It’s enormously consequential that even now, Donald Trump can’t stop lying about the pandemic. Between Mike Pence’s daily sucking up to Trump and the flat out fabrications, it’s hard to trust anything that comes out of the White House. That’s why we’re listening to Tony Fauci and the governors, instead.
As for last night’s election, Joe Biden won and Bernie Sanders has no path to victory. Like so many others before him, it’s time for him to get out of the race. That will allow the states to fix their primaries without the pressure of a presidential run. It will allow Biden to focus on Trump.
Bernie’s supporters won’t be ready to agree until the candidate gives the word. Bernie and his delegates will have their say at the convention. But it’s over; the tank is empty. Land the plane before it crashes. We need to focus on coronavirus and on November, when Bernie voters need to join us. Be kind in the interim. This PSA was brought to you by me.
And before we finish with politics, be aware that Trump has decided to play this as “Trump is the war president, rally around me!” That, along with the xenophobia, is why he keeps calling it the ”Chinese virus”.
It’s a deliberate tactic to rally his base.
Back to the pandemic: this thread is sobering and scary, but keep in mind suppression is where we are moving. School will be closed for the rest of the year, count on it. This is not a drill:
“The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.” Go back and read the thread, the whole thread. And ask yourselves if the WH messaging has prepared us for this.
This MIT Press piece also has a sobering estimate:
Flattening the Coronavirus Curve Is Not Enough
Addressing the growing pandemic requires a new mindset and it requires it quickly.
This is a post about the hard part of the economics of Covid-19. You may think that everything up to now hasn’t been exactly a picnic, but from a hard-nosed perspective, big challenges await. There are two: (1) we need to minimize the short-term (this year’s) cost of the pandemic and (2) we need to minimize the medium-term (after this year’s) cost of the pandemic. Not surprisingly, the two are in conflict with one another. In this post, I will explain that the mentality of everyone is to move to a war footing — especially from governments. We have seen a glimpse of this from China in dealing with (1). But we need to worry about (2) as well.
It’s an important read.
In any case, the above thread is good coverage of the UK report that sobered Trump up for a few hours (he doesn’t drink, but he does go off on fabulist flights of fancy that he needs to periodically abandon).
Amy Fried/Bangor Daily News:
Get coronavirus under control first, but don’t forget about accountability
The 9/11 Commission Report found that anti-terrorism experts who bridged the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations had been very worried about “spectacular” attacks. In late May, 2001 Richard Clarke wrote to National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice and her deputy, Stephen Hadley, “When these attacks occur, as they likely will, we will wonder what more we could have done to stop them.” That report also included recommendations to further America’s security.
Now we are dealing with a global pandemic with a bungled response.
President Donald Trump has spent a good deal of time downplaying the threat. The disease was first detected in the U.S. in January, but less than a month ago, Trump said “the 15 [cases], within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.” He called complaints about how the crisis was being handled “a new hoax,” and accused Democrats of politicizing the situation.
Joe Biden/USA Today (Jan 2020):
Trump is worst possible leader to deal with coronavirus outbreak
President has blithely tweeted that 'it will all work out well.' Yet the steps he has taken have only weakened our capacity to respond.
Trump’s demonstrated failures of judgment and his repeated rejection of science make him the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health challenge.
Axios:
Exclusive poll: Public trusts health agencies more than Trump
I’m citing the above pieces to emphasize the need to listen to the governors of NY, NJ, CT, WA, CA. Adjust to local realities, but do it before it’s too late.
From the Appeal, a look at local actions:
This interactive tool tracks developments of the coronavirus response in local and state governments, with a focus on what is being done — and not done — to protect vulnerable populations. The Appeal: Political Report is devoted to shedding a spotlight on state and local politics.
Explore these developments geographically with this interactive map, or else chronologically below the map.
This flu pandemic guide (A Citizen’s Guide, .pdf) put together in 2007-9 by non-government expert sources is still relevant. Download it and thumb through it for ideas. It’s very complete and might help you hunker down and get a feel for what we are in for.
STATNews:
The new coronavirus can likely remain airborne for some time. That doesn’t mean we’re doomed
The weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic. But “limited” conditions does not mean “no” conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols. “I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”
Best guesstimates are that unless you are doing a procedure on a patient, the airborne part takes a back seat to fomite spread (i.e. touching surfaces).
Good piece, good concept, but public health experts still agree masks are only for those who are ill, particularly during shortages.
By the way, folks, whatever you’re hearing locally, be prepared for schools being closed for the rest of the academic year. Kansas took that step last night.
But if you think •we• screwed up, look at the U.K.
BuzzFeed:
The UK Only Realised "In The Last Few Days" That Its Coronavirus Strategy Would "Likely Result In Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths"
Scientists advising the government say an aggressive new approach adopted to attempt to "suppress" the virus may have to be in place for 18 months.
The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the impact of the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress" the outbreak, according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government.
The report, published by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team on Monday night, found that the strategy previously being pursued by the government — dubbed "mitigation" and involving home isolation of suspect cases and their family members but not including restrictions on wider society — would "likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over".
Well, let’s end of a happy note.
A Voxsoplainer covers why it is good news.
Finally, don’t miss this.