Eighty-six of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers are on the ballot on Nov. 3, and Democrats are well-positioned to make gains in this crucial last election before redistricting begins next year. In fact, they’re on offense almost everywhere and could, on a very good night, pick up 10 chambers or even more. Republicans, meanwhile, have few opportunities on offense and might wind up with no flips at all, as was the case for them in 2018.
In total, 5,876 legislative seats are going before voters, with about 3,800 races contested by both major parties. That means we have a ton of hotly competitive races on tap, though, and many chambers that could change hands. Below we’ll run through the states that are likely to see the most action on election night. Note that all vacancies are assigned to the party that previously controlled those seats.
Potential Flips
Alaska Senate and House
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Senate: Majority caucus: 14 (13 R, 1 D); minority caucus: 6 D (11 seats needed for control)
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House: Majority caucus: 22 (15 D, 6 R, 2 I); minority caucus: 16 R; unaffiliated: 1 R (21 seats needed for control)
While Republicans will likely once again win a majority of seats in Alaska's legislature, both chambers could nevertheless wind up in the hands of bipartisan coalitions of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans. That's how the House has been organized since 2017, and the Senate hosted a similar arrangement from 2007 to 2013.
A split in governing principles between Republican pragmatists and hardliners has given Democrats an opening to form these unusual alliances and curb Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy's agenda. However, if conservatives win enough seats, Republicans could recapture the House, which is the only chamber in the country the GOP has a realistic shot at flipping. Note that Alaska's Senate elections, as is common in many other upper chambers, are "staggered," meaning that only half of all seats are up this year.
Arizona Senate and House
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Senate: 17 R, 13 D (Democrats need 3 to flip)
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House: 31 R, 29 D (Democrats need 2 to flip)
Republicans have held the state government “trifecta” in Arizona continuously since early 2009, meaning they’ve controlled the governorship, the state Senate, and the state House. Democrats, however, have their best shot in many years at breaking the GOP’s lock on power with the state trending blue. Importantly, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema carried 16 legislative districts—a majority—during her successful 2018 bid for Senate, giving her party a roadmap to win back the legislature. (The Senate and House use the same districts, with each electing one senator and two representatives.)
Iowa House
If Democrats can flip the Iowa House, they’ll break up the trifecta that the GOP gained in 2016, allowing them to halt the Republican agenda and protect the state’s tradition of independent redistricting that stretches back decades. Though Iowa veered to the right four years ago, its unexpectedly competitive presidential and U.S. Senate races are helping to put all sorts of races up and down the ballot in play. The state Senate (32 R, 18 D), however, remains firmly in Republican hands, in large part because only half of its seats are up this year, and those tilt to the right.
Michigan House
After terminating the GOP's trifecta when Gretchen Whitmer won the governorship in 2018, Democrats are now looking to recapture the state House for the first time in a decade. An extreme Republican gerrymander poses a serious obstacle—Republicans have won more seats in the legislature despite winning fewer votes in nearly every election this past decade—but Whitmer still managed to carry 56 districts, the exact number Democrats would need for a majority. The Senate, which has been run by Republicans since 1983, is only up in midterm years.
Minnesota Senate
Minnesota's Senate not only offers Democrats one of their top shots at flipping a legislative chamber, the state is also their best hope in the country for creating a new trifecta—something they've enjoyed here for just two years out of the last 30. Democrats’ margin in the state House (77 D, 59 R) appears secure, as both parties have focused the bulk of their efforts on the Senate.
North Carolina Senate and House
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Senate: 29 R, 21 D (Democrats need 5 to flip)
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House: 65 R, 55 D (Democrats need 6 to flip)
A court ordered Republicans in the legislature to redraw their hyper-aggressive gerrymanders last year, but the maps for both the state Senate and the state House still favor the GOP despite North Carolina's swing state status. Democrats do have a chance at flipping one or both chambers, however, and are pursuing the opportunity aggressively. While it's a longshot, if they can take both the Senate and House, they'd create a new Democratic trifecta if Gov. Roy Cooper also wins reelection (as he's favored to do).
Note that if Democrat Yvonne Holley wins the open race for lieutenant governor, Democrats would only need to flip four seats to win the Senate, as she'd be able to break ties in their favor.
Pennsylvania Senate and House
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Senate: Majority caucus: 29 (28 R, 1 I); minority caucus: 21 D (Democrats need 4 to flip)
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House: 110 R, 93 D (Democrats need 9 to flip)
Pennsylvania is another state where legislative Republicans have clung to power thanks to extreme gerrymanders, but Democrats nonetheless have a legitimate chance to flip the state House. The Senate is a longer shot but not out of the realm of possibility, though Democrats are once again hampered by the fact that only half of all seats are going before voters this year. As in North Carolina, flipping both chambers would set up a new trifecta, with Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf at its head.
Texas House
After an enormously successful midterm election that saw them gain a dozen seats, Texas Democrats now need just nine more to win control of the state House for the first time since 2002. Thanks to demographic changes and the ongoing rebellion in once reliably red suburbs, Republicans have found their own gerrymander turning against them: Beto O'Rourke won a bare majority of 76 seats despite losing his 2018 bid for Senate, and things have grown worse for the GOP since.
Both sides have expended massive sums on this crown jewel of legislative chambers due to the power and prestige it offers. If Democrats can win, they'll end the GOP's trifecta and be able to stop Republicans from gerrymandering the U.S. House map in the second-largest state in the nation. The Senate (19 R, 12 D), only half of which is up this year, is set to remain under Republican control.
Making or Breaking Supermajorities
Connecticut Senate and House
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Senate: 22 D, 14 R (Democrats need 2 for supermajority)
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House: 91 D, 60 R (Democrats need 10 for supermajority)
Redistricting plans require two-thirds approval under the Connecticut constitution, so if Democrats can win supermajorities in both chambers, they may be able to gain full control of the mapmaking process next year. (The governor, Ned Lamont, is a Democrat.) Sufficiently large wins look unlikely but can't be ruled out. Even if Democrats do make big gains, however, the text of the constitution is unclear, and the legislature's own research service has concluded that lawmakers may only vote on maps created by an evenly divided bipartisan panel, not plans of their own.
Kansas Senate and House
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Senate: 29 R, 11 D (Democrats need 3 to break supermajority)
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House: 84 R, 41 D (Democrats need 1 to break supermajority)
Kansas Democrats are extremely eager to make gains in the legislature so that they can be certain of upholding Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's vetoes. They would only need to break the GOP's supermajorities in one chamber, though both are targets. If they're successful, they'd be able to prevent Republicans from passing gerrymanders over Kelly's objections next year.
Missouri Senate and House
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Senate: 24 R, 10 D (Democrats need 2 to break supermajority)
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House: 115 R, 48 D (Democrats need 7 to break supermajority)
State Auditor Nicole Galloway is a longshot to unseat Republican Gov. Mike Parson, but if she wins, her fellow Democrats in the legislature would very much like to be able to sustain her vetoes. As in Kansas, they'd only need to bust up the GOP's supermajorities in one chamber. Only half of the seats in the Senate are up this year.
Nebraska Senate
Because Nebraska is home to a unique unicameral (and nominally nonpartisan) legislature, Republicans can be said to control the "bifecta" in the Cornhusker State, and that's not going to change this year. However, if they can win a two-thirds majority, they'd be able to overcome any Democratic filibusters. (Nebraska is one of relatively few states that, like the U.S. Senate, has a powerful filibuster.) Republicans could also eliminate the filibuster with a simple majority, but to date, they've been reluctant to do so. Only half of the Senate's seats are up for election this year.
Nevada Senate
With just one more win, Democrats could hold two-thirds of all seats in the Nevada Senate to go along with their existing supermajority in the Assembly (29 D, 13 R). That would allow them to pass revenue-related measures without any Republican votes and send them to Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak for his signature. Earlier this year, a bill to end special tax breaks for the mining industry failed by one vote in the Senate. Only half of all seats in the Senate go before voters this year.
New York Senate
If New York Democrats, who have long held a supermajority in the Assembly (107 D, 43 R), can win one in the Senate too, they'd be able to override vetoes issued by Gov. Andrew Cuomo. That might seem like a strange goal on paper since Cuomo is a Democrat, but he's notorious for opposing progressive policies. Whether legislative leaders would have the fortitude to cross Cuomo so directly is another question, but if they were to do so, they'd also be able to take charge of redistricting (which is currently run by a bipartisan commission that can only be superseded by a two-thirds vote).
Oregon Senate and House
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Senate: 18 D, 12 R (Democrats need 2 for supermajority)
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House: 38 D, 22 R (Democrats need 2 for supermajority)
The Oregon legislature has an unusual quorum rule that allows a minority of lawmakers to stop all business if they flee the state—something Republicans have done repeatedly in recent years, most notoriously to stop a bill addressing climate change. They'd be able to do the same thing next year to block any new redistricting plans unless Democrats (who hold the trifecta) can win two-thirds supermajorities. Only half of the seats in the Senate are up this year.
Wisconsin Senate and Assembly
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Senate: 19 R, 14 D (Republicans need 3 for supermajority)
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Assembly: 63 R, 36 D (Republicans need 3 for supermajority)
Wisconsin Democrats are fighting to keep Republicans from winning gerrymandered supermajorities in both chambers, which would allow them to override Democratic Gov. Tony Evers' vetoes. Democrats need to hang on in just one chamber to preserve Evers' powers, though of course two would be better. Only half of the Senate's seats are on the ballot this year.
Other Chambers to Watch
The chambers below are unlikely to change hands but are nevertheless worth keeping an eye on.
Florida Senate and House
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Senate: 23 R, 17 D (Democrats need 4 to flip)
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House: 73 R, 47 D (Democrats need 14 to flip)
Florida sits at the far reaches of Democratic pickup possibilities, though if there's any chance at breaking the GOP's trifecta, it's likely in the state House. While the number of seats Democrats have to win to retake the Florida Senate is much smaller than what they'd need for the House, the upper chamber's map is daunting because only half of all seats are up.
Georgia Senate and House
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Senate: 35 R, 21 D (Democrats need 8 to flip)
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House: 105 R, 75 D (Democrats need 16 to flip)
Though the numbers suggest that neither chamber in Georgia is poised to flip, if Democrats really are as ascendant as polling makes it appear in the Atlanta metro area, there are plenty of seats that no one would have thought of as competitive in 2016 that might be there for the taking in 2020.
Montana Senate and House
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Senate: 30 R, 20 D (Democrats need 6 to flip)
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House: 58 R, 42 D (Democrats need 9 to flip)
Democrats could make gains in the legislature, but Republicans are hoping to secure a trifecta by winning the open governorship, which they're favored to do. (Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who is running for Senate, is term-limited.) Only half of all seats are up in the Montana Senate.
New Hampshire Senate and House
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Senate: 14 D, 10 R (Republicans need 3 to flip)
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House: 234 D, 166 R (Republicans need 35 to flip)
While Democrats' majorities in both chambers of the legislature look secure, New Hampshire is one of the most politically volatile states in the nation, and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is on track to win a third two-year term.
New Mexico Senate
Republicans aren't actually in a position to take the New Mexico Senate. Rather, the question is whether Democrats, who already control the trifecta, can retain a large enough majority in the Senate to render a stubborn gang of conservative Democrats irrelevant. Several of these conservatives lost in primaries earlier this year after blocking efforts to protect reproductive rights and voting rights, but at least two remain. The House (46 D, 24 R) doesn't face the same issues.
South Carolina Senate
It's the reach of all reaches, but South Carolina's Senate merits attention thanks to the massive campaign at the top of the ticket being run by Democrat Jaime Harrison. Much as Beto O'Rourke's unprecedented effort helped Texas Democrats flip a dozen GOP-held seats in 2018, Harrison's candidacy could do something similar in the Palmetto State. There are five seats within conceivable range for Democrats, and four of them are in the Charleston suburbs and exurbs, where the party won a state House special in a landslide this summer. The House (79 R, 45 D) is out of reach.