Good Morning,
As can be expected, the runoff will have a lower turnout than the general election. However, overall turnout is not as important as who is actually showing up for the runoff.
Taking the election data we have, I am going to do a comparison on mail ballot requests in blue and red counties.
Side note, mail ballots have been skewing heavy dem even in the red counties in the general election. However, in this analysis, we’ll assume blue counties will vote blue, and red will vote red in terms of mail votes.
Mail ballot comparison
Couny |
2020 Runoff Mail
Ballot Request
|
2020 Mail GE
Ballot Request
|
Percentage |
2020 winner |
Appling |
1,234 |
2,190 |
56.35% |
T +57% |
Atkinson |
104 |
479 |
21.71% |
T +47 |
Bacon |
562 |
958 |
58.66% |
T+73 |
Baker |
249 |
519 |
47.98% |
T+16 |
Baldwin |
2,575 |
6,979 |
36.9% |
B+1.3 |
Banks |
1,019 |
1,831 |
55.65% |
T+78 |
Barrow
|
6,029 |
10,662 |
56.65% |
T+43 |
Bartow |
7,749 |
13,958 |
55.52% |
T+51 |
Ben Hill |
994 |
1,779 |
55.87% |
T+26 |
Berrien |
900 |
1,743 |
51.64% |
T+67 |
Bibb |
14,971 |
25,847 |
57.92% |
B+24 |
Bleckley |
809 |
1,409 |
57.42% |
T+53 |
Brantley |
655 |
1,367 |
47.92% |
T+81 |
Brooks |
1,135 |
2,158 |
52.59% |
T+21 |
Bryan |
2,941 |
5,576 |
52.74% |
T+35 |
Bulloch |
5,363 |
8,632 |
62.13% |
T+24 |
Burke |
1,083 |
3,179 |
34.07% |
T+1.8 |
Butts |
1,594 |
2,951 |
54.02% |
T+44 |
Calhoun |
515 |
749 |
68.76% |
B+15 |
Camden |
3,711 |
6,998 |
53.03% |
T+31 |
Candler |
499 |
1,043 |
47.84% |
T+42 |
Carrol |
7,707 |
13,017 |
59.21% |
T+39 |
Catoosa |
4,424 |
6,815 |
64.92% |
T+56 |
Charlton |
564 |
965 |
58.45% |
T+51 |
Chatham |
33,359 |
56,016 |
59.55% |
B+19 |
Chattahochee |
234 |
470 |
49.79% |
T+13 |
Chattooga |
1,431 |
2,202 |
64.99% |
T+62 |
Cherokee |
29,232 |
46,908 |
62.32% |
T+39 |
ClarkE |
11,034 |
23,065 |
47.84% |
B+42 |
Clay |
339 |
544 |
62.32% |
B+11 |
Clayton |
22,874 |
45,703 |
50.05% |
B+71 |
Clinch |
279 |
507 |
55.03% |
T+47 |
Cobb |
98,120 |
183,634 |
53.43% |
B+14 |
Coffee |
1,179 |
3,139 |
37.56% |
T+40 |
Colquitt |
1,974 |
4,018 |
49.13% |
T+47 |
Columbia |
12,959 |
23,276 |
55.68% |
T+26 |
Cook |
770 |
1,418 |
54.3% |
T+40 |
Coweta |
13,869 |
23,291 |
59.55% |
T+36 |
Crawford |
830 |
1,562 |
53.14% |
T+46 |
Crisp |
1,345 |
2,432 |
55.3% |
T+25 |
Dade |
895 |
1,525 |
58.69% |
T+65 |
Dawson |
2,479 |
4,163 |
59.55% |
T+68 |
Decatur |
1,890 |
3,347 |
56.47% |
T+17 |
Dekalb |
109,406 |
174,683 |
62.63% |
B+67 |
Dodge |
1,111 |
1,869 |
59.44% |
T+46 |
Dooly |
556 |
1,092 |
50.92% |
T+6 |
Dougherty |
6,376 |
14,796 |
43.09% |
B+40 |
Douglas |
13,937 |
26,796 |
52.01% |
B+25 |
Early |
831 |
1,459 |
56.96% |
T+5 |
Echols |
117 |
240 |
48.75% |
T+76 |
Effingham |
3,685 |
6,729 |
54.76% |
T+50 |
Elbert |
1,585 |
2,709 |
58.51% |
T+36 |
Emmanuel |
1,482 |
2,467 |
60.07% |
T+39 |
Evans |
631 |
1,097 |
57.52% |
T+37 |
Fannin |
3,002 |
4,553 |
65.93% |
T+65 |
Fayette |
13,484 |
25,241 |
53.42% |
T+7 |
Floyd |
6,608 |
11,858 |
55.73% |
T+41 |
Forsyth |
20,795 |
41,237 |
50.43% |
T+33 |
Franklin |
2,076 |
2,733 |
75.96% |
T+69 |
Fulton |
113,752 |
213,223 |
53.35% |
B+46 |
Gilmer |
2,840 |
4,470 |
63.53% |
T+64 |
GLascock |
223 |
383 |
58.22% |
T+80 |
Glynn |
7,994 |
14,118 |
56.62% |
T+23 |
Gordon |
3,540 |
5,406 |
65.48% |
T+63 |
Grady |
1,813 |
3,382 |
53.61% |
T+32 |
Greene |
2,235 |
4,207 |
53.13% |
T+26 |
Gwinnet |
89,087 |
168,015 |
53.02% |
B+18 |
Habersham |
3,600 |
5,685 |
63.32% |
T+64 |
Hall |
16,969 |
28,389 |
59.77% |
T+43 |
Hancock |
1,047 |
1,903 |
55.02% |
B+44 |
HarAlson |
1,789 |
3,021 |
59.22% |
T+74 |
Harris |
3,435 |
5,539 |
62.01% |
T+44 |
Hart |
2,381 |
3,705 |
64.26% |
T+50 |
Heard |
747 |
1,315 |
56.81% |
T+68 |
Henry |
21,726 |
41,287 |
52.62% |
B+20 |
Houston |
16,156 |
26,455 |
61.07% |
T+12 |
Irwin |
467 |
944 |
49.47% |
T+51 |
Jackson |
5,513 |
9,475 |
58.18% |
T+58 |
Jasper |
1,111 |
1,928 |
57.62% |
T+53 |
Jeff Davis |
644 |
1,241 |
51.89% |
T+64 |
Jefferson |
1,356 |
2,459 |
55.14% |
B+7 |
Jenkins |
515 |
1,130 |
45.58% |
T+26 |
Johnson |
522 |
1,070 |
48.79% |
T+40 |
Jones |
2,481 |
3,963 |
62.6% |
T+34 |
Lamar |
1,306 |
2,422 |
53.92% |
T+41 |
Lanier |
456 |
892 |
51.12% |
T+42 |
Laurens |
3,871 |
6,668 |
58.05% |
T+28 |
Lee |
1,947 |
3,480 |
55.95% |
T+45 |
Liberty |
4,149 |
8,045 |
51.57% |
B+24 |
Lincoln |
794 |
1,536 |
51.69% |
T+38 |
Long |
545 |
1,247 |
43.7% |
T+26 |
Lowndes |
7,504 |
13,920 |
53.91% |
T+12 |
Lumpkin |
2,921 |
4,409 |
66.25% |
T+58 |
Macon |
682 |
1,392 |
48.99% |
B+23 |
Madison |
2,216 |
3,793 |
58.42% |
T+53 |
Marion |
563 |
1,018 |
55.3% |
T+27 |
McDufie |
1,538 |
3,344 |
45.99% |
T+19 |
Mcintosh |
1,389 |
2,339 |
59.38% |
T+21 |
Meriwether |
1,949 |
3,392 |
57.46% |
T+21 |
Miller |
230 |
652 |
35.28% |
T+46 |
Mitchell |
1,694 |
2,969 |
57.06% |
T+10 |
Monroe |
1,705 |
3,390 |
50.29% |
T+43 |
Montgomery |
537 |
943 |
56.95% |
T+50 |
Morgan |
1,610 |
2,848 |
56.53% |
T+42 |
Murray |
1,773 |
2,817 |
62.94% |
T+69 |
Muscogee |
18,540 |
32,970 |
56.23% |
B+24 |
Newton |
12,159 |
19,971 |
60.88% |
B+11 |
Oconee |
3,203 |
7,439 |
43.06% |
T+34 |
Ogelthorpe |
1,504 |
2,416 |
62.25% |
T+39 |
Paulding |
14,868 |
26,380 |
56.36% |
T+29 |
Peach |
1,791 |
3,843 |
46.6% |
T+5 |
Pickens |
1,882 |
3,653 |
51.52% |
T+66 |
Pierce |
1,069 |
1,881 |
56.83% |
T+75 |
Pike |
1,255 |
2,185 |
57.44% |
T+71 |
Polk |
2,292 |
3,918 |
58.5% |
T+57 |
Pulaski |
464 |
870 |
53.33% |
T+39 |
Putnam |
2,478 |
4,285 |
57.83% |
T+41 |
Quitman |
131 |
314 |
41.72% |
T+10 |
Rabun |
2,309 |
3,279 |
70.42% |
T+57 |
Randolph |
583 |
947 |
61.56% |
B+9 |
Richmond |
19,026 |
38,481 |
49.44% |
B+37 |
Rockdale |
10,799 |
17,470 |
61.81% |
B+41 |
Schley |
256 |
431 |
59.4% |
T+59 |
Screven |
877 |
1,791 |
48.97% |
T+19 |
Seminole |
483 |
893 |
54.09% |
T+35 |
Spalding |
7,220 |
11,107 |
65% |
T+21 |
Stephens |
1,654 |
2,753 |
60.08% |
T+59 |
Stewart |
334 |
646 |
51.7% |
B+19 |
Sumter |
2,922 |
4,266 |
68.5% |
B+5 |
Talbot |
887 |
1,566 |
56.64% |
B+20 |
Taliaferro |
211 |
377 |
55.97% |
B+22 |
Tattnal |
1,058 |
1,984 |
53.33% |
T+49 |
Taylor |
487 |
1,144 |
42.57% |
T+27 |
Telfair |
909 |
1,297 |
70.08% |
T+31 |
Terrell |
980 |
1,552 |
63.14% |
B+8 |
Thomas |
3,796 |
6,053 |
62.71% |
T+19 |
Tift |
1,966 |
4,101 |
47.94% |
T+34 |
Toombs |
1,480 |
3,181 |
46.53% |
T+45 |
Towns |
1,763 |
2,660 |
66.28% |
T+61 |
Treutlen |
386 |
809 |
47.71% |
T+37 |
Troup |
5,003 |
8,354 |
59.89% |
T+22 |
Turner |
424 |
819 |
51.77% |
T+25 |
Twiggs |
729 |
1,441 |
50.59% |
T+7 |
Union |
2,824 |
4,788 |
58.98% |
T+63 |
Upson |
2,159 |
3,772 |
57.24% |
T+34 |
Walker |
5,004 |
7,535 |
66.41% |
T+59 |
Walton |
7,480 |
14,542 |
51.44% |
T+49 |
Ware |
2,552 |
4,366 |
58.45% |
T+40 |
Warren |
482 |
996 |
48.39% |
B+11 |
Washington |
2,256 |
3,424 |
65.89% |
B+.71 |
Wayne |
1,752 |
2,839 |
61.71% |
T+57 |
Webster |
177 |
457 |
38.73% |
T+8 |
Wheeler |
325 |
557 |
58.35% |
T+39 |
White |
2,575 |
4,091 |
62.94% |
T+66 |
Whitfield |
5,204 |
8,917 |
58.36% |
T+41 |
Wilcox |
463 |
778 |
59.51% |
T+47 |
Wilkes |
976 |
1,721 |
56.71% |
T+13 |
Wilkinson |
534 |
1,207 |
44.24% |
T+12 |
Worth |
1,433 |
2,251 |
63.66% |
T+48 |
|
|
|
|
|
Now what does this all mean?
In comparing the 2020 general to the 2020 runoff:
1. 993,856 ballots have been requested compared to 1,782,580 for the General
2. Percentage wise, that means the runoff is at 55.75% of the requests compared to the General
3. Of the 993,856 ballot requests, 613,969 are from Biden counties, and 379,887 are from Trump counties.
4. In the general, out of the 1,782,580 requests, 1,117,802 came from Biden counties and 664,778 came from trump counties.
5. That means, Biden counties are currently requesting 54.93% of the ballots when compared to the 2020 general and Trump counties are requesting 57.14%.
6. Overall, for the runoff, Biden counties have requested 61.78% of all mail ballots and Trump counties have requested 38.22%. In the General, this % was 62.71% for Biden counties and 37.29% for Trump counties.
7. Raw numbers wise; Democratic counties currently have a 379,887 application edge on GOP counties out of 993K ballot requests. In the General, Democratic counties had a 664,778 edge on GOP counties out of 1,782,580 ballot requests. This makes sense as we are a little over half of the requests of the 2020 general.
One note I will mention is, because mail ballots have been skewing Dem pretty heavily, even the Trump counties aren’t as red as they seem.
I have no idea what in-person early voting will look like or day of voting. Early voting starts on December 14th. Last day to register to vote is December 7th.