The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Demographics: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to present our comprehensive guide to all the major-party nominees running in every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election this November.
Our guide includes data on age, gender, race or ethnicity, religious affiliation, LGBTQ status, and even name pronunciation for many candidates, including all of those running in the most competitive contests. We've also included Daily Kos Elections' current race ratings for each office, along with our calculation of the 2016 and 2012 presidential election results for every House district.
Campaign Action
We'll be continually updating this guide as we come across new information, and it will form the basis for our comprehensive guide to the 117th Congress following the election. You can find similar data for the 116th Congress here, which includes all of the above data for every member of Congress, as well as additional electoral and demographic stats for the constituencies they represent.
This year's House candidates have set new records for diversity, though there's still a ways to go toward equality. Among Democrats, 48% of the candidates for whom we have data are women, 38% are people of color, at least 21 individuals are LGBTQ, and at least 38 are Hindu, Jewish, or Muslim. While Republicans are still overwhelmingly white, Christian, male, and non-LGBTQ, they, too, have slowly seen the diversity of their recruits increase compared to past years. They still lag Democrats badly, however: Just 22% of their candidates are women and 18% are people of color.
This guide was compiled by Daily Kos Elections' Stephen Wolf and Daniel Donner. We owe a special thanks to the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies, the Center for Responsive Politics, the Forward, Indian Country Today, the Justice Education Technology Political Advocacy Center, the LGBTQ Victory Fund, and Rutgers University's Center for American Women and Politics for sharing a host of demographic data with us.
3Q FUNDRAISING
● AK-Sen: Al Gross (I/D) $9 million raised, $5 million cash-on-hand
● CO-Sen: John Hickenlooper (D): $22.6 million raised, $7.2 million cash-on-hand
● AR-02: Joyce Elliott (D): $1.4 million raised
● AZ-06: Hiral Tipirneni (D): $2.5 million raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand
● CA-25: Christy Smith (D): $1.3 million raised
● NM-02: Xochitl Torres Small (D-inc): $2.4 million raised, $1.7 million cash-on-hand
● NV-04: Steven Horsford (D-inc): $680,000 raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand
● NY-02: Jackie Gordon (D): $1.8 million raised
● PA-10: Eugene DePasquale (D): $1.7 million raised, $550,000 cash-on-hand
● PA-17: Sean Parnell (R): $1.6 million raised
● WA-03: Carolyn Long (D): $1.24 million raised
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Democrat Mark Kelly’s newest commercial features footage of him blasting off into space as the retired astronaut talks about how the journey belongs to his parents, everyone he served with in the Navy, and the many people who worked in the space program for generations.
● CO-Sen: Republican incumbent Cory Gardner argues in his newest commercial that Colorado benefits from having by one senator from each party. This call for bipartisan representation will probably come as a complete surprise to his home state colleague, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. Gardner backed Republican Darryl Glenn's unsuccessful campaign to unseat Bennet back in 2016, saying that Glenn was "going to help grow and keep the Republican majority."
● MT-Sen: The Environmental Defense Fund has launched an $800,000 mail program in support of Democrat Steve Bullock.
● NC-Sen: On Tuesday evening, days after Democrat Cal Cunningham acknowledged he’d exchanged romantic text messages with a California public relations strategist named Arlene Guzman Todd, the Associated Press reported that it had obtained more messages between Guzman Todd and an unnamed friend in which she talked about her relationship with the married candidate.
Among other things, Guzman Todd wrote that she’d been intimate with Cunningham in July at his home in North Carolina, a detail she confirmed to the AP. The AP did not, however, explain how it obtained the messages, only saying that they “were not obtained from Guzman Todd." There is also still no word on how the conservative site National File, which posted screenshots of the original messages last week, acquired the texts.
On Wednesday, the Army Reserves announced that it was investigating “the matters” of the relationship between Cunningham, who is a lieutenant colonel, and Guzman Todd, though it provided no further details. The Uniform Code of Military Justice prohibits adultery, but criminal law expert Anthony Ghiotto told CBS 17, “For reservists like Cunningham, that’s only if they are in uniform performing their duty.”
Later the same day, Jeremy Todd, who is Guzman Todd’s husband, said that her involvement with Cunningham happened “during our marital separation” (the two are still married). While Todd called for Cunningham to leave the race, he also said that he thought the release of the messages between his wife and her unnamed friend were “results from foul play with ulterior motives.” He further asserted that some of the texts were “completely fabricated, as I’ve seen the real ones.”
Cunningham also publicly spoke to the media for the first time since last week and once again made it clear he’d continue running against Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
● SC-Sen: Senate Majority PAC is up with a new spot that once again aims to make Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham unpalatable to Trump voters. A man getting out of his golf cart tells the audience, "I love golf and I'm fine with Lindsey Graham playing golf with President Trump. But here's the rub: What does he do with all that access and supposed power?"
The golfer goes on, "Graham is against the president on term limits, he fights for drug companies and for cuts to Medicare and Social Security. Oh, and he's taken millions from special interests." He concludes, "Twenty five years in Congress has turned Lindsey Graham into a living, breathing example of the swamp we need to get rid of."
● Polls:
- AK-Sen: Alaska Survey Research: Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 48, Al Gross (D/I): 44 (50-46 Trump) (July: 53-40 Sullivan)
- AZ-Sen: Data Orbital (R): Mark Kelly (D): 49, Martha McSally (R-inc): 44 (48-43 Biden) (June: 50-43 Kelly)
- AZ-Sen: HighGround Public Affairs (R): Kelly (D): 50, McSally (R-inc): 44 (46-45 Biden) (May: 51-41 Kelly)
- AZ-Sen: Ipsos for Reuters: Kelly (D): 51, McSally (R-inc): 41 (48-46 Biden) (Sept: 50-41 Kelly)
- IA-Sen: Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos: Theresa Greenfield (D): 49, Joni Ernst (R-inc): 46 (48-47 Biden) (June: 48-45 Greenfield)
- IA-Sen: Quinnipiac: Greenfield (D): 50, Ernst (R-inc): 45 (50-45 Biden)
- MI-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Gary Peters (D-inc): 51, John James (R): 43 (51-43 Biden) (Sept.: 50-44 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Glengariff Group for The Detroit News/WDIV-TV: Peters (D-inc): 45, James (R): 40 (48-39 Biden) (Sept.: 44-41 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Tarrance Group (R) for John James: Peters (D-inc): 48, James (R): 46 (Sept.: 47-46 Peters)
- NC-Sen: Change Research (D) for CNBC: Cal Cunningham (D): 50, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 46 (49-47 Biden) (Sept.: 48-43 Cunningham)
- NM-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for NM Political Report: Ben Ray Luján (D): 51, Mark Ronchetti (R): 41 (53-39 Biden) (June: 48-34 Luján)
- TX-Sen: Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos: John Cornyn (R-inc): 47, MJ Hegar (D): 46 (48-48 presidential tie)
AK-Sen: Alaska Survey Research is run by Ivan Moore, who has worked for Democrat Ethan Berkowitz in the past. We’ve only seen two other polls here since the group’s last survey was released: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, polling on behalf of an unidentified client, found the Senate race tied 43-43, while a late September Harstad Research poll for Al Gross’ allies at Independent Alaska had Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan up 46-45.
TX-Sen: Civiqs’ poll for Daily Kos is quite a bit better for Democrat MJ Hegar than what most other firms have found. Prior to the inclusion of this poll, the Daily Kos Elections polling average stood at 46-38 Cornyn.
Gubernatorial
● Polls:
- IN-Gov: BK Strategies (R) for Eric Holcomb: Eric Holcomb (R-inc): 60, Woody Myers (D): 21 Donald Rainwater (L): 6 (May: 64-21 Holcomb)
- MO-Gov: Garin-Hart-Yang (D) for Nicole Galloway (D): Mike Parson (R-inc): 50, Nicole Galloway (D): 48 (50-48 Trump) (June: 47-40 Person)
- WV-Gov: Triton Polling & Research (R) for WMOV: Jim Justice (R-inc): 48, Ben Salango (D): 37, Erika Kolenich (L): 4, Daniel Lutz (Mountain Party): 4 (56-38 Trump)
IN-Gov: The only other poll we’ve seen here in months was an early September survey from the Democratic firm Change Research for the local news site Indy Politics that found Republican incumbent Eric Holcomb leading Democrat Woody Myers just 36-30, with Libertarian Donald Rainwater taking 24%. The Associated Press also recently reported that Indiana conservatives who were furious with Holcomb over his statewide mask mandate were cottoning to Rainwater as an alternative.
WV-Gov: There has been only one other survey released here. In mid-September, Republican Gov. Jim Justice's campaign publicized an internal from Mark Blankenship Enterprises that gave him a stronger 54-27 edge.
House
● AK-AL: The DCCC uses its opening TV spot to argue that Republican Rep. Don Young, who has served as Alaska's sole House member since 1973, is no longer an asset to his constituents. The narrator reminds the audience that Young was fined $60,000 for "ethics violations" and "was forced to step down from his leadership position due to corruption and scandal." She continues, "And Alaska lost $1 billion in transportation funding. Even Republicans say he's not a player anymore."
● AZ-01: National Democrats are continuing to run commercials in a contest that their GOP counterparts have yet to engage in. The newest spot from the DCCC, which began airing ads here a month ago, begins with a narrator asking what Republican Tiffany Shedd thinks about healthcare before a clip plays of Shedd saying, "Well, and here's the thing. You know, I think we could have repealed it immediately." House Majority PAC, meanwhile, reports that it's spending $500,000 to launch its first spot here, which also goes after Shedd on healthcare.
No one has released any polls of the race between Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran and Shedd in this northeastern Arizona seat, which both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump narrowly won. This isn't the first time, though, that national Democrats have spent big to protect O'Halleran even as Republicans have stood by: The DCCC and HMP deployed a total of $1.6 million here last cycle in a contest that O'Halleran ended up winning 54-46.
● IA-01: The DCCC's newest commercial utilizes a clip of Republican Ashley Hinson declaring, "I don't think every American wants health insurance" to argue that she's a threat to Iowans' healthcare.
● MT-AL: Both Democrat Kathleen Williams and Republican Matt Rosendale are out with ads arguing that their opponent doesn't really understand Montana. Williams' narrator never actually mentions that Rosendale is originally from Maryland, and instead argues that Rosendale's record of putting special interests over the needs of the state's people "just doesn't fit Montana." Rosendale's commercial, by contrast, unsubtly declares that the California-born Williams "is Nancy Pelosi: A radical activist from San Francisco."
● NC-08: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund is airing a commercial against Democrat Pat Timmons-Goodson in North Carolina's 8th Congressional District, a seat where the super PAC had not announced that it had any money reserved. There is no word on the size of the buy.
The ad itself is more or less standard fare for Republicans looking to frighten voters these days, but it ends on a particularly ugly note against Timmons-Goodson. The ad's narrator, a woman with a stereotypically white-sounding voice, concludes by saying that Timmons-Goodson, who is Black, will "never keep us safe," with a very notable emphasis on the word "us."
CLF is the first of the big four House groups to run ads here, but Timmons-Goodson is getting some outside support in her bid to unseat Republican Rep. Richard Hudson. On Wednesday, EMILY's List and BlackPAC also announced that they were spending $500,000 on a joint buy to aid Timmons-Goodson that will include radio ads.
This seat, which includes Fayetteville and some of Charlotte's suburbs, favored Trump 53-44 in 2016, so this is usually quite friendly turf for Republicans. Timmons-Goodson, though, recently released a poll from Brilliant Corners that showed Hudson and Trump up just 44-42 and 47-44, respectively. Republicans have yet to respond with their own numbers, but CLF's ad buy could indicate that the super PAC also finds things uncomfortably close for Republicans.
● NJ-03: Democratic Rep. Andy Kim's new commercial features a testimonial from a disabled voter who praises the congressman for securing masks for people who need home care.
● NM-02: Republican Yvette Herrell is running a spot starring former Rep. Harry Teague, a Democrat who was elected to represent southern New Mexico in 2008 but lost re-election two years later. Teague tells the audience he's crossing party lines because "we need a congresswoman who will fight for education, healthcare, law enforcement, and all of our needs."
● TX-10: On Wednesday, the DCCC added Mike Siegel to its Red to Blue List. Siegel is in a rematch with Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, who beat him by a surprisingly small 51-47 margin in a 2018 contest that attracted little outside attention. Their second bout is generating far more attention, and the Texas Tribune reports that the NRCC has begun coordinated ad buys with McCaul on Wednesday, though there's no word on how much the committee is spending.
● TX-23: EMILY's List has announced a "six-figure television program" to aid Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones. The Spanish-language ads (here and here) contrast Ortiz Jones and Republican Tony Gonzales on healthcare.
● WI-03: House Majority PAC announced Wednesday that it was spending $488,000 on an ad buy against Republican Derrick Van Orden, a move that comes about two weeks after the Congressional Leadership Fund said that it was booking $2 million to defeat veteran Democratic Rep. Ron Kind. This southwestern Wisconsin seat swung from 55-44 Obama to 49-45 Trump, though Democrat Tony Evers carried it 50-48 in 2018 as he was unseating Republican Gov. Scott Walker by a similar margin statewide.
HMP's narrator declares, "Derrick Van Orden called the Affordable Care Act a disaster. The plan he supports would allow insurance companies to deny coverage for people with pre-existing conditions." The spot is airing in the La Crosse media market, which is home to about 57% of the 3rd Congressional District's residents.
● Polls:
AK-AL: This is the first survey we’ve seen of this contest since July, when the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, polling on behalf of election enthusiasts on Twitter, found Alyse Galvin ahead by the same 43-41 margin that Alaska Survey Research sees now.
CA-22: The Hill reports that a previously unreleased poll from June showed Republican Rep. Devin Nunes, who is one of Donald Trump’s most prominent toadies in Congress, leading Democrat Phil Arballo 51-42; we haven’t seen any other numbers here. Nunes was accustomed to easy re-election contests until last cycle, when he won a very expensive race 53-47 in a Central Valley seat that Trump carried 52-43.
OH-10: This is also the first poll that’s been publicized of the contest between veteran Republican Rep. Mike Turner and Democrat Desiree Tims. The memo for this survey says that an unreleased July poll found Turner up 50-36. Donald Trump took this district, which includes Dayton, 51-44 four years ago, but respondents favor Biden 52-44.
PA-01: The only other poll we’ve seen in the last month was a mid-September American Viewpoint for the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund that gave Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick a far-stronger 52-36 lead.
Mayoral
● San Diego, CA Mayor: SurveyUSA’s new poll of the all-Democratic mayoral race for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune gives Assemblyman Todd Gloria a tiny 39-38 edge over City Councilwoman Barbara Bry. The firm found Bry up 37-34 four weeks ago, and we haven’t seen any other polls in the intervening time.
Ballot Measures
● AK Ballot: Two polls are out taking a look at Alaska's Measure 2, which would implement the first "top-four" election system in the United States, and they each find the referendum well ahead in next month's election. In late September, the pro-Measure 2 group Alaskans for Better Elections released a survey from Claster Consulting that showed it ahead 59-17. Alaska Survey Research publicized numbers on Tuesday that find Measure 2 winning by a smaller, though still substantial, 51-30 spread.
Measure 2 would require all the candidates for congressional, legislative, and statewide races to face off on one primary ballot, where contenders would have the option to identify themselves with a party label or be listed as "undeclared" or "nonpartisan." The top four vote-getters would advance to the general election, where voters would be able to rank their choices using instant-runoff voting. Measure 2 would also institute instant-runoff voting for the presidential contest, which would make it only the second state in America besides Maine to do this.
If a majority voted for the referendum, it would go into effect at the start of 2022. This system's adoption could be particularly impactful in Alaska since the state's last five U.S. Senate elections and a majority of its gubernatorial elections since statehood have produced a winner with a mere plurality.
Other Races
● MT Auditor: If you thought that a commercial in a state auditor election couldn't possibly be good, think again. Democratic state Rep. Shane Morigeau, who would be the second-ever Native American elected to statewide office in Montana, is running a well-produced spot contrasting his history in the state with Republican Troy Downing's weak ties to Montana.
Morigeau, who is airing the first ad of the race, begins by shooting an arrow at a map of California that lands on San Diego, where Downing is from. Morigeau continues by telling a ranger, "And that's why he couldn't get a hunting license here." The ranger gives Morigeau's own license application an approval stamp, to which the candidate responds, "Wasn't a problem for me."
Morigeau spends the rest of the commercial talking about his service in the legislature working across party lines. Morigeau, who is shown hauling a deer carcass out of a pickup truck, sticking a fence post in the ground, and toasting the audience with a drink, also pledges to "work to protect healthcare with folks with pre-existing conditions, crackdown on short-term junk insurance and investment fraud, so that you can enjoy what really matters."
Longtime Digest readers may also remember the weird story of Downing, who lost the 2018 GOP Senate primary to outgoing Auditor Matt Rosendale. Downing looked like a viable candidate at the beginning of the cycle, but he earned plenty of bad press after he was charged with trying to buy hunting and fishing licenses as an out-of-state resident every year from 2011 to 2016, as well as trying to transfer a license to another person and helping an unqualified applicant get a hunting license. Downing, who had residences in California and Montana, argued in turn that he did indeed meet the residency requirements and unsuccessfully tried to get the charges dismissed.
Downing ended up taking third place in the primary with 19%, while Rosendale won with 34%. The following month, Downing reached a deal with prosecutors where he pleaded guilty to two misdemeanors and forfeited all hunting, fishing, and trapping licenses for 18 months. This didn't end his political career, though: In June, Downing won the primary 50-29 for the nomination to succeed his old opponent Rosendale, who is giving up this post to run for the U.S. House.
Ad Roundup
