This is it, last round of 2020 public state polling. Toplines: In Iowa, Joe Biden +1 and Theresa Greenfield (D) +3, in Wisconsin, Biden +4, and in Ohio, Trump +1. The details below.
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IOWA, 10/29-11/1, MoE 3.7%
| PRESIDENT |
11/1 |
10/6 |
7/6 |
| DONALD TRUMP (R-INC) |
48 |
47 |
46 |
| JOE BIDEN (D) |
49 |
48 |
46 |
Remarkable consistency, and truly anyone’s game. And wholly at odds with Saturday’s Selzer poll which had dramatic movement toward Donald Trump and Senate Republican incumbent Joni Ernst. You know the one, the poll that had everyone hyperventilating.
Either Selzer is catching a massive shift in vote preference that literally no one else has caught, or … they’re wrong. I like our numbers better. Regular readers know that in today’s polarized political environment, public opinion simply doesn’t shift.
| SENATE |
11/1 |
10/6 |
7/6 |
| Joni Ernst (R-INC) |
47 |
46 |
45 |
| Theresa Greenfield (D) |
50 |
49 |
48 |
Looks like undecideds consistently broke even for each candidate each time we polled. While I like Greenfield’s chances, this is clearly a tight contest.
WISCONSIN, 10/29-11/1, MoE 3.6%
| PRESIDENT |
11/1 |
10/11 |
9/15 |
| DONALD TRUMP (R-INC) |
47 |
45 |
44 |
| JOE BIDEN (D) |
51 |
53 |
51 |
We’re showing a righter race than almost everyone else. The Economist’s aggregate is +8 Biden, and here we are at half that. Still, Biden is over 50%, rendering him immune if the undecideds decide to stick with Trump.
OHIO, 10/29-11/1, MoE 3%
| PRESIDENT |
11/1 |
10/11 |
9/15 |
| DONALD TRUMP (R-INC) |
49 |
50 |
48 |
| JOE BIDEN (D) |
48 |
47 |
45 |
Civiqs saw three-point Trump leads in September and October, and that’s down to one point, with Trump right at that 50% mark. Ohio is within Biden’s grasp, but Trump still has the edge.
Remember, Trump won Ohio by eight and Iowa by 9.4. Neither of those states should be competitive. That’s why no one is pretending that Trump has a viable path to victory, not even his campaign, now fixated on trying to steal the election.
