When word got out that Trump was going to Nebraska on Tuesday, I knew this race was all but over. A Republican going to Nebraska at this stage is like a Democrat going to Baltimore.
Well, now I’m sure of it, based on a new district-level poll in PA-07, covering the heart of the Lehigh Valley. WFMZ-TV in Allentown, the only local commercial TV station in the Lehigh Valley (for those who don’t know, the Lehigh Valley is part of the Philly market) recently did a poll with locally based DeSales University which shows Biden carrying that district in a rout. The results should scare the pants off the red team.
For those who don’t know, this is classic Reagan Democrat territory. The current congresswoman, Susan Wild, is only the second Democrat to represent this area in 40 years. Pat Toomey once represented this district (it was the 15th during Toomey’s time, it became the 7th after a court-ordered redistricting). Hillary would have barely carried it in 2016 under its current lines; Trump won the old PA-15 by eight.
Simply put, if Biden is going gangbusters here, Pennsylvania is pretty close to being in the bag. And all indications are that if Biden carries Pennsylvania, it’s game over for Trump.
Take this as incentive to twist the knife. We need the margin to be large enough that Trump can’t scream “RIGGED!”