Holy shit, this new Civiqs poll of Georgia…
Donate now to win back the Senate!
This is Civiqs’ third and final poll of Georgia this election cycle, and was conducted over the weekend, 10/23-26.
PRESIDENT |
10/26 |
9/29/20 |
5/19 |
JOE BIDEN (D) |
51 |
50 |
48 |
DONALD TRUMP (R-INC) |
46 |
47 |
47 |
Joe Biden’s numbers have been a slow and steady progressive march from +1, to +3, to +5 in this poll. And as good as that lead is, it’s not even Biden’s best result in a recent poll. Garin-Hart, a Democratic campaign pollster, had it 51-44 Biden in their most recent poll, as did Quinnipiac. That said, lots of pollsters also see the more typical tied race. So no one is resting easy, in this race that was on few people’s “battleground” list early in the cycle. (It was on ours!)
Of respondents who have already voted, Biden is winning 61-36. Those who have yet to vote, 59-39. And therein lies the GOP’s big danger—Democrats have banked the bulk of their votes. Those who haven't voted will have a much easier time of it on Election Day, with Republicans unable to suppress the Democratic vote by forcing long lines in Democratic precincts. Meanwhile, Trump’s successful efforts to suppress his own early vote means that all manners of factors can depress their Election Day vote, including rampaging COVID-19 in rural blood-red counties.
The best part about these numbers? The better Biden does, the more our candidates are boosted in the two hyper-critical Senate races.
SENATE-A |
10/26 |
9/29 |
5/19 |
JON OSSOFF (D) |
51 |
48 |
47 |
DAVID PERDUE (R-INC) |
45 |
46 |
45 |
SHANE HAZEL (L) |
2 |
3 |
n/a |
Georgia has a Jim Crow-era law requiring candidates to get 50% of the vote, otherwise there is a January runoff. This is the first Civiqs poll showing Ossoff hitting that magical mark. In fact, this is the first poll period to show Ossoff doing that well.
Purdue has been stuck at that 45-ish mark since Civiqs started polling. His prognosis is poor even if he manages to survive to a January runoff. Democrats aren’t staying home this cycle, especially when such things as Supreme Court expansion and DC statehood are at stake.
Georgia is also featuring a special Senate election. This is a jungle primary—all candidates run on the same ballot line, with the top two advancing to a January runoff … unless someone hits 50%. And did I mention that an outright winner would be seated immediately, slashing the GOP majority and its ability to create trouble in the lame duck session?
Unfortunately, the presence of several Democrats make an outright 50% victory here incredibly difficult, even as voters rally around superstar Raphael Warnock as the consensus choice.
SENATE-B (SPECIAL ELECTION) |
10/26 |
9/29/20 |
5/19 |
RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D) |
48 |
38 |
18 |
DOUG COLLINS (R) |
23 |
25 |
34 |
KELLY LOEFFLER (R-INC) |
22 |
21 |
12 |
MATT LIEBERMAN (D) |
2 |
5 |
14 |
ED TARVER (D) |
1 |
2 |
6 |
UNSURE |
2 |
7 |
12 |
SOMEONE ELSE |
2 |
1 |
4 |
Among respondents who have already voted, Warnock is at 58%, with Republicans Collins at 19% and Loeffler at 17%. Democratic spoiler Matt Lieberman has just 1% of cast ballots. Of those who haven’t voted, 3% say they support Lieberman. Would sure be nice for them to defect to Warnock.
What about the rest of those likely voters who still haven’t cast their ballots? It’s Warnock 34%, Collins 29%, and Loeffler 28%. Collins is the conservative Trumpy firebrand, with Loeffler the appointed incumbent. They’re both awful. Luckily, in runoff matchups, Warnock beats them both easily: 51-37 against Loeffler, and 51-42 against Collins.
I’ll note that most other polling doesn’t have Warnock doing so well, having consolidated the Democratic vote to this extent.
There is something truly special going on in Georgia, and it didn’t happen by accident. Georgia Democrats have been fighting hard to register non-performing voters, and turning them out to vote. The state has almost 1 million new voters since 2016.
- The number of voters under the age of 35 years old is up 22%—making up half of the new voters. According to a late-September Georgia poll by Civiqs, Biden is winning 18-34-year-old voters by a 53-40 margin. Of course, these are the lowest performing voters, but more on that in a bit.
- Of that million new voters, 200,000 were registered in the last three months alone. That’s …. staggeringly mind-blowing!
- Of those who gave their race, 53% of new voters are white, 30% are Black, and 4% are Latino. According to exit polls, 60% of Georgia voters were white in 2016. The state’s electorate is getting browner, which is terrible news for the GOP.
Help get out the vote, and leave nothing on the road.