Texas Early Vote: Final Wrapup, and on to Election Day! EDIT: PPP Biden +2

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Saturday October 31, 2020 · 7:32 AM PDT

2020/10/31 · 07:32

This is the time. WE'VE GOT THIS, Texas!

This series of diaries has been a labor of love — but I’ve managed to keep up with the 18 days of early voting (with one day missed). I’m astounded. For all I believed we’d see an increase in early voting, and I do believe we’ll see a decrease in election day voting, I never truly believed we’d hit these numbers.

9.7 million Texans have already voted.

That’s more than in all of 2016, and if we’re going to reach 2016 percentages, we’re only half a million voters short. But the likelihood of that is low, given 20% of those polled said they were planning on voting election day.

If that’s the case, if we have another 20% turn out, that makes it 12 million voters. If it turns out some voted already, or don’t make it out? Let’s say 15% of the total vote is cast election day. That’s still 11.3 million voters — which is still two thirds of all registered voters in the state, and an increase of six percent turnout over 2016 (60% to 66% registered voters), all while ignoring that the percentage of eligible voters who are registered has also climbed over that time period thanks to incredible voter registration drives.

EDIT: Adding at the top so it’s easier to see! Somehow I missed this, but PPP’s final TX poll: Biden +2. In Texas.

Texas Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 50% (-)
Trump (R): 48% (-1)

PPP / October 29, 2020 / n=775 / Telephone

(% chg w Oct 8)https://t.co/08uMcmGxdj
— Polling USA 🎃 (@USA_Polling) October 31, 2020

COUNTY	26 OCT	27 OCT	28 OCT	29 OCT	30 Oct	Early Vote Total	RV%	2016 TOTAL	2018 TOTAL
HARRIS	58,602	57,472	61,781	74,634	90,306	1,436,489	57.91	1.312M	1.208M
DALLAS*	29,840	30,771	32,670	40,185	52,702	799,437	57.17	759k	728k
TARRANT	34,660	33,104	33,327	39,677	50,494	731,473	60.33	669k	628k
BEXAR*	29,508	27,349	29,130	32,548	42,677	681,173	57.27	590k	550k
TRAVIS	21,171	21,775	23,828	26,032	32,044	553,290	64.74	469k	484k
COLLIN*	15,201	14,890	15,171	18,014	24,038	477,904	69.05	361k	356k
DENTON	14,082	13,916	14,061	16,793	22,416	380,857	67.40	299k	296k
EL PASO*	8,997	5,119	8,835	10,865	16,655	221,723	45.39	214k	204k
FT BEND*	13,577	13,068	12,996	14,236	19,193	327,865	67.97	262k	255k
HIDALGO	6,902	7,214	7,672	9,985	14,509	187,893	48.02	173k	152k
WILLIAMSON	10,315	9,211	10,745	12,008	15,222	263,020	69.83	203k	208k
MONTGOMERY	12,123	11,281	10,770	11,290	14,548	237,186	64.09	205k	190k
GALVESTON*	4,971	4,499	4,550	5,089	7,706	137,151	60.03	123k	114k
BRAZORIA	5,264	4,744	4,975	5,491	7,998	139,515	62.21	121k	112k
CAMERON*	3,593	3,522	3,568	4,556	7,305	96,340	44.01	92k	78k
TOTALS	268,806	252,935	274,079	322,403	417,849	6,671,316		*5.85M*	5.56M

*These counties I was having trouble isolating their mail-in votes, so this is just in-person. The totals do account for both, though!

**Sources for these numbers come from a mix of county and state sources. Direct county statistics: Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Travis, Denton, El Paso, Ft Bend, Hidalgo, Williamson, Montgomery, Brazoria. From the SoS site only: Dallas, Bexar, Collin, Galveston, Cameron.

BEXAR COUNTY: At time of writing this, the TX SoS site was missing yesterday’s vote, which is 42k. That raises their 9.67M total 2020 votes to at least 9.7M.

Analysis

Again, does this say more Dems have voted? No, though the rate of non-college whites has been underperforming. Does that match previous years, and is made up on election day? No idea. Have Democrats simply cannibalized their election day voters? No idea, though the percentage of first-time voters is very promising. We simply have no way to know any of these answers between the pandemic, extra week of early voting, Trump actively casting doubt on mail-in voting, and everything else.

We know some things. We know that already, we have between 57 and 58% of all Texas voters have already cast their vote (the TX SoS site at the time of writing had 57.03% having cast their votes, but they’re also missing the 42k votes in Bexar County, and have zeros for about 20 other counties, so that percentage will rise).

When push comes to shove, the biggest difference between the Democratic party and the Republican party right now is that we believe that everyone should have a voice. Therefore, I will argue that this many voters is only good, and more voters will be better. Is this shaped by the fact I believe a lot of Texans had given up on voting because it accomplished nothing? Yes. Is it shaped by the fact the GOP has been consistently attempting to disenfranchise the young, POC, those in cities, and the poor? Yes. THOSE VOICES are the ones we need to lift up the most, because they’re so often forgotten, minimized, or simply not heard over the way things are.

This election? The youth are turning out. First time voters are turning out. Latino participation is up. Asian participation is 30-40% over 2016. African American participation is steady.

This is exactly what the GOP has feared. This is what their gerrymanders aren’t designed to deal with. Cornyn didn’t model anything over 10.5M for turnout...because he couldn’t conceive of voters able and willing to overcome voter suppression and standing up to be heard not just in social media (because that’s all he thinks we do), but at the ballot box. These numbers have the GOP shaking in their boots, which is why they keep trying to invalidate legal, cast ballots.

Do I think Texas is going blue?

YES. Yes, I do. We had a shot in 2018 and came short by 200k votes. I think we’ve got it this year — and more than that? I’m going out on a limb and saying we’re going to win by 2-3 points.

We’ll get the Presidency.

We’ve got a 50/50 shot at the Senate seat.

We’ll get the Texas State House.

Now GOTV and help us make it happen!

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Make YOUR voice heard!

Texas Early Vote: Final Wrapup, and on to Election Day! EDIT: PPP Biden +2

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