It's 2020 -- Of Course this isn't easy! Wednesday's Good News Roundup UPDATED WITH MORE HOPE X6

GoodNewsRoundup

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Wednesday November 04, 2020 · 4:00 AM PST

2020/11/04 · 04:00

UPDATE #6

Joe Biden has now received more votes for president than any other candidate in U.S. history...https://t.co/mJsATzIzci
— Rex Chapman🏇🏼 (@RexChapman) November 4, 2020

UPDATE #5

At the end of this, Joe Biden will have:

-More votes nationally than any other Presidential candidate in history
-More than 50% of the popular vote
-At *least* two 2016 flips (and more coming)
-A higher margin in WI, PA, and MI than Trump's in 2016
— Rob Flaherty (@Rob_Flaherty) November 4, 2020

UPDATE #4

Yes it sucks that so many Americans voted for Trump but Biden’s final popular vote margin will be much bigger than HRC! THERE ARE MORE OF US

UPDATE 3: MORE GREAT NEWS

Biden’s lead is now currently bigger than Trump’s final 2016 margin in both MI and WI and is projected to grow. Estimates are his PA lead will be bigger as well. If smaller margins were good enough for Trump to collapse the Blue Wall, larger ones certainly OK to rebuild it.
— David Plouffe (@davidplouffe) November 4, 2020

Biden now leads in WI with almost no path for Trump to overtake him in the state.

Biden now leads in MI and most outstanding votes should be be favorable to him.

Biden leads NV with only mail-in votes from 11/3 and on yet to be counted.

Trump is not going to win reelection.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) November 4, 2020

UPDATE 2: NEW GREAT NEWS:

Biden has taken the lead in Michigan, according to the AP
Along with AZ, NV and WI, he now leads in states worth 270 electoral votes--the number needed to winhttps://t.co/8bdQchP5zB
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

We have every reason to be hopeful that when all those early votes are counted — we will win.

Joe Biden will be president.

I’m tired. You are tired. But we keep going. We hold onto faith and we hold onto hope for longer.

I was honored to get to write today’s GNR, but I’m going to need your help today. Share your stories. Share what you know and what you believe and what you hope for in the comments.

Let’s continue to be the community we have grown to be.

I am so proud and so lucky to be in this with you ❤️ ✊ ❤️

UPDATES:

1. Biden up in NV. Most outstanding vote there is mail-in (expected to favor Biden). Those won't be released/counted until Thursday at noon eastern.

2. Biden ahead in WI by about 21k votes. Little outstanding. Biden likely to win there.

3. Biden expected to take the lead in MI (it's now basically tied) as the remaining votes comes in. Outstanding vote overwhelmingly in "blue" areas.

4. Biden currently down in PA by about 700k votes. But, about 1.4 million mail-in ballots will be counted today. Biden expected to net about 78% of those, which would have him win the state by over 100k.

So two things:

1) Biden is well on his way to flipping MI & WI (in addition to AZ & #NE02) and is doing well enough in PA's completed counties to be on track to win there
2) Polls (esp. at district-level) have rarely led us more astray & it's going to take a long time to unpack
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2020

All of that points to a Biden win and a decisive one at that.

This guy is confident:

With AZ, NV, WI all in our column this morning and trending stronger for us, and MI just about to go our way in a matter of hours as absentee votes are counted, we have enough electoral college votes to say with confidence we will win this.
— George Takei (@GeorgeTakei) November 4, 2020

As votes are counted, BIden’s path is widening while Trump’s is narrowing

Just want to leave this here as an historical artifact of the mood right now because if you're following closely, the question is whether Trump can still win? (Yes he can but it's becoming harder.) https://t.co/GzaF0kSYNz pic.twitter.com/PI9JBVjRCw
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

here are some reasons why:

It's really quite simple. Biden's winning absentee ballots 78-21. The PA SOS says there are 1.4 million ballots left to count. If that's true, then Biden will net-800k votes, more than enough to over take the president
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

a new article on this → The Remaining Vote in Pennsylvania Appears to Be Overwhelmingly for Biden

Joe Biden has won absentee ballots counted in Pennsylvania by an overwhelming margin so far, according to data from the Secretary of State early Wednesday. If he carried the remaining absentee ballots by a similar margin, he would win the state.

and MI is looking clearer and better

Another batch of votes just came in from Michigan absentee counts, and Trump’s lead is now down to 39K. He’s toast at this rate. It won’t even be a close match. He’ll lose by several percent.
— Jay Kuo (@nycjayjay) November 4, 2020

He means in our direction since the remaining votes are early votes (fingers crossed)

and this:

New Wayne County ballots will bring Trump lead down to about 1.5 points in Michigan.
With Biden ahead in AZ/NE02/NV/WI, a Michigan lead would be enough for Biden to hold at least a nominal edge in states worth 270 https://t.co/Rz2wWMCAe6
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

and

And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle's analysis of the vote by precinct x method--stipulating that there aren't any errors in the GA county data. There's a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It's enough to make Biden a narrow favorite
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

so lots of reason for hope!

and from the other Nate

Michigan now tied and there's every reason to think the remaining votes will be pretty blue. https://t.co/yYGNcrd0AZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

and

Very few remaining sources of hope for Trump in WI. https://t.co/CTgqYK50af
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

so why did last night take 20 years off all our lives? Because:

.@Nate_Cohn said something similar to this effect earlier, but the main thing about tonight is that people just aren't adjusting *nearly* enough for the partisan split in various categories of votes, i.e. *very* Dem mail ballots and *very* GOP Election Day in-person votes.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

and the Senate race isn’t over yet

450K absentee votes remain uncounted. Gideon is winning 58% of them to Collins 37%. That should be enough for a win. (I hope I'm right.)

That would shift the balance of power to 49/49 with two likely run off elections in GA in Jan.
— Jay Kuo (@nycjayjay) November 4, 2020

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