This year, our nominee is going to be a progressive. Bernie Sanders is the clear front-runner right now. Even though only 1.7% of delegates have been assigned, Sanders has leads in upcoming states (including delegate-rich California). Things can change! But as of now, things are looking good for him to amass a strong plurality of delegates.
Elizabeth Warren, on the other hand, is off to a woeful start. So why is she the best positioned candidate to give Sanders a run for his money?
This poll says it all:
There’s a reason that Warren has the best head-to-head numbers vis-a-vis the rest of the field: She and Sanders share much of the same base. Check out the most recent national numbers:
Campaign Action
The Sanders-plus-Warren numbers have hovered in the mid-to-high 40s all cycle. They represent the left flank of the party electorate.
There’s sudden urgency for the center-left lane to consolidate. It’s Mike Bloomberg’s big play. It’s Joe Biden’s play. It’s what small liberal college-town Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s play. It’s … well, it’s supposedly Amy Klobuchar’s play, but who the heck knows? Of course, they all think the others should drop out, to their benefit.
But look at those YouGov numbers above again. It wouldn’t matter. That center-left coalition can consolidate all it wants, but if Warren gets knocked out of the race, Sanders will pick up the lion’s share of her support, putting him into the 40s. Then he just needs to pick up a few points here and there from the rest of the field and the undecided, and he’s got half of the vote, game over.
This was the miscalculation from whatever forces decided to kneecap Warren back in October 2019. Those pro-Wall Street forces thought they had gotten rid of a pesky rival. Instead, that support flowed to Sanders, and welcome to today. Oops.
This is a good thing for ideological progressives—heads we win, tails we win. And it’s a real challenge to everyone else panicking about Bernie at this very moment. Do you hasten Sanders’ victory by trying to consolidate around subpar candidates such as Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg? Or do you bite the bullet and go with a candidate who, yes, is a leftist, but one with a track record of achievements and pragmatism, and one who better reflects the core base of the Democratic Party?
It’s literally support Warren or Bernie wins.
P.S. This isn’t an argument about stupid “electability.” I’ve maintained for the past year that this is a bullshit metric. All of our candidates are equally electable.
Sanders isn't guaranteed doom. Biden isn’t a better bet. The end.