had been spent here as of Sunday compared to $5.8 million in the 1st District and $10.7 million in the 2nd.
IA-04: The biggest surprise in this batch of House polls was Monmouth finding a fairly close race in a western Iowa district that almost everyone stopped viewing as competitive after Randy Feenstra beat white nationalist Rep. Steve King in the June GOP primary.
However, unlike the other Iowa districts, we do have some recent internals from other firms, though they very much disagree on the state of the race. Earlier this week, Feenstra released a poll from American Viewpoint that found him ahead 54-31, while J.D. Scholten quickly responded with a Change Research survey that had Feenstra up only 50-45.
NC-11: We haven’t seen any other polls of this western North Carolina seat since Moe Davis publicized his last internal, but the Congressional Leadership Fund has spent over $800,000 to hold this district. So far, though, House Majority PAC and the DCCC have not spent in the contest to succeed former Republican Rep. Mark Meadows, who is now Trump’s chief of staff.
Davis’ internal did not include presidential numbers, but the campaign told Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin that the poll found Joe Biden up 49-47. Trump won 57-40 here four years ago, so this would be a massive shift to the left.
NY-24: This is the first GOP internal we’ve seen since Rep. John Katko’s last poll more than two months ago, but we’ve seen closer numbers from other firms over the last few weeks. A late September Siena survey had Dana Balter up 42-40, while a mid-October Public Policy Polling internal for her allies at House Majority PAC showed her up 45-43.
OK-05: We’ve seen only one survey that was conducted in the time since Sooner Poll last went into the field. The GOP firm Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass and Associates, which said it had no client, found a 49-45 lead for Stephanie Bice in late September, while it showed Donald Trump ahead 49-43. Trump carried this district in the Oklahoma City area 53-40 four years ago.
Mayoral
● New York City, NY Mayor: City Councilman Carlos Menchaca announced Thursday that he was joining next year's already-crowded Democratic contest to succeed termed-out Mayor Bill de Blasio. Menchaca argued that he was "the only progressive, tested elected official" in June's instant-runoff primary.
Menchaca, who would be the city's first Latino mayor as well as its first gay leader, was elected to a Brooklyn seat in 2013 by unseating an incumbent in the primary. The councilman, who was the first elected official to back Cynthia Nixon's unsuccessful 2018 primary bid against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, was once a de Blasio ally, but he's spent most of his political career criticizing the mayor from the left.
In June, Menchaca even introduced a no-confidence resolution that called for Cuomo to consider ways to remove de Blasio from office "for failing to protect the safety and promote the general welfare of the public," though the City Council never voted on it.
Ballot Measures
● CA Ballot: The Public Policy Institute of California's newest statewide poll finds a small 49-45 lead for Prop. 15, the so-called "split roll" initiative that would scale back a significant part of a property tax freeze passed by anti-tax crusaders in 1978; the sample also favors Joe Biden 58-32. While the measure is ahead, this is a notable drop from the 51-40 edge that the PPIC showed in mid-September.
We've seen two other polls in the intervening time. A UC Berkeley survey that was also done in mid-September showed Prop. 15 up 49-34, while a SurveyUSA poll from late last month had it ahead 49-21.
Grab Bag
● Redistricting: Next month's elections are the last that will take place before states are required to redraw their congressional and state legislative districts to reflect population changes in the 2020 census. That makes them critical in the fight against gerrymandering. In a new article, Daily Kos Elections' Stephen Wolf looks at what are the key elections for governors, state legislatures, state supreme courts, and ballot measures in the states that could change who's in charge of the redistricting process for the coming decade. Be sure to bookmark the spreadsheet version of this info since we'll update it as results come in.
As things stand today, Republicans would get to draw three to four times as many congressional districts as Democrats if nothing changes in 2020, and the picture is similar for state legislative maps. But Democrats are well-positioned to flip a number of key races that would break GOP's control over redistricting in important swing states. In just four states home to one-fifth of the House's seats, control over Ohio's Supreme Court and the state houses in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas could decide whether the GOP has unfettered power to gerrymander there or whether Democrats will have a seat at the table.
Ad Roundup
