The reputation of public polling has taken a serious hit since 2016 and it is particularly unpopular with right wingers who insist it is biased towards the left. They claim conservatives refuse to answer polls because they know they’ll be mocked (despite online polls showing similar results) and an entire industry of right leaning pollsters who account for silent or hidden Trump support has popped up to tell them what they want to hear. Now pollsters like Trafalgar, Gravis, Insider Advantage and their ilk mess with polling aggregators with their BS methodology.
While traditional pollsters have tried to address the failures of 2016 with new methods (like weighting for education), a new alternative has begun to appear: AI predictions. Advanced Symbolics Inc. is a Canadian firm that has developed an AI named “Polly” which was recently the subject of a documentary by TVO (an Ontario public broadcaster). Polly makes it prediction based on social media and was first deployed in Brexit, then the 2016 American election, and the 2019 Canadian and UK elections. It accurately predicted them all.
This year, Polly is projecting a huge Biden win: 357 electoral votes and a 10% popular vote victory. Polly also has projections for each individual state, picking Biden to win North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona.
So even if you don’t trust polls, trust AI.
Monday, Nov 2, 2020 · 1:57:33 PM +00:00 · 3ML
Polly has updated the prediction to 367-171 with Biden now winning Ohio. Polly has North Carolina and Texas trending towards Biden, but Georgia and the Midwest states trending away (though Biden still ahead).