Here’s a fun statistic: In North Dakota, a staggering 6.8% of the population has tested positive for COVID-19. Not just had the virus, but tested positive. That puts North Dakota as the No. 1 state when it comes to the number of cases by population—and it’s managed that accomplishment despite the fact that when it comes to the rate of testing, North Dakota comes in as No. 30. Still, the state has ramped up tests somewhat this week, bringing its positivity rate down from the mid 30% to 15% range. That may not sound like much, but next door in South Dakota, the rate of positive tests is 52%. In both these states, the rate of testing is nowhere close to really indicating how the virus is spreading wildly across the area.
But focusing too much on locations like North Dakota, or the other hottest hot spots that are popping up throughout the Great Plains and Midwest, may make it sound like some areas of the nation are safe. They’re not. On Friday, the United States once again hit a new record with over 132,500 new cases of COVID-19. That marked three days in a row that the nation ran past another 10k boundary in case reporting, and it did so before any outbreaks that might have resulted from Election Day itself began to weigh on the results.
The coronavirus outbreak in the United States is critical. It is growing exponentially. It is filling hospital beds. It is driving over 1,000 deaths a day. And it is everywhere.
Over 30 states hit new records in the past two weeks as the nation matched to unprecedented highs. It’s not just that the new peak has exceeded past records. It’s also that it shows no sign of stopping. It’s that it’s still accelerating. This is a steeper exponential curve than at previous points in the pandemic, and it shows exactly what happens when everything has been “opened” to the point where a highly contagious disease meets very little resistance.
It’s not as bad as it could be. COVID-19 has an R0 number that is currently estimated to be around 2.5. The curve we’re witnessing at the moment doesn’t match the horror that would result if a disease with that level of transmission and with no native immunity were spreading completely unchecked. That doesn’t mean it’s not extremely bad, or that rapid, firm, nationwide restrictions are not needed to prevent hospitals in multiple states from exceeding capacity and driving fatality rates back to what was seen in the early days of the pandemic.
Unfortunately, we’re not about to get that action from Donald Trump or his team still in the White House. What we are going to get from that team is blatant examples of what happens when you ignore a dangerous disease and sneer at the need to use safety measures. Case in point: Mark Meadows. Donald Trump’s chief of staff, who frequently clashed with reporters over his refusal to don a mask and laughed off concerns about the virus, was reported to have tested positive on Friday. Since the announcement about Meadows, four five more White House staffers have tested positive, along with a member of Trump’s campaign team. And on Saturday morning it was also announced that Rep. Matt Gaetz—previously seen prancing around the House floor in a World War II vintage gas masks to make fun of those with coronavirus concerns, also had COVID-19. Gaetz has since tried to correct this, saying that he has the antibodies, not the disease.
And hey, I was right this many sentences old when AP and NBC finally got off their butts and called Pennsylvania for Joe Biden. Wheeh! Now, back to the disaster in progress.
In January, the nation should finally see some relief as Joe Biden brings in a respect for science that is likely to include a nationwide mask mandate and social distancing guidelines backed up by some teeth—such as cutting off funds to states that don’t do their best to protect their citizens. But three months’ worth of unchecked spread between now and then would turn everything that’s happened so far into a footnote. Pressure has to be applied at both a state and federal level to get some relief. Now. Unfortunately, the best bet for seeing that relief is that governors are starting to hear those calls again from local hospitals whose ICUs are full and whose regular beds are filling.
Vaccines are still coming. Treatments are still coming. But the current rapidly rising curve isn’t going to be slowed by promises that are still months away.
And dammit, I was going to write more about the study showing that areas that watch Fox News have greater rates of both infection and death, about hot spots resulting from Halloween parties that didn’t practice safety, and about the possibility of a fresh wave of cases in the next week after people ignored guidelines on Election Day. But nope. This is it. We may be in the middle of the worst thing that’s happened in our lifetimes, but at the moment we’re also in a moment of incredible relief. Go celebrate.