On Saturday I wrote that Donald Trump’s “coronavirus diagnosis and hospitalization will crush his supporters’ intensity, damage both turnout and even the possibility of post-Election Day violence.” It was pure conjecture at the time, but Trump’s every action this weekend suggests that even if it’s not true, Trump himself believes it.
The contour of the argument is simple:
1. Trump’s entire schtick is that he’s America’s Putin-like strongman, appealing to the deplorable base’s need for a strong daddy.
2. He’s not winning this election via votes, so he needs the Proud Boy militia types in his bid to sow chaos post-election and retain power.
3. He can’t sustain the anger and sense of grievance necessary to keep his supporters agitated if he’s weak and frail, fighting off diseases in a hospital bed.
Electorally, this isn’t so much a problem for Trump. He’s already losing. But it’s utterly devastating to Republicans, who are already facing deep losses. Democrats in places like Kansas, South Carolina, and even Mississippi (!) are posing strong challenges in what should be safe Republican territory, and every Trump supporters who tunes the election out because his Big Daddy is actually a frail broken old man is one more obstacle those Republicans must overcome.
And as for Trump, how can he contest an election if he can’t project power and strength?
It’s clear Trump is keenly aware of that challenge, thus leading to utterly reckless and potentially self-destructive behavior.
For example, he decided to put his Secret Service detail at severe risk by staging a ridiculous photo op, driving around the block in his motorcade to wave at supporters outside Walter Reed Medical Center.
The comparisons to his Lafayette Square PR stunt were clear and obvious—the one where he violently cleared out protesters in order to wave a Bible outside a church across the park. While Lafayette Park was the brainchild of superspreader Hope Hicks and Jared Kushner, I would bet this one is all Trump, yet equally outrageous and ineffective.
He reinforced the damage with his recorded message from inside his hospital suite: “We're going to pay a little surprise to some of the great patriots. They've got Trump flags and they love our country so I'm not telling anybody but you but I'm about to make a little surprise visit so perhaps I'll get there before you get to see me.”
His message wasn’t directed at well-wishers around the country, or directed at all Americans. He was hyper focused on the kind of supporters who would stage a vigil outside his hospital, the “great patriots,” the ones with “Trump flags.” It was microtargeting at its most absurd extreme.
Then there was Trump pretending to “work.” If by “work” you mean “sign blank pieces of paper because why even pretend they’re real?”
All of this stagecraft has one purpose: to maintain the appearance of strength, health, and vigor necessary to maintain his hold on his deplorable base. Everyone else looks on with abject horror at the whole embarrassing spectacle. Two polls so far have been conducted entirely after Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis. YouGov was 44-37 immediately before COVID-19, 48-40 after COVID-19. Ipsos for Reuters was 50-41 before COVID-19, and 51-41 after COVID-19. Both of those are a net +1 toward Democratic nominee Joe Biden, which doesn’t seem like much, and it isn’t much.
But it does suggest that Trump isn’t getting any “sympathy bounce,” and why would he? Just the act of putting his Secret Service security detail in grave danger is reason alone to deny Trump any benefit of the doubt.
As I’ve said over and over again, people’s minds are made up. You won’t see big swings in public opinion. But we don’t need big swings to dramatically change the results of this election. If 1-2% of Americans swing away from Trump and the Republicans, and maybe 5% of Trump’s most ardent supporters stay home, dejected at their impending loss and broken hero, then we’re talking about picking up 20 more House seats instead of single digits. We’re talking a Senate that goes from 50-50 or 51-49 Democratic to 55-45.
A big Senate majority means an easier end to the filibuster, statehood for Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico (if its residents want it), and the passage of more aggressive action on health care, climate change, economic stimulus, and all sorts of other Democratic priorities.
And court expansion. Definitely court expansion.
A bigger Democratic wave means we take control of more state legislatures, meaning better legislation for millions, as well as bigger Democratic say in redistricting both at the state and federal levels.
There is so much at stake, which is why Trump is panicking at the thought of being trapped in that hospital suite. It’s why he’s staging these photo op stunts to keep his core supporters engaged and motivated. He can’t afford to see any slippage or loss of intensity. And Trump’s Republican Party even less so.
It is a gamble, however. Imagine if Trump does talk his doctors into releasing him today. He is the president, after all—it’ll be hard to lock him up against his will. What happens if he degenerates over the next week or two? What happens if he has to be taken back to the hospital, except this time on a gurney?
We only have four weeks left. But we still have four weeks left.
There will be more twists and turns to this story. That is just about inevitable.