The Daily Bucket is a nature refuge.
We amicably discuss animals, weather, climate, soil, plants, waters and note life’s patterns.
We invite you to note what you are seeing around you in your own part of the world, and to share your observations in the comments below.
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February 6, 2020
Pacific Northwest
It doesn’t always rain in the PacificNorthwest but winter is the rainy season and wow have we had a lot in the past month. At my house, we’ve had 8.35” 8.94” (as of this morning Feb 7) since the beginning of January. That may not sound like much, but keep in mind our average annual precip is 20.5”, and we’re only 5 weeks into the year.
Climate change models for the PacificNorthwest indicate this type of weather will become more typical in future. Specifically, according to the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, while our overall precipitation will not change much, summer precip will decrease and winter precip will increase. Every climate model forecasts an overall increase in temperature, between 5° to 10°F by 2100 depending on future emissions. Warmer winters means less mountain snowpack which will have severe consequences for this region. In summer, soil will be drier, vegetation more stressed and wildfires will worsen. In fall, with less snowmelt, stream flows will decline. All seasons will be warmer, so in winter we’ll see less snow and more rain. Moreover,
Winter precipitation extremes are projected to increase. Heavy rainfall events – so- called “Atmospheric River” events – are expected to become more severe. Global models project that the heaviest 24-hour rain events in western Oregon and Washington will intensify by +22%, on average, by the 2080s (2070-2099, relative to 1970-1999). These high intensity events are also projected to occur more frequently: occurring about seven days per year (range: four to nine days per year) by the 2080s in comparison to two days per year historically.
Short term variability will continue but at times like this it’s a peek at what weather will be like more often in future.
It’s been raining steadily 24/7 for the past three days and our last day with no measurable precip was January 20. To say it’s wet is something of an understatement. The ground is completely saturated and there’s standing water all over. Ditches are rushing rivers. Drainfields are experiencing hydraulic overload (stinky). Low spots on roads are flooded. Paths are deep mud.
At least the ducks don’t seem to mind.
Runoff at this neighborhood (photo on right) flows downslope from the left. Usually the runoff fills a pond and then gets channeled under the road into the bay (on the right beyond the buildings). The pond has flooded, and is now at the doors of the houses. There’s some concern about tonight’s and tomorrow’s high tides, which will act as a dam preventing even more runoff from draining into the bay. It’s still raining, as I write this Thursday evening, and forecast to continue into Saturday.
During a merely mizzling yesterday I grabbed the chance to go down to the beach nearest my house. It’s hazardous walking around though, with all the mud. I take a stick for balance and checking depth.
I haven’t been outside much these past few days. Indoors, I’ve been dreaming of summer as I tend my baby tomato and sweet pepper seedlings. Started the seeds January 17, transplanted into 4” pots on Imbolc (Feb 1).
What do ducks dream of, floating in the rain?
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Currently showery and 41° in the PNW islands today.
NWS Special Statement for the region this morning:
What’s up in nature in your area today?
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