By Hal Brown
Below is what I posted in a private Facebook group, Duty to Warn, which has over 5000 members where I started a discussion with the message as shown above. This is what I posted on the comment thread.
When I posted the following on Facebook I was thinking that my proposed studies should be conducted by university professors but it could also be done by polling companies using the same designs with in-depth interviews conducted by experts under contract with the Democratic National Committee.
When I use the term Trumpism I mean a fascistic movement whether led by Trump, or another strongman wannabe like him.
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I began with:
I think a study to see why people who voted for Trump in 2016 voted for Biden in 2020. The result would be instructive. My personal interest is how much his previous supporters were influenced by information about his being mentally unstable and as the book title says "a dangerous case." But for political scientists gaining an understanding of why he lost support, and why Biden received six million more votes than he did, would be very important to know for the 2022 elections when members of the Trump cult will still be running both for Congress and in state elections.
The study would involve a statistically significant number of self-indentified 2016 Trump voters who voted for Biden. Structured in-person interviews would be conducted so interviewees could elaborate on their answers. It would have to done by a university faculty member since it would require graduate students to do enough interviews.
Here are two of my responses to commenters:
1) It would be important to see how many Obama voters decided to vote for Trump and then voted for Biden, and to understand the reasons.
2) Answering all of these questions will arm Democrats for defeating both Trump and Trumpism in the future. For the umpteenth time I find myself quoting Sun Tzu: “The Art of War: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” Both aspects of this are important. We have to know what we did right and what we did wrong. We also have to know the enemy inside and out. What motivates the enemy? What worked for them and what didn't? Most important we need to understand in depth the WHY of all of this. Merely knowing what happened isn't enough. We must know why.
After reading 70 comments where some people didn’t think a study was needed because we already knew enough I added this. I wanted to covey why I thought precise data would be beneficial so this was my final reply:
People here are offering speculation and informed guesses. Many of the reasons seem credible. Unfortunately to fight the coming fight most effectively we need actual data. The need for this is pressing because the battles need to be engaged now. There is one good thing that came out of Trump and Trumpism. It is embodied in The Lincoln Project. It is that Democrats and traditional Republicans formed a coalition to stop Trump and the movement he empowered and led.
Addendum:
If Democrats don’t prepare to defeat Trumpism now they face elections in two years where they are in danger of losing their majority in the House of Representatives. Even if Warnock and Ossoff win in Georgia, Democrats could easily lose control of the Senate in 2022. If the GOP keeps control of the Senate wresting control from them in 2022 is critical.
Elections aside, the white nationalistic and fascistic movement given oxygen by Trump isn't going away and it it vitally important that every possible effort be made to understand their strengths and weaknesses (and our own) to best fight it. This is the essence of the Sun Tzu quote from “The Art of War” which is apropos here because truly we are engaged in a war.
How to we understand this enemy? We study them. Using the kind of in-depth survey I propose is just one way to do this. Another important way is to enlist experts on fascism like these to form a working group to consult with the Democratic National Committee. The DNC would be the group that makes sense.
It’s possible that traditional Republicans would form their own group. There are those exemplified by members of The Lincoln Project and a few Republicans like Mitt Romney with his own presidential aspirations who want to assure that America never votes in an autocratic candidate like Trump.
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Sunday, Dec 27, 2020 · 5:01:24 PM +00:00
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HalBrown
Here’s how I answered someone who didn’t think further study was needed:
It isn't called polling as most people thing of polling. It is a type of in-depth study using structured person-to-person interviews to dig into why people answered the way they did. I am trying to get across something some people don't "get" which is the value of research in political science. These experts dig into what people consider to be obvious to ascertain what may not be as obvious as common wisdom suggests. The problem with common wisdom is that while it may be common it may not be true wisdom. We don't know how wise the wisdom is until beliefs are studied.