There’s just one week to go before Election Day, and with the political climate looking as grim as it ever has for Republicans in numerous contests, Daily Kos Elections is changing our race ratings in 18 different House seats. A total of 15 contests move in the direction of the Democrats while two move to the right; our final rating is in an all-Democratic contest in California. You can find all of our Senate, gubernatorial, and House ratings at each link.
• AK-AL (Likely R to Lean R): Republican Rep. Don Young defeated Alyse Galvin, an independent who earned the Democratic nomination, 53-47 in 2018, making it in the incumbent's closest election in a decade, and their rematch for Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District is looking even more competitive.
Major outside groups from both sides have spent a total of $2.3 million after almost completely bypassing the state two years ago, but recent polls disagree which candidate has the edge. It would still be an upset if Young lost the seat he’s held for almost half a century, but the well-funded Galvin is putting up a very tough fight.
• CA-04 (Safe R to Likely R): Republican Rep. Tom McClintock won re-election by a solid 54-46 last cycle against a credible Democratic opponent in California’s 4th Congressional District, but he faces another well-funded foe in businesswoman Brynne Kennedy.
McClintock has yet to respond to either of Kennedy’s polls, including an October Lake Partners internal that found her down just 49-45; that survey also showed Trump ahead only 47-46 in a constituency that he took 54-39. This sprawling district, which includes the northern Sacramento suburbs, is very tough turf for Team Blue, but Kennedy’s resources could give her an outside shot in a strong Democratic year.
• CA-10 (Likely D to Safe D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Harder won California’s 10th District in a very expensive 2018 race, but Republicans have failed to put this Modesto area seat in play this time. In May, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the state party retracted their endorsements of Republican Ted Howze after numerous bigoted social media posts of his surfaced. Howze has done nothing over the following five months to demonstrate that he can give Harder a real challenge, and national Republicans have continued to ignore him.
• CA-45 (Likely D to Safe D): Republicans began the cycle planning to target freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in California’s 45th District, but this is another contest that’s disappeared from the battleground list. Porter's fundraising has reached levels that would be credible in a Senate race, let alone a House campaign, while her GOP foe, Mission Viejo Council Member Greg Raths, has struggled to attract attention. This Irvine-based seat has also swung hard to the left in over the last few years, and both parties have bypassed it as they focus on other Southern California races.
• CA-53 (No Favorite to Lean Jacobs): Former State Department official Sara Jacobs goes into the final days of the all-Democratic contest for California’s 53rd District with the advantage over San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez. Every poll we’ve seen has shown Jacobs ahead, including a recent offering from SurveyUSA that showed her up 40-27. The wealthy Jacobs also has considerably more resources at her disposal than Gómez. Same-party races are unpredictable and Gómez could yet pull off a surprise, but Jacobs is the one to beat here.
• GA-07 (Tossup to Lean D): Georgia’s open 7th Congressional District is one of many historically red suburban areas that has moved sharply to the left during the Trump era, and Republicans are the underdogs in this year’s contest to hold retiring Rep. Rob Woodall's seat.
Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux came within a hair of beating Woodall last cycle, and Team Red’s current nominee, emergency room physician Rich McCormick, faces a big financial disadvantage against her this time. Both parties are spending heavily in a race where no one has released polls in months, so a McCormick victory is still a real possibility, but he’d need to overcome many obstacles arrayed against him.
• IL-17 (Safe D to Likely D): Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos has always decisively won re-election in Illinois’ 17th District even after it swung from 58-41 Obama to 47.4-46.7 Trump, but Republicans are acting like the DCCC chair is vulnerable. Polls released by the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund in October have found Bustos 5 to 6 points ahead of real estate attorney Esther Joy King, and CLF put its money where its mouth is with an ad buy in the final days of the race. It would be a huge shocker of Bustos lost, but this contest is worth keeping an eye on.
• KS-03 (Likely D to Safe D): Rep. Sharice Davids is yet another freshman Democrat who is secure just two years after winning a competitive race. Kansas’ 3rd District, like so many other well-educated suburban areas, has harshly rejected the GOP over the last few years, and the major outside groups that spent heavily here in 2018 have ignored the race between Davids and former state Republican Party chair Amanda Adkins.
• NH-01 (Lean D to Likely D): New Hampshire’s 1st District is swingy turf that narrowly backed both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, but it’s not looking like it will be a major target this fall. The big outside players have not spent anything in the contest between freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Trump aide Matt Mowers, and every poll that’s been released has shown the incumbent well ahead. The Granite State is volatile enough that this district can probably never be regarded as truly safe for one party or the other, but a Pappas defeat would be a big surprise.
• NJ-03 (Tossup to Lean D): Incumbent Andy Kim began the year looking like one of the more vulnerable members of the freshman Democratic class, but he has the advantage going into the final days of the race for New Jersey’s 3rd District. Kim has massively outspent wealthy businessman David Richter, who has received only about $100,000 in outside support from national Republicans—a pittance in a South Jersey seat where it costs a massive amount to effectively advertise on TV.
Kim’s allies have spent $2.6 million to shore him up, so they don’t think he’s a lock in this 51-45 Trump district, but Richter is the one who needs something unexpected to happen in order to prevail.
• NJ-07 (Tossup to Lean D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski faces a well-funded challenge in New Jersey’s 7th District from state Senate Republican Leader Tom Kean Jr., but the incumbent is the favorite in the homestretch of the campaign. This North Jersey seat is another suburban district that’s shifted to the left in the Trump era, and Kean will need to win support from Biden voters to win. Both parties have spent a total of $7.5 million, though, so no one is acting like Kean can’t pull off an upset.
• NV-03 (Likely D to Lean D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Susie Lee is still the frontrunner to keep Nevada’s 3rd District, a seat in Las Vegas’ southern suburbs that narrowly supported both Obama and Trump, against former professional wrestler Dan Rodimer. However, both parties have spent a total of $5.8 million, which suggests Lee hasn't put Rodimer away. Nevada is also one of the few Clinton states that Trump is making a serious effort to flip, but even if he falls short statewide, it’s possible he could do well enough in this district to boost Rodimer.
• NY-19 (Likely D to Safe D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado flipped New York’s 19th Congressional District after a very expensive 2018 contest, but even though Trump won this seat 51-44, it's become almost invisible to Republicans. The party’s nominee, Army veteran Kyle Van De Water, raised a grand total of $100,000 through mid-October, which is a fraction of a fraction of what he’d need to run a credible campaign in this Hudson Valley district. Both parties agree this race is locked in, as there's been no serious outside spending here.
• OH-12 (Safe R to Likely R): Major outside groups haven’t spent anything on Ohio’s 12th District, but there are reasons to keep an eye on the battle between Republican Rep. Troy Balderson and his Democratic opponent, businesswoman Alaina Shearer. While Trump carried this suburban Columbus seat by a wide 53-42 margin, Balderson had to win two competitive contests in 2018 to keep it in GOP hands. Shearer also released a Public Policy Polling survey late in the campaign that showed Balderson and Trump up only 48-44 and 48-47, respectively, and we have yet to see a response from Team Red.
• PA-01 (Lean R to Tossup): Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick ran well ahead of the top of the GOP ticket during his first two contests, but his crossover appeal faces its greatest test this year in his race against Democrat Christina Finello. Pennsylvania’s 1st District, which includes all of Bucks County north of Philadelphia, is the type of suburban seat that Joe Biden is poised to do very well in. Finello also has raised a credible amount of money after a late start, and national Democrats have poured in a serious amount to aid her in the final stretch of the election.
• PA-08 (Lean D to Likely D): The DCCC cut back its ad reservations for Pennsylvania's 8th District in late September in an optimistic sign for Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright’s prospects, and that confidence appears to have been well-placed.
National Republicans have yet to spend anything to support former Trump administration official Jim Bognet, whose own October poll showed him trailing the incumbent 48-43; in another dire sign for Team Red, that same survey also found Biden leading 48-46 in a Scranton-area seat that Trump won 53-44. House Majority PAC is still airing ads for Cartwright so the contest isn’t over yet, but he looks like he’s in a good place.
• TX-06 (Safe R to Likely R): Freshman Republican Rep. Ron Wright won Texas’ 6th District 53-45 two years ago, but he could have problems if Donald Trump’s numbers crash even in more conservative suburban seats like this one. Attorney Stephen Daniel is betting that they will: The Democratic nominee released an October poll from GBAO that gave Wright only a 45-41 edge as Biden led 46-45 in a district Trump took 54-42.
There has been no serious outside spending in this seat, which contains Arlington and rural areas south of Dallas, so Daniel remains very much the underdog, but this is another race where a surprise is possible in a wave year.
• TX-31 (Safe R to Likely R): Longtime Republican Rep. John Carter only held onto Texas’ 31st District 51-48 last cycle, and this seat in Austin’s northern suburbs is another place where Donald Trump could be a big drag on the GOP ticket.
A September survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Carter leading businesswoman Donna Imam only 43-37 as Trump held just a 48-47 edge in a seat he carried 54-41 four years ago. Those numbers didn’t convince any major outside groups to get involved here, though, but a good showing at the top of the ticket could give Iman the chance to pull off a major upset.
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