The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Race Ratings: There's just one week to go before Election Day, and with the political climate looking as grim as it ever has for Republicans in numerous contests, Daily Kos Elections is changing our race ratings in 18 different House seats. A total of 15 contests move in the direction of the Democrats while two move to the right; our final rating is in an all-Democratic contest in California. You can find all of our Senate, gubernatorial, and House ratings at each link.
● AK-AL (Likely R to Lean R): Republican Rep. Don Young defeated Alyse Galvin, an independent who earned the Democratic nomination, 53-47 in 2018, making it in the incumbent's closest election in a decade, and their rematch for Alaska's At-Large Congressional District is looking even more competitive.
Major outside groups from both sides have spent a total of $2.3 million after almost completely bypassing the state two years ago, but recent polls disagree which candidate has the edge. It would still be an upset if Young lost the seat he's held for almost half a century, but the well-funded Galvin is putting up a very tough fight.
● CA-04 (Safe R to Likely R): Republican Rep. Tom McClintock won re-election by a solid 54-46 last cycle against a credible Democratic opponent in California's 4th Congressional District, but he faces another well-funded foe in businesswoman Brynne Kennedy.
McClintock has yet to respond to either of Kennedy's polls, including an October Lake Partners internal that found her down just 49-45; that survey also showed Trump ahead only 47-46 in a constituency that he took 54-39. This sprawling district, which includes the northern Sacramento suburbs, is very tough turf for Team Blue, but Kennedy's resources could give her an outside shot in a strong Democratic year.
● CA-10 (Likely D to Safe D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Harder won California's 10th District in a very expensive 2018 race, but Republicans have failed to put this Modesto area seat in play this time. In May, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the state party retracted their endorsements of Republican Ted Howze after numerous bigoted social media posts of his surfaced. Howze has done nothing over the following five months to demonstrate that he can give Harder a real challenge, and national Republicans have continued to ignore him.
● CA-45 (Likely D to Safe D): Republicans began the cycle planning to target freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in California's 45th District, but this is another contest that's disappeared from the battleground list. Porter's fundraising has reached levels that would be credible in a Senate race, let alone a House campaign, while her GOP foe, Mission Viejo Council Member Greg Raths, has struggled to attract attention. This Irvine-based seat has also swung hard to the left over the last few years, and both parties have bypassed it as they focus on other Southern California races.
● CA-53 (No Favorite to Lean Jacobs): Former State Department official Sara Jacobs goes into the final days of the all-Democratic contest for California's 53rd District with the advantage over San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez. Every poll we've seen has shown Jacobs ahead, including a recent offering from SurveyUSA that showed her up 40-27. The wealthy Jacobs also has considerably more resources at her disposal than Gómez. Same-party races are unpredictable and Gómez could yet pull off a surprise, but Jacobs is the one to beat here.
● GA-07 (Tossup to Lean D): Georgia's open 7th Congressional District is one of many historically red suburban areas that has moved sharply to the left during the Trump era, and Republicans are the underdogs in this year's contest to hold retiring Rep. Rob Woodall's seat.
Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux came within a hair of beating Woodall last cycle, and Team Red's current nominee, emergency room physician Rich McCormick, faces a big financial disadvantage against her this time. Both parties are spending heavily in a race where no one has released polls in months, so a McCormick victory is still a real possibility, but he'd need to overcome many obstacles arrayed against him.
● IL-17 (Safe D to Likely D): Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos has always decisively won re-election in Illinois' 17th District even after it swung from 58-41 Obama to 47.4-46.7 Trump, but Republicans are acting like the DCCC chair is vulnerable. Polls released by the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund in October have found Bustos 5 to 6 points ahead of real estate attorney Esther Joy King, and CLF put its money where its mouth is with an ad buy in the final days of the race. It would be a huge shocker if Bustos lost, but this contest is worth keeping an eye on.
● KS-03 (Likely D to Safe D): Rep. Sharice Davids is yet another freshman Democrat who is secure just two years after winning a competitive race. Kansas' 3rd District, like so many other well-educated suburban areas, has harshly rejected the GOP over the last few years, and the major outside groups that spent heavily here in 2018 have ignored the race between Davids and former state Republican Party chair Amanda Adkins.
● NH-01 (Lean D to Likely D): New Hampshire's 1st District is swingy turf that narrowly backed both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, but it's not looking like it will be a major target this fall. The big outside players have not spent anything in the contest between freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Trump aide Matt Mowers, and every poll that's been released has shown the incumbent well ahead. The Granite State is volatile enough that this district can probably never be regarded as truly safe for one party or the other, but a Pappas defeat would be a big surprise.
● NJ-03 (Tossup to Lean D): Incumbent Andy Kim began the year looking like one of the more vulnerable members of the freshman Democratic class, but he has the advantage going into the final days of the race for New Jersey's 3rd District. Kim has massively outspent wealthy businessman David Richter, who has received only about $100,000 in outside support from national Republicans—a pittance in a South Jersey seat where it costs a massive amount to effectively advertise on TV.
Kim's allies have spent $2.6 million to shore him up, so they don't think he's a lock in this 51-45 Trump district, but Richter is the one who needs something unexpected to happen in order to prevail.
● NJ-07 (Tossup to Lean D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski faces a well-funded challenge in New Jersey's 7th District from state Senate Republican Leader Tom Kean Jr., but the incumbent is the favorite in the homestretch of the campaign. This North Jersey seat is another suburban district that's shifted to the left in the Trump era, and Kean will need to win support from Biden voters to win. Both parties have spent a total of $7.5 million, though, so no one is acting like Kean can't pull off an upset.
● NV-03 (Likely D to Lean D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Susie Lee is still the frontrunner to keep Nevada's 3rd District, a seat in Las Vegas' southern suburbs that narrowly supported both Obama and Trump, against former professional wrestler Dan Rodimer. However, both parties have spent a total of $5.8 million, which suggests Lee hasn't put Rodimer away. Nevada is also one of the few Clinton states that Trump is making a serious effort to flip, but even if he falls short statewide, it's possible he could do well enough in this district to boost Rodimer.
● NY-19 (Likely D to Safe D): Freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado flipped New York's 19th Congressional District after a very expensive 2018 contest, but even though Trump won this seat 51-44, it's become almost invisible to Republicans. The party's nominee, Army veteran Kyle Van De Water, raised a grand total of $100,000 through mid-October, which is a fraction of a fraction of what he'd need to run a credible campaign in this Hudson Valley district. Both parties agree this race is locked in, as there's been no serious outside spending here.
● OH-12 (Safe R to Likely R): Major outside groups haven't spent anything on Ohio's 12th District, but there are reasons to keep an eye on the battle between Republican Rep. Troy Balderson and his Democratic opponent, businesswoman Alaina Shearer. While Trump carried this suburban Columbus seat by a wide 53-42 margin, Balderson had to win two competitive contests in 2018 to keep it in GOP hands. Shearer also released a Public Policy Polling survey late in the campaign that showed Balderson and Trump up only 48-44 and 48-47, respectively, and we have yet to see a response from Team Red.
● PA-01 (Lean R to Tossup): Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick ran well ahead of the top of the GOP ticket during his first two contests, but his crossover appeal faces its greatest test this year in his race against Democrat Christina Finello. Pennsylvania's 1st District, which includes all of Bucks County north of Philadelphia, is the type of suburban seat that Joe Biden is poised to do very well in. Finello also has raised a credible amount of money after a late start, and national Democrats have poured in a serious amount to aid her in the final stretch of the election.
● PA-08 (Lean D to Likely D): The DCCC cut back its ad reservations for Pennsylvania's 8th District in late September in an optimistic sign for Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright's prospects, and that confidence appears to have been well-placed.
National Republicans have yet to spend anything to support former Trump administration official Jim Bognet, whose own October poll showed him trailing the incumbent 48-43; in another dire sign for Team Red, that same survey also found Biden leading 48-46 in a Scranton-area seat that Trump won 53-44. House Majority PAC is still airing ads for Cartwright so the contest isn't over yet, but he looks like he's in a good place.
● TX-06 (Safe R to Likely R): Freshman Republican Rep. Ron Wright won Texas' 6th District 53-45 two years ago, but he could have problems if Donald Trump's numbers crash even more in conservative suburban seats like this one. Attorney Stephen Daniel is betting that they will: The Democratic nominee released an October poll from GBAO that gave Wright only a 45-41 edge as Biden led 46-45 in a district Trump took 54-42.
There has been no serious outside spending in this seat, which contains Arlington and rural areas south of Dallas, so Daniel remains very much the underdog, but this is another race where a surprise is possible in a wave year.
● TX-31 (Safe R to Likely R): Longtime Republican Rep. John Carter only held onto Texas' 31st District 51-48 last cycle, and this seat in Austin's northern suburbs is another place where Donald Trump could be a big drag on the GOP ticket.
A September survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Carter leading businesswoman Donna Imam only 43-37 as Trump held just a 48-47 edge in a seat he carried 54-41 four years ago. Those numbers didn't convince any major outside groups to get involved here, though, but a good showing at the top of the ticket could give Iman the chance to pull off a major upset.
Senate
● GA-Sen-B, GA-Sen-A: Joe Biden cemented Raphael Warnock's status as the undisputed Democratic frontrunner in Georgia's special election for the Senate when he announced his endorsement of Warnock's campaign on Monday, one day before Biden himself is scheduled to visit the state. Biden also endorsed Jon Ossoff in Georgia's other Senate race.
● MN-Sen: Republican Jason Lewis' campaign said Monday afternoon that the candidate was recuperating following a "successful and minimally invasive" surgery that had taken place that day to remove what it described hours before as a "severe internal hernia, a diagnosis which they indicated is life-threatening if not treated quickly." Lewis' team also said after the procedure, "Provided that his recovery continues on a positive trajectory, doctors anticipate that he is likely to be released from the hospital in the next couple of days."
● NC-Sen: Democrat Cal Cunningham is out with a TV commercial in response to the many Republican commercials hitting him over his past relationship with a woman who is not his wife. Cunningham speaks directly to the camera and says of the Republican incumbent, "Thom Tillis is desperately attacking my personal life because he doesn't want to talk about his own record."
The Democrat continues by arguing that Tillis has endangered his constituents’ health care because "Thom Tillis is working for corporate interests and lobbyists and not you." Cunningham concludes, "[I]t may be my name on the ballot, but it's your healthcare."
● NM-Sen: The Republican firm Medium Buying reported Monday that Senate Majority PAC would start airing ads the following day to support Democrat Ben Ray Luján in a contest that has attracted little outside attention. There is no word yet on how much SMP is deploying.
● SC-Sen: Jaime Harrison is continuing to air TV commercials aimed at influencing conservative voters skeptical of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham to back Constitution Party nominee Bill Bledsoe, who remains on the ballot even though he dropped out earlier this month and endorsed the incumbent. Harrison's latest spot features a clip of Bledsoe saying of the senator, "We did not take responsibility for Lindsey Graham. He is a puppet." The narrator then says, "Bledsoe was pro-Trump from day one. Opposes all abortions. And Bledsoe's against gun control."
● WI-Sen: On Monday, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson became the first Democrat to announce a bid against Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022. Johnson himself has not yet said what he'll do in the election cycle that begins next week: While RoJo insisted during his 2016 re-election that his second term would be his last, he said last year that he wasn't ruling out seeking a third term.
Nelson has a long career in Wisconsin politics going back to 2004, when he was the only Democrat to beat a Republican incumbent in a contest for the state Assembly. Nelson rose to become majority leader, and he left to become the party's 2010 lieutenant governor nominee. The ticket led by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett lost, but Nelson quickly regained elected office the following year when he was elected executive of Outagamie County, which is home to Appleton.
In 2016, a few months after he was re-elected for four years without opposition, Nelson kicked off a bid to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Reid Ribble in the 8th Congressional District, a northeastern Wisconsin seat that Mitt Romney had carried only 51-48. However, while this contest looked like it would be a top Democratic priority right after Ribble announced his departure, that's not how things ended up.
Marine veteran Mike Gallagher proved to be a strong Republican candidate in what turned out to be a very good year for his party locally, and major outside groups on both sides ended up canceling ad time in the weeks before Election Day. The district went on to back Trump 56-39, and Gallagher defeated Nelson by an even wider 63-37 margin. Three years after that defeat, though, Nelson won another uncontested race for re-election as Outagamie County executive.
P.S. There are plenty of other Democrats who may be interested in the Senate race, and we'll take a look at the potential field after this Election Day.
● Polls: Not all our polls are from Texas or Georgia. Just a lot.
- AL-Sen: Cygnal (R) for Ready Education Network: Tommy Tuberville (R): 55, Doug Jones (D-inc): 41 (June: 50-36 Tuberville)
- GA-Sen-A: University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Jon Ossoff (D): 46, David Perdue (R-inc): 45, Shane Hazel (L): 4 (47-46 Biden) (Sept.: 49-41 Perdue)
- GA-Sen-A: YouGov for CBS: Perdue (R): 47, Ossoff (D): 46 (49-49 presidential tie) (Sept.: 47-42 Perdue)
- GA-Sen-B: University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Raphael Warnock (D): 34, Doug Collins (R): 21, Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 20, Matt Lieberman (D): 4 (47-46 Biden) (early Oct.: Warnock: 28, Loeffler: 22, Collins: 21)
- MA-Sen: YouGov for UMass Amherst: Ed Markey (D-inc): 65, Kevin O'Connor (R): 26 (64-29 Biden)
- NC-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Cal Cunningham (D): 49, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 43 (51-47 Biden) (Sept.: 48-38 Cunningham)
- TX-Sen: Data for Progress (D) for Crooked Media and Indivisible: John Cornyn (R-inc): 48, MJ Hegar (D): 46, Kerry McKennon (L): 1 (49-48 Biden) (mid Oct.: 44-41 Cornyn)
- TX-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Cornyn (R-inc): 48, Hegar (D): 38, McKennon (L): 4 (47-43 Trump) (Sept.: 43-37 Cornyn)
- TX-Sen: University of Texas-Tyler for the Dallas News: Cornyn (R-Inc): 42, Hegar (D): 34, McKennon (L): 3, Collins (G): 2 (48-45 Biden) (Sept.: 39-28 Cornyn)
- TX-Sen: YouGov for the University of Houston: Cornyn (R-inc): 49, Hegar (D): 42, McKennon (L): 3, Collins (G): 1 (50-45 Trump) (early Oct.: 50-42 Cornyn)
GA-Sen-A: Almost every poll we've seen this month has shown neither Sen. David Perdue nor Jon Ossoff taking the majority of the vote they'd need to avert a January runoff.
That doesn't necessarily mean that a second round of voting is definitely in our future, though. Most surveys of the Peach State's 2018 gubernatorial election also found neither Republican Brian Kemp or Democrat Stacey Abrams over 50%, but Kemp managed to take the bare majority he needed, albeit in in a very flawed election overseen by Kemp himself.
● Senate Forecast: In this week's installment of the Daily Kos Elections Senate Forecast, David Jarman takes a closer look at two seats held by Democrats that have mostly flown under the radar this year but have gotten noticeably more competitive in our averages in the last week: Alabama and Minnesota.
Gubernatorial
● MT-Gov: RMG Research for Political IQ: Greg Gianforte (R): 48, Mike Cooney (D): 45 (50-46 Trump)
● PR-Gov: We have two new surveys of next week's gubernatorial election in Puerto Rico, but they find quite a different state of play. Pollster Jorge Benítez, working on behalf of Radio Isla, gives pro-commonwealth Popular Democratic Party nominee Carlos Delgado a 35-32 lead over Pedro Pierluisi, the nominee of the pro-statehood New Progressive Party. Puerto Rican Independence Party nominee Juan Dalmau is in third with 14%, while Alexandra Lúgaro of the Victory Citizen Movement is at 12%.
The Democratic firm Beacon Research's new poll for the Puerto Rico Herald, though, has Pierluisi beating Delgado 31-26, while Dalmau is at 8%. Just like in almost all of the 50 states, it only takes a plurality to win the governorship.
● WI-Gov: Conservative activist Misty Polewczynski said Monday that her group had failed to collect enough signatures to force a recall election against Democratic Gov. Tony Evers or Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, an announcement that came a week after Polewczynski insisted she already had the 670,000 petitions needed in time for the Oct. 27 deadline. Polewczynski wrote on Facebook last week, though, "I'm going to do an interview this afternoon and will probably make up some crap to tell them." Polewczynski did not reveal on Monday how many signatures she actually did get, so we'll never know how much crap she was making up.
Republicans reportedly were pissed that Polewczynski insisted on launching the recall campaign against Evers and Barnes, who are both up for re-election in 2022, at a time when they were concentrating on the presidential race. It doesn't help that Wisconsin law allows governors to raise unlimited amounts of campaign cash when they're under the threat of a recall, a provision Evers seems to have taken full advantage of. The governor went up with what the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel described earlier this month as a "six-figure" ad going after Trump and GOP legislative leaders for "playing politics with our pandemic response."
House
● CA-53: Democratic Majority for Israel announced on Oct. 16 that it would air ads for San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez in the all-Democratic general election, and Jewish Insider reports that it is a "mid-six-figure ad buy, which will run on TV and digital." The spot praises Gómez as a progressive champion who "banned police chokeholds, listened to science on COVID-19, and provided rent relief."
● IL-17: On Saturday, the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund became the first major outside group to air ads in the race for this western Illinois seat. There's no word yet how much the group is spending against Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos, though OpenSecrets reported Monday that CLF had deployed $433,000 so far.
The move comes days after CLF released a poll from Public Opinion Strategies that showed Bustos leading Republican Esther Joy King 48-42 as Joe Biden edged out Donald Trump 45-44. CLF's allies at the NRCC also dropped a poll from the Tarrance Group that gave Bustos a 49-44 advantage, though the committee has yet to advertise here.
● MI-11: Independence USA, a group funded by former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, is spending at least $1.2 million to support freshman Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens.
● NC-08: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund deployed an additional $2 million over the weekend to aid Republican Rep. Richard Hudson against Democrat Pat Timmons-Goodson in a contest that only began attracting outside spending less than three weeks ago.
● PA-17: The Congressional Leadership Fund announced Monday that it was launching an ad campaign against Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb, which makes it the first of the big four House groups to go on the air in this suburban Pittsburgh seat. It's not clear yet how much CLF is spending to aid Republican Sean Parnell, who is one of Donald Trump's favorite candidates, though OpenSecrets had tracked nearly $150,000 on Monday.
● Independent Expenditures: Our penultimate weekly roundup of independent expenditures made by the "Big Four" House groups (the DCCC, House Majority PAC, NRCC, and Congressional Leadership Fund) is now available! During the time spanning Oct. 19-25, these organizations deployed an additional $82.7 million into House races nationwide, with $42.6 million of that coming from the Democrats and the remaining $40.1 million from the GOP. You can see these newest expenditures in columns N through V in our spreadsheet.
Eight seats are also seeing spending for the first time, and we've highlighted them in bold. In half of these districts the total outside spending was under $100,000, but there was a bit more action in the other four. We wrote recently that the CLF was going on the air to defend Florida's open 15th District, and we now know it spent $208,000 through Sunday.
On the other side, HMP deployed just under $275,000 to aid Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood in Illinois' 14th District; the group announced last week that it was launching a $560,000 ad buy, so we should expect to see more HMP spending here next week. HMP also spent money in two contests that haven't attracted much notice: It dropped $155,000 to aid Rep. Josh Gottheimer in New Jersey's 5th District, which is still a small sum for a seat in the expensive New York City media market, and $287,000 to help Rep. Steven Horsford in Nevada's 4th District.
Meanwhile, the district with the most new spending over the last week was New York's 11th District, which also had this distinction last week: $2 million came from Democrats looking to defend freshman Rep. Max Rose, while $1.6 million was from Republicans helping Nicole Malliotakis. Not far behind was New York's 22nd, where freshman Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi is fighting a rematch with former GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney. Republicans spent $2.2 million in this upstate New York seat, while Democrats deployed $1.2 million.
You can also find a summary of all spending to date in columns D through L. Not too surprisingly, the two seats that have attracted the most outside spending are the ones above: $13.4 million has been dropped in New York's 22nd, while $12.9 million has been spent to date in New York's 11th.
These two Empire State constituencies edge out Iowa's 2nd District, which last week had the honor of hosting the most expensive House race in America. However, the big four are still hardly letting up in this open Democratic-held seat: GOP groups spent $962,000 in the last week, compared to $939,000 from Team Blue.
● Polls:
- AR-02: ALG Research for Joyce Elliott: French Hill (R-inc): 47, Joyce Elliott (D): 47 (Sept.: 48-48 tie)
- CO-03: DCCC Analytics: Diane Mitsch Bush (D): 44, Lauren Boebert (R): 43, John Keil (L): 5, Critter Milton (Unity Party): 2 (Trump 46-45)
- FL-15: Change Research (D) for Florida Democratic Party: Scott Franklin (R): 46, Alan Cohn (D): 44 (47-45 Trump)
- MI-03: Strategic National (R): Hillary Scholten (D): 50, Peter Meijer (R): 42 (52-41 Biden)
- MT-AL: RMG Research for Political IQ: Kathleen Williams (D): 47, Matt Rosendale (R): 47 (50-46 Trump)
- NY-24: Siena College for Syracuse.com: Dana Balter (D): 45, John Katko (R-inc): 45, Steven Williams (Working Families): 5 (53-39 Biden) (Sept.: 42-40 Balter)
- OK-05: Amber Integrated (R): Stephanie Bice (R) 49, Kendra Horn (D-inc): 44 (49-40 Trump)
- TX-03: DCCC Analytics: Lulu Seikaly (D): 44, Van Taylor (R-inc): 42, Chris Claytor (L): 8 (51-40 Biden)
CO-03: The only other poll we've seen since Labor Day was a mid-September Expedition Strategies for House Majority PAC that showed Diane Mitsch Bush up 46-44, with the two third-party contenders taking a total of 4%. But while data is limited here, both sides are acting like the contest for this 52-40 Trump seat in western Colorado is competitive. National Democrats have spent $1.5 million here through Sunday, while the GOP has dropped just shy of $1 million to aid QAnon defender Lauren Boebert.
MI-03: The GOP firm Strategic National, which did not mention a client, did something odd with this survey. Pollster John Yob explained that his "sample came back at +4 Democrat in the 3rd congressional district. Although Kent County has gone Democrat on a few occasions in recent years, it would still be perceived as unusual to release a poll showing a +4 Democrat party advantage in the 3rd Congressional District."
Yob, who said that the firm usually does little if any party weighing in its surveys, therefore released another version weighed by party that gave Republican respondents a 4-point advantage: Under this scenario, the congressional race was tied 46-46, while Biden led 48-45. Weighing a poll by party is always a dicey proposition, though, as plenty of conservatives learned the hard way in 2012 when they tried to "unskew" surveys they felt had too many Democratic respondents.
While demographic features like race, age group, and education level usually don't change for individual respondents in the short term (if at all), someone could very well label themselves as a member of a different party depending on what's happening in the news that year or even that day. That means that it's very possible that a historically red area like Kent County could very well have more people who consider themselves Democrats than Republicans, especially if enough voters are angry at the Republican Party.
Yob seemed pretty skeptical about this weighted version, though, since he conceded, "Again it must be emphasized that the random sample was Democrat +4 and therefore there is a very good chance that the party identification at this point in time in the 3rd Congressional District is indeed closer to Democrat +4."
TX-03: We've seen one other poll since Labor Day, a mid-September GSG poll for the DCCC that had Rep. Van Taylor leading Lulu Seikaly 44-43, with another 5% going to Libertarian Chris Claytor. So far, there has been no major outside spending in this seat, which includes Plano in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and backed Trump 55-41, but Democrats are hoping this another suburban district will swing hard to the left.
Mayoral
● Miami-Dade County, FL Mayor: Democrat Daniella Levine Cava has released a new survey from SEA Research that shows her leading Republican Steve Bovo 45-30 in next week's officially nonpartisan contest; the sample also finds Joe Biden up 58-37 in Miami-Dade County, which Hillary Clinton carried 62-34 four years ago.
Levine Cava, who would be the first Democrat to lead Florida's largest county since 2004, has publicized a number of internal polls since the August primary, while we have yet to see anything from Bovo's side. The firm that has released numbers here that isn't aligned with either candidate is the Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi International, whose early October poll for the Miami Herald had Levine Cava ahead 45-35.
● San Diego, CA Mayor: The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that City Councilwoman Barbara Bry, who has self-funded a portion of her campaign, has outspent Assemblyman Todd Gloria $1 million to $523,000 over the last month in the all-Democratic contest to lead America's eighth-largest city. Pro-Gloria groups, though, outspent Bry's supporters $1.1 million to $430,000 during this time, and Gloria held a $252,000 to $64,000 cash-on-hand edge for the remainder of the contest.
Ballot Measures
● MA Ballot: YouGov's new poll for UMass Amherst finds Question 2, which would make Massachusetts the second state in America to adopt instant-runoff voting, ahead by a narrow 48-43 margin. This is the first survey we've seen since early August when MassINC found a 36-36 tie. (A mid-October Ipsos poll of state adults found a 45-31 plurality supported the idea of ranked-choice voting, but it didn't ask 2020 voters about this particular measure.)
If a majority back Question 2 next week, then starting in 2022, instant-runoff would be used in both primaries and general elections for governor and other statewide offices; U.S. Senate and House seats; the state legislature; and countywide posts such as district attorney and sheriff. The measure would not impact presidential elections or races for city and town offices.
Data
● County Benchmarks: As part of our ongoing look at the key counties that you should be keeping an eye on come next Tuesday, we turned our attention to the great state of Texas. This one-time Republican stronghold has become a legitimate battleground, and we explore nine counties which could give us a key early indication of whether the Democratic surge in the Lone Star State is real, or a mirage. Check it out!
Grab Bag
● Deaths: David Karnes, a Republican who was the surprise appointee to a Nebraska Senate seat in 1987, died Sunday at the age of 71. Karnes, who was an executive at an Omaha lumber and grain business, had served as a congressional district campaign chairman for Republican Kay Orr during her successful 1986 bid for governor and advised her on agriculture issues, but he otherwise had little political experience or connections before he reached the Senate.
Orr was tasked with choosing a new senator after Democrat Edward Zorinsky died in office, and observers from both parties were truly shocked when she chose the unknown Karnes. GOP insiders suggested to the New York Times at the time that Orr had made the appointment because she saw it as a good way to avert what could have been a bloody primary between better-known Republicans. Orr also reportedly believed that Karnes, a businessman who was the youngest member of the Senate, would prove to be a strong opponent for Democrat Bob Kerrey, who was very popular after leaving the governorship the previous year.
If that's what Orr intended, though, it didn't work. Rep. Hal Daub, who had sought the appointment, challenged the more moderate Karnes in the 1988 primary and ran commercials declaring the senator "wants to raise your taxes." Karnes, for his part, struck back by saying Daub wanted to cut Social Security, and he ended up winning 55-45.
Karnes then had to face off against Kerrey, who had little intra-party opposition. Polls taken during the GOP primary showed Kerrey beating either Republican by more than 20 points, and Karnes never made up enough ground to make the race competitive; it didn't help when he declared, "We need fewer farmers" at the state fair and later called for eliminating farm subsidies. Karnes also ended up pulling an ad where he linked Kerrey, who had lost his leg in the Vietnam War, to anti-war actress Jane Fonda.
George H.W. Bush carried Nebraska 60-39, but Kerrey unseated Karnes 57-42. Karnes never sought elected office again, but he remained active in Omaha civic life.
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