So delicious.
|
Joe Biden |
Donald Trump |
| March 21-24 |
49 |
40 |
| February 2020 |
49 |
41 |
| January 2020 |
50 |
41 |
| October 2019 |
51 |
39 |
Some people are freaking out about Donald Trump’s slight uptick in approvals from the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. That slight rally-around-the-flag effect, much smaller than that of other world leaders, won’t just fade as the crisis drags on, with the US suffering worse effects because of its incompetent leadership, but even that slight uptick isn’t enough to help his standing versus Joe Biden. And the numbers get even better for Biden when vice-presidential potentials get thrown in the mix—especially Elizabeth Warren.
First of all, about that Trump “bump”:
Compared to other world leaders, it’s barely a blip. We definitely picked it up at Civiqs:
That’s a net +3 gain, which is less than what Gallup and other pollsters have seen, but we’re also a lot less volatile than other pollsters—public opinion, especially about someone as well-known as a president in these polarized times—simply doesn’t change that much.
That +3 comes mostly from independents, as you might imagine. going from 43-53 approval-disapproval, to 46-50. Republicans and Democrats are locked in “love” and “hate” mode, respectively, not budging an inch.
But like Fox News, we don’t find that his election numbers are any different:
In fact, we’re a little kinder to Trump than Fox News is—giving Trump 43% while Fox News gives him just 40%. So what’s happening with those independents, that are slightly more favorable toward Trump?
That’s a big, fat, no change.
And don’t look now, but the bump among Independents on the coronavirus response is already fading, and fading hard:
Things are fluid on public opinion in regards to the coronavirus, but they’r not in regards to Trump’s reelection. Whether you’re looking at Fox News polling, or our Civiqs data, fact is, Trump is in deep electoral trouble.
BUT. Fox News had an extra treat on its hands:
|
Dem Ticket |
Trump-Pence |
| Biden-Harris |
50 |
42 |
| Biden-Klobuchar |
50 |
42 |
| Biden-Warren |
52 |
42 |
Yup, when paired with three of the most likely vice-presidential possibilities, Biden performed best against Trump when picking Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. (I’ve written about picking both Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Warren.)
It makes sense—she would be a unifying force for the party, not just boosting his numbers against Trump, but also sparing the party additional ideological convulsions at the convention (or whatever passes for one in this Age of Covid). And two points may not sound like much, but we don’t have a national primary, and doing particularly well in California and much better in Texas doesn't help us win the states that will decide the election: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Every point will matter.
Best part of it? You know Donald Trump was watching when THIS flashed on the screen:
That might even explain his two-day Twitter explosion. Losing to Biden has to kill him, but losing even harder to Biden and Warren is Trump’s worst nightmare, period.
