On March 2, the United States reached 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Three weeks later, the country had 34,000 cases, over 400 deaths, and was rocketing toward a massive, uncontrolled epidemic that has, so far, taken the lives of over 16,000 Americans. But three weeks after New Zealand hit 100 cases of COVID-19, there are only 1,200 cases and just one single death attributed to the disease. More than that, New Zealand has already turned its very short curve, with a steady decrease in cases over the last week.
This isn’t simply a matter of population. With far less than 1% of residents infected, the novel coronavirus isn’t close to reaching its limits anywhere, and nations of a similar size have thousands more cases and hundreds of more deaths. It’s not even a factor of density, with nearly half of New Zealand’s population found in a single city. The difference is one of resolve, insight, and competence. The difference is leadership.
What did it take to achieve a result that every other nation on the globe can envy? New Zealand has no magic bullet. Citizens there are no more immune than anywhere else. They didn’t blanket the country with some drug favored by local leadership. Instead, as CNN reports, they did what everyone else has done—lock down, isolate, and test. They simply did it better.
It’s just 19 days since New Zealand passed that point of having 100 cases, but it’s been almost 30 days since a tight nationwide lockdown was put in place. Those 1,200 confirmed cases have been surrounded by 55,000 tests. That not only means that the test rate in New Zealand has been just 2% positives, its rate of testing vs. population is greater than that in South Korea, nearly double that of the United States, and three times the rate of testing in the U.K.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern looked at what had worked in China, in South Korea, and elsewhere—and what had definitely not worked in the U.S. and U.K.—in laying out a program based on tough, coordinated federal action, sound science, and a dedicated program of testing and isolation that’s not designed to “flatten the curve.” It’s designed to completely eliminate COVID-19 in New Zealand.
That’s why, after a month of complete lockdown, days of falling statistics, and an active case count down to just 900 since recoveries are now running ahead of new cases, New Zealand is announcing that it is … halfway. Rather than talking about re-opening the nation or relaxing the social distancing measures, Prime Minister Ardern is tightening the restrictions, adding more testing, and telling New Zealanders to expect another month during which every last case of the disease will be identified, isolated, and eliminated.
It’s an encouraging vision of a government that works for its people, not its investment class. And of the kind of leadership that might have been displayed elsewhere. The broad, nationally coordinated testing program in New Zealand is not depending on identifying just those who are hospitalized, or even those displaying strong symptoms. As a result, it’s catching and isolating cases that would have been missed elsewhere and isolating individuals who otherwise might have been the most significant vectors in spreading the disease.
On Friday, as the United States hits a half million cases and 17,000 dead, it’s good to know that somewhere, someone handled this well. And infuriating to think of how badly it was managed by Donald Trump.
When this is over, Jacinda Ardern won’t have to stand in front of her people and tell them she’s done a “good job.” They’ll tell her.
