The battle for the Senate looms almost as large as the race for the White House, and it is large indeed: Of the 35 contests on the ballot on Nov. 3, Daily Kos Elections rates 15 of them as competitive. The emergence of such a gigantic playing field has benefited the Democratic Party, since fully a dozen of these in-play Senate seats are held by Republicans while just three belong to Democrats.
Of course, not every race is equally competitive, and some feature more prominently than others on the various roads Democrats might take back toward a majority. To help guide you through this arena, we’ve put together this state-by-state catalog of all the key Senate races, including the major players, the polling, and the most important developments over the course of the election cycle.
Let’s start with a brief review of what the target is. With the Senate currently seating 47 Democrats (including independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 53 Republicans, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control of the Senate, assuming that Joe Biden also wins, positioning Kamala Harris to break any ties. In theory, we could say that Democrats need to net four seats in the event Donald Trump wins a second term, but the unfortunate reality is that, thanks to the nature of coattails in down-ballot races in swing states, it’s highly unlikely a net gain of four seats would happen in a scenario where Trump is reelected.
The simplest route to a three-seat net gain would simply be to win the Republican-held seats in Arizona, Colorado, and Maine. These are all races that the Democratic candidates are, indeed, on track to win. Unfortunately, however, it’s likely that Democratic incumbent Doug Jones will lose his bid for reelection in deep-red Alabama.
So, instead, the straightest path to a three-seat net gain requires Democrats to also carry North Carolina. This, too, is what the polls suggest will happen. But, again, the overall field is much wider. In fact, Team Blue could win one or more seats out of the large pool of other competitive races, starting with Iowa, Georgia, and Montana, as well as a number of other opportunities that we’ll discuss.
For each summary, we’re including the average of all public polling in every race calculated by our modeler, though note that last-minute surveys could shift these slightly. The description that follows each state name, meanwhile, is Daily Kos Elections’ qualitative rating of each contest’s competitiveness, which takes into account a wide range of other factors beyond just poll data.
ALABAMA (LIKELY REPUBLICAN)
Doug Jones, elected in a 2017 special election against the odious Roy Moore, is the only Democratic incumbent who is likely to lose. With the exception of a recent leaked internal poll from the Jones campaign, his opponent, former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, has led every survey, most often by double digits. While Tuberville seems to have little command of policy or any interest in anything other than professing fealty to Trump, he does clear the minimal bar of not having been banned from his local mall for being a sex pest.
ALASKA (LEAN REPUBLICAN)
This is a race that wasn’t on anyone’s radar at the start of the cycle, but orthopedic surgeon Al Gross (an independent who won the Democratic nomination and has the Democratic Party’s support) has brought it into contention. Gross has raised a ton of money for such an inexpensive state and has bombarded the airwaves with ads that are pitch-perfect for Alaska. He’s aided by running in one of the nation’s most elastic states, meaning it’s more sensitive to changes in the national environment and more willing to split its votes down-ballot. Sullivan, however, is a pretty standard-issue Republican who’s avoided most stumbles.
ARIZONA (LEAN DEMOCRATIC)
Arizona, along with Colorado, is one of two races that are already leaning toward a Democratic pickup. Former astronaut Mark Kelly has led appointed Sen. Martha McSally in almost every survey of this heavily polled race (save for a few Republican internal polls). Kelly, the husband of ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, has run an effective race, while McSally, who lost to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 Senate race, has had trouble deciding whether to embrace Trump or keep him at arm’s length, leaving few people on either side satisfied.
COLORADO (LIKELY DEMOCRATIC)
Republican Sen. Cory Gardner won a surprise victory in 2014 and has only halfheartedly tried to moderate his image in what has become a more solidly blue state since that time. He’s long been the most endangered Republican incumbent this cycle, and his fate was pretty much sealed several weeks ago when major Republicans groups effectively triaged the race by halting their ad spending. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper has run a somewhat lackadaisical campaign here after abandoning a hopeless presidential run, but given Colorado’s blue hue and his high name recognition, it hasn’t mattered.
GEORGIA — Regular election (TOSSUP)
Democrat Jon Ossoff, who came very close in the monumental 2017 special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district, has brought this race into play with another strong campaign and, in the last few weeks, moved into a small lead. He’s helped greatly by Georgia’s elevation to swing state status but also by Perdue’s rustiness as a campaigner, culminating in a racist gaffe involving Kamala Harris’ name several weeks ago.
One huge quirk here, though, is that Georgia has a unique law requiring a runoff in general elections where no one hits the 50% mark. With a Libertarian also on the ballot, that’s exactly what may happen even if Ossoff emerges from Election Day with a plurality, setting us up for a re-do on Jan. 5. If Senate control is still up for grabs at that point, hold on to your butts!
GEORGIA — Special Election (TOSSUP)
- Polling average: Raphael Warnock (D): 41, Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 21, Doug Collins (R): 20, Matt Lieberman (D): 4, Ed Tarver (D): 3
The Georgia special election is a giant all-party primary, with the top two finishers advancing to a runoff in the likely event no one wins a majority on Nov. 3. That runoff will almost certainly feature one Democrat and one Republican, thanks to pastor Raphael Warnock’s surge into first place in recent weeks. It’s unclear whether Warnock will face appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler or Rep. Doug Collins (who is Trump’s personal favorite), as surveys show them neck-and-neck but what few polls we’ve seen of both potential second-round matchups give Warnock the edge.
IOWA (TOSSUP)
While businesswoman Theresa Greenfield came into the race looking like longshot, she’s run a strong campaign and has benefited from the fact that the 2014 GOP wave swept a lot of Republicans into power who, it turned out, aren’t all that talented (see also David Perdue and Thom Tillis). After a deadlocked race for many months, most polls in the closing stretch have given a small edge to Greenfield, although the much-watched Selzer poll gave Republican Sen. Joni Ernst the edge over the weekend.
KANSAS (LEAN REPUBLICAN)
The Kansas race, an open seat because of Pat Roberts’ retirement, wasn’t supposed to be competitive without the disastrously flawed Kris Kobach as the GOP’s nominee. But even after Kobach, who fumbled away the 2018 gubernatorial race to Democrat Laura Kelley, lost the Republican primary to Rep. Roger Marshall, this contest just, well, kept on being competitive! State Sen. Barbara Bollier (a former moderate Republican who joined the Democrats two years ago) is a good fit for the well-educated suburbs of Kansas City that have swung hard against the Republicans in recent years and will be decisive in this race.
KENTUCKY (SAFE REPUBLICAN)
I’m including this race because a lot of people have invested in it, not just emotionally but financially. Democrat Amy McGrath, who narrowly lost an expensive House race in 2018, has been a fundraising powerhouse and has succeeded in keeping Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his money pinned down. Unfortunately, that hasn’t yielded a competitive race in the polls, with McConnell clear favorite in a dark red state that Trump will also win easily.
MAINE (TOSSUP)
State House speaker Sara Gideon has done what many Democrats have tried and failed to do before, which is put the lie to long-time Republican incumbent Susan Collins’ moderate reputation. Of course, it helps that Collins largely did that to herself in the last few years, culminating with Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court. While Gideon has consistently had narrow leads in the polls, one quirk is that in Maine, if no candidate clears 50%, the race will be decided by an instant runoff (as happened in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in 2018). Polls that have explored voters’ second and third choices have also found Gideon winning such a runoff as well.
MICHIGAN (LEAN DEMOCRATIC)
Michigan has long been considered the Republicans’ best option (if not only option) for a pickup after Alabama, due to workhorse Sen. Gary Peters’ relatively low-name recognition and businessman John James coming off a better-than-expected run against Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2018. However, despite heavy spending by both parties, most polls have given Peters an edge in the high single digits, no doubt helped along by Joe Biden coattails as he seems poised to win back the state in convincing manner.
MINNESOTA (LIKELY DEMOCRATIC)
The race in Minnesota, between Democratic Sen. Tina Smith and former Rep. Jason Lewis, has seen some fairly close-looking polls in the last month, though the overall average isn’t much different than Michigan. The main indicator separating this race from Michigan is that the major outside groups (like the DSCC and NRSC) haven’t spent any money or done anything else to signal that this seat could flip.
MISSISSIPPI (SAFE Republican)
On the surface, Mississippi looks potentially interesting, with former Democratic Rep. Mike Espy trailing Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by only a few points in their rematch, especially since Espy has also vastly outraised the incumbent. Unfortunately, that appearance may be misleading, in part due to the paucity of polling. Mississippi is notorious for polarized voting patterns that divide starkly along racial lines, with very few white voters willing to cast ballots for Democrats. Since whites make up a majority of the electorate, that makes it almost impossible for a Democrat to win statewide.
MONTANA (LEAN REPUBLICAN)
When Montana Gov. Steve Bullock got into the race on the Democratic side (after a little-noticed presidential bid), it was probably the biggest recruitment coup of the whole cycle, putting an otherwise unlikely seat into play. However, what sets the state apart from, say, Arizona or Colorado is that Montana’s much redder. Bullock has significantly overperforming Biden’s margins in polls (and is helped out by Montanans’ willingness to split their tickets down ballot), but Republican Sen. Steve Daines benefits from the state’s overall GOP lean. Daines has led a majority of polls here, but Bullock recently squeaked ahead in the polling average.
NORTH CAROLINA (TOSSUP)
In what’s probably the most heavily polled Senate race in the country, Democrat Cal Cunningham has held a remarkably steady lead in the mid-single digits over Republican incumbent Thom Tillis for many months. It looks like the race has gotten a smidge closer in the final weeks, but that may have more to do with previously undecided Republicans getting off the fence more so than blowback from what turned out to be a rather minor-league sex scandal for Cunningham, who’s now running only slightly ahead of Biden instead of outpacing him by larger margins.
SOUTH CAROLINA (LEAN REPUBLICAN)
One of the biggest surprises of the cycle has been South Carolina’s Senate race turning into a very competitive contest, where many pollsters have found a tie or close to it. Democrat Jaime Harrison has a difficult needle to thread here trying to get to 50% in a red state, but he’s tried to peel away right-wing voters from Sen. Lindsey Graham by promoting the candidacy of Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe (who dropped out and endorsed Graham a month ago, but whose name remains on the ballot). Harrison’s record-smashing fundraising haul has also helped him prosecute the case against Graham on the airwaves.
TEXAS (LEAN REPUBLICAN)
Rounding out the list of “reach” states is Texas, where Republican Sen. John Cornyn faces a tough reelect against Democrat MJ Hegar, who narrowly lost a 2018 House bid in Texas’ 31st Congressional District. Hegar’s polling averages have had her a little further back than other races in the “Lean Republican” category, but Texas is fully engaged as a presidential swing state this year, and she may well benefit from Biden coattails. Hegar’s main problem so far has probably been a lack of name recognition (hard to achieve in a state where it’s so expensive to advertise), but she received some much-needed air support from big-spending outside groups late in the game.
Please join us at 6 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections for our liveblog of all of these races and more!