The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● WA-LG: Democratic Lt. Gov. Cyrus Habib unexpectedly announced on Thursday that he would not seek a second term this year and would instead leave politics to become a Jesuit. The governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately in Washington, and Habib's departure could set off a crowded August top-two primary to succeed him in the number-two spot. Recent history, though, shows that this kind of scenario could again spell disaster for Democrats in this blue state if the party isn't careful.
Back in 2016, three Democrats and two Republicans competed in the open seat race for state treasurer, an office that the GOP had last won in 1952. The Democrats outvoted the GOP 52-48, but because the Democratic vote was split three ways, the two Republicans managed to secure both spots in the general election. Democrats need to be especially wary about a repeat of that debacle because there's a possibility that Gov. Jay Inslee could end up resigning to join a Democratic presidential administration, which would make whoever is elected lieutenant governor this fall the state's new chief executive.
Campaign Action
Habib's decision to leave office also ends a high-profile and promising political career. Habib, whose parents emigrated to the United States from Iran, successfully ran for the state House in 2012, a win that made him one of the first two Iranian Americans to be elected in a state legislature. (The other was Adrin Nazarian, who was elected the same day to the California Assembly.) Habib, who lost his sight as a child, was also the first blind person elected to the state legislature in 50 years.
Habib ran two years later to succeed retiring state Sen. Rodney Tom, who was one of the two renegade Democrats who gave the GOP minority control of the upper house. Habib decisively won and soon became Democratic whip, though Democrats wouldn't regain control of the chamber for another three years.
Habib, who attracted national attention even before he won his seat in the state Senate, went on to prevail in a crowded 2016 race to succeed longtime Lt. Gov. Brad Owen. That victory made Habib the first Iranian American ever elected to statewide office anywhere, as well as the state's first blind lieutenant governor. The Senate soon installed several tools, including a Braille keyboard, that made it easier for Habib to preside over the chamber.
P.S. Habib's decision to leave public life to join the Jesuits comes 30 years after Pope John Paul II forbade Catholic priests from holding elected office. That directive led Rep. Robert Drinan, a Massachusetts Democrat and a Jesuit priest, to end his 1980 re-election campaign, while Wisconsin Democrat Robert Cornell also dropped his bid to regain the House seat he'd lost two years before. Drinan and Cornell were and remain the only two Catholic priests to ever serve as voting members of Congress.
Election Changes
Please bookmark our 2020 calendar, which we will continually update as any changes to election dates are finalized.
● CA-25: Local election officials are discussing the possibility of conducting the May 12 runoff for California's vacant 25th Congressional District entirely by mail, and according to the San Francisco Chronicle, both Democrat Christy Smith and Republican Mike Garcia are supportive. The paper adds that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom would have to sign off on such a change but says, "In the past, that approval has been nearly automatic." With the option to permanently receive an absentee ballot at home in every election, voting by mail has grown increasingly popular in California in recent years, with about two-thirds of all ballots now cast that way.
● Connecticut: Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont has moved Connecticut's presidential primary from April 28 to June 2. The state's primaries for downballot office are not until Aug. 11. Democratic Secretary of State Denise Merrill, who has previously recommended the state waive its excuse requirement for voting absentee, says that officials are still "working on" the issue.
● Delaware: Election officials in Delaware are saying that the state will proceed as planned with its April 28 primary. However, Delaware's excuse requirement to vote absentee has not yet been waived.
● Idaho: The Idaho Democratic Party has asked Republican Gov. Brad Little and Republican Secretary of State Lawerence Denney to conduct the state's May 19 downballot primaries entirely by mail, but Denney's office says that state law prohibits them from doing so. Denney is, however, encouraging voters to cast absentee ballots, which any voter can request without an excuse.
● Indiana: The chairs of Indiana's Democratic and Republican parties have jointly asked the state's Election Commission to waive the requirement that voters have an excuse in order to request an absentee ballot. Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb has said he also supports the move, and the commission's chair says it's under consideration. In addition, Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett, a Democrat, has said that his office will mail an absentee ballot to every registered voter in the city, which is the largest in the state.
● Kentucky: Kentucky has already moved its presidential and downballot primaries from May 19 to June 23, but Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams says he is weighing whether to move to an all-mail election, though he considers the idea "a last resort." Whether or not Adams pursues this option, Kentucky still requires voters to provide an excuse to vote absentee and has yet to waive it.
● Montana: Republican Secretary of State Corey Stapleton says the state is considering a delay to its June 2 presidential and downballot primaries but adds that he is taking a "deliberate pause" before moving forward and plans to research the matter over "the next week or so." Stapleton is running in the GOP primary for Montana's lone congressional district.
● Nebraska: Nebraska officials say they have no plans at this time to delay their May 12 primary for the presidential race and downballot offices, though like election administrators everywhere else, they are encouraging voters to request absentee ballots. An excuse is not needed to vote absentee in Nebraska, and a handful of rural counties already vote entirely by mail.
● New Jersey: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy has postponed a variety of special elections and school board races that were set to take place on April 21 and will instead consolidate them with the state's May 12 municipal elections, all of which will be carried out entirely by mail.
● Oklahoma: Oklahoma's top elections official is allowing local governments to postpone local elections that were set for April 7 to a later date. Regular elections may be consolidated with the state's June 30 primary for downballot offices, while special elections can be rescheduled "for any election date allowed by law," according to the state elections board.
Senate
● CO-Sen: The conservative group Unite for Colorado recently launched a $550,000 ad buy against former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper, and we now have a copy of its commercial. The narrator declares that Hickenlooper “is under investigation by Colorado’s independent ethics commission for accepting travel on private jets.” The spot then shows a reporter saying that Hickenlooper “is getting a $500 an hour taxpayer funded lawyer … and that money is coming from a post-9/11 economic recovery fund.”
The state Independent Ethics Commission is currently looking into whether Hickenlooper violated the state’s gift ban by accepting free travel during the final year of his governorship. The investigation began after a complaint was filed by a group run by a former GOP state House speaker, and Hickenlooper’s campaign has denounced it as a partisan attack “filed by a dark money Republican group.”
The former governor’s team has argued that some of these flights were for official state business, and that others were paid for by Hickenlooper himself. They’ve also said that other trips were “as is permitted by law, personal friends absorbed a limited universe of other such costs.” The Independent Ethics Commission was to hold a hearing in late March, but it was pushed to April 28 due to the coronavirus.
The Denver Post also wrote back in January that Hickenlooper’s legal defense is being paid for using what remains of the state’s share of federal funds given out in 2003 to help states recover from the 2001 recession. The paper added, “For the past dozen years, the fund has been treated as a highly discretionary tool in the budgetary tool belts of Colorado’s governors, granting them wide flexibility over how its money was spent.”
Hickenlooper’s allies at Senate Majority PAC also recently went up with a commercial defending him and going after GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. The narrator says that the incumbent’s “special interest allies are attacking John Hickenlooper with smears called ‘politically motivated lies.’ The truth is this has nothing to do with 9/11.” The ad then features a clip of Donald Trump declaring, “You’re gonna help us get Cory Gardner across that line because he’s been with us 100%.”
● MT-Sen, MT-AL: The progressive group End Citizens United is out with a survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling that shows its endorsed candidates tied with Republicans in both congressional contests. Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock and GOP incumbent Steve Daines each take 47% in the Senate race, while 2018 House Democratic nominee Kathleen Williams ties GOP state Auditor Matt Rosendale 45-45 for the state's open House seat. Williams and Rosendale are each favored in their June primaries, while Bullock and Daines have no serious intra-party opposition.
It's going to be difficult for Bullock to unseat Daines in this red state, but the new Libertarian Party nominee could make the governor's task a little easier. Lewis and Clark County Commission Chair Susan Good Geise led the state Republican Party in the 1990s, so she could end up taking more votes from Daines than from Bullock.
Libertarian Party leaders chose Geise as their nominee after the party's only candidate, Eric Fulton, dropped out on the last day of filing. Geise suggested that Fulton might have been working with the GOP to make sure that the Libertarians couldn't field a candidate, though Fulton argued he decided to quit once Bullock got in.
Indeed, Bullock wouldn't be the first Democratic Senate candidate to benefit from the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot. In 2012, a group backing Democratic Sen. Jon Tester spent heavily on ads encouraging voters to support "[t]he Real Conservative," Libertarian Dan Cox. Tester ended up beating Republican Denny Rehberg 49-45, while the balance went to Cox.
Conservatives have hoped that the Green Party could end up hurting Democrats the same way, but it hasn't worked out for them so far. In 2018, an unknown person hired signature gatherers to get Green candidates, including a former state GOP operative, on the ballot, but a judge removed them for lack of valid signatures.
This February, Rosendale's allies at the anti-tax Club for Growth also filed paperwork to get a Green candidate on the ballot, but they quickly abandoned the effort. For their part, the state Green Party put out a statement that decried how "Republican and conservative efforts to qualify the Green Party" could "very well lead to a number of 'FALSE' candidates running as Green for US House and Senate races." However, Green candidates did end up filing for House and Senate, as well as for governor.
House
● Colorado: Tuesday was the deadline to file signatures to appear on Colorado's June 30 primary ballot, but it will be a while before we have a list of contenders. That's because the state allows candidates to reach the ballot either by turning in petitions or by competing at their party conventions, a process we explain here. The secretary of state also needs to verify any petition signatures, which can often take some time.
Both major parties' state conventions, also known as party assemblies, are currently scheduled for April 18, while congressional district conventions are set for March and April (the Republican schedule is here, while the Democratic list of dates is here.) State lawmakers recently passed a law that allows these gatherings to take place online, but it's not clear yet if the schedule will end up changing for any of these events.
● FL-19: Businessman Ford O'Connell announced this week that he was dropping out of the GOP primary for this open seat.
● IA-01: The NRCC is out with an early March survey from Public Opinion Strategies that shows Democratic incumbent Abby Finkenauer narrowly leading Republican state Rep. Ashley Hinson 45-44. The only other poll we've seen of this contest was a mid-January survey from another GOP firm, Harper Polling, that had Finkenauer up 44-40.
● NM-03: Over the weekend, former CIA agent Valerie Plame released a mid-February poll from ALG Research that showed her ahead in the June Democratic primary for this open seat with 21% of the vote. Attorney Teresa Leger Fernandez, who won the party convention after this poll was taken, was in second with 11%, while First Judicial District Attorney Marco Serna took third place with 7%.
Election Result Recaps
● San Bernardino County, CA Board of Supervisors: GOP Rep. Paul Cook announced last year that he would retire from his safely red House seat in order to run for the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors, and that decision seems to have worked out quite well for him. Most votes have been counted from the March 3 nonpartisan primary and Cook currently is taking 65%, which is well above the majority he needed to win outright. Cook's term on the Board begins Dec. 7, about a month before his congressional term expires, so he'll presumably be resigning from the House early.
While it may seem strange that Cook decided to give up his seat in Congress run for local office, this wouldn't really be a step down for him. San Bernardino County supervisors earn a salary comparable to U.S. House members, and they also enjoy a much shorter commute. Supervisors are limited to four four-year terms, though that may not be a drawback for Cook, who will be 77 on Election Day.
And unlike in the House, Republicans also still hold the majority on the board that governs this county of 2.17 million people, and they're going to maintain it for at least a few more years. Another Republican, appointed incumbent Dawn Rowe, also won outright earlier this month, and because Republicans control the two seats that weren't up this year, Team Red is guaranteed to hold at least four of the five districts. Control of that fifth seat will be decided in the general election between Rialto Councilman Joe Baca Jr., who was elected to one term in the state Assembly as a Democrat in 2004, and Republican Fontana Councilman Jesse Armendarez.
● Orange County, CA Board of Supervisors: Almost all the votes are counted from the March 3 nonpartisan primary, and Republicans have kept control of the key seat they needed to maintain a majority on the Orange County Board of Supervisors. As of Wednesday evening, Republican incumbent Don Wagner leads Democrat Ashleigh Aitken 52-48, a margin of over 7,000 votes. Election officials reported that there were less than 1,100 ballots left to tabulate countywide, so Wagner has won a four-term outright.
However, Democrats do at least have a chance to score a pickup this fall that would put them within striking distance of taking control of the Board of Supervisors in 2022 for the first time in living memory. Republican incumbent Andrew Do took just 42% of the vote in the primary, and he'll take on Democratic Westminster Councilmember Sergio Contreras in November: Contreras and two other Democrats took a combined 58% of the vote, while Do was the one Republican on the ballot. If Do loses, Republicans would have just a 3-2 majority going into the 2022 cycle.
