Years before the 2008 financial crisis, Elizabeth Warren was sounding the alarm bells on a vulnerable economy that would indeed come back to haunt Americans. The trends of "shady subprime lending, rising household debt, a mortgage market where lenders didn’t bear the risk of their loans—set the stage for the 2008 crisis," Sen. Warren wrote in a Medium post last July in which she warned again that the economy was cruising toward yet another disaster.
“I see a manufacturing sector in recession. I see a precarious economy that is built on debt—both household debt and corporate debt—and that is vulnerable to shocks. And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble,” Warren said. "71 million American adults—more than 30% of the adults in the country—already have debts in collection," she noted.
Warren pointed out that consumers were getting squeezed by "a generation of stagnant wages" and the rising costs of basic goods and services. So in order to boost their buying power, American households had taken on increased debt at historic levels in the form of student loans, credit card debt, auto loans.
On the business side of the equation, "systemic risk" was pulsating through the economy in the form of corporate debt. “Leveraged lending—lending to companies that are already seriously in debt—has jumped by 40% since Trump took office," Warren wrote. Practically speaking, this leveraged debt posed a similar risk to the predatory lending to consumers that helped tank the economy last decade. Just like the pre-2008 subprime mortgages, the new corporate loans are "poorly-underwritten loans with minimal protections that are then packaged and sold to investors."
In addition, America's manufacturing sector was in recession for all of 2019 continuing into 2020. Much of that downturn can be directly linked to Trump's trade wars, and now the coronavirus threatens to exacerbate the problem. As Warren noted in her post last year, "For the first time ever, the average hourly wage for manufacturing workers has dropped below the national average."
Along with her warning, Warren also advanced proposals to help shore up the ailing economy by reducing household debt partly by canceling some debt and increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour, enacting regulatory measures to reduce heavily leveraged corporate lending, and strengthening manufacturing by investing trillions into new environmental research, production, and exports.
"Warning lights are flashing. Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high—and growing," Warren said. "Congress and regulators should act immediately to tamp down these threats before it’s too late."
No one could have predicted the rise of a global pandemic, but the vulnerabilities of the U.S. economy were there for anyone who cared to see them and take action. The downturn Warren anticipated may well be upon us now, but the White House and GOP-led Senate did nothing to blunt its impact in advance. So here we are.