Models and testing and stories, oh my.
Vox:
Why it’s so hard to see into the future of Covid-19
The most difficult thing for an epidemiological model to predict: human behavior.
In this piece, I’m going to try to explain the utility of coronavirus models and how to think about them when you see them reported in the news. I’ll also explain a big idea to make these models work better in the future.
But before that, I think it’s key to stress what we don’t need them for. We don’t need them to know that we’re in a very, very dangerous situation.
“What’s very important is not the details of the model, it’s that this is a virus that can crush health care,” says Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist who studies infectious diseases at Harvard. “That’s not a model result, that’s an observation. We know it because of Wuhan, we know it because of Italy, because of Spain, we know it because, now, of New York.“
Fact is, people are getting ill, they are hurting, they are dying. And yes, they are going to hold this WH responsible. And that’s especially true as the WH actively urges noncompliance with health expert advice.
Charlie Sykes/Bulwark:
The Faucian Bargain
Anthony Fauci has played his hand perfectly. But the game isn't over.
Amid the uncertainty, one thing seems quite clear: It would all be much worse if not for Anthony Fauci.
However briefly, Fauci was able to get Donald Trump to listen to him and to recognize the severity of the pandemic. Even as Trump was openly musing about reopening the economy by Easter Sunday, Fauci and other experts managed to catch Trump’s attention long enough to explain the deadly implications of that move.
Maybe they showed him pictures. Or charts. Maybe it was the estimate of 2.2 million American deaths if the country didn’t take drastic measures. But somehow they broke through the carapace of his narcissism and alternative reality to get him to tune out the truthers, cranks, and Hannitys long enough to declare a national emergency and back off plans to prematurely reopen the country.
It’s always a risky business to delve too deeply into the mind of Donald Trump, but somehow Fauci got him to listen and, for a few news cycles, change his tone.
Of course this didn’t last, but it’s worth pausing for a moment to consider the Faucian Bargain that was struck.
ABC:
More than half of Americans wear masks as coronavirus' new normal takes hold: POLL
An overwhelming majority of Americans remain concerned about the virus.
More than half of Americans who went out in public in the last week say they've worn a face mask, as an overwhelming majority of Americans remain concerned over the reach of the novel coronavirus – and less are optimistic about the fight against and ultimate impact of the outbreak - according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday.
After conflicting guidance over the last several weeks about whether it is necessary to wear some sort of face covering as a prophylactic measure, 55% of Americans who left their home in the last week said they wore a face mask or face covering, while 45% said they did not.
Nancy LeTourneau/Washington Monthly:
A Biden Presidency Would Not Be a Return to the Status Quo
He is running on one of the most progressive platforms we’ve ever seen from a presidential candidate.
But progressives are wrong to suggest that a Biden presidency would be nothing more than a return to the status quo of the Obama years. His platform currently includes the following:
- Increase taxes on the wealthy. The Tax Policy Center calculated that Biden’s plan would raise $4 trillion over a decade—one of the largest wealth transfers in American history.
- Subsidies and Medicaid funding, along with a public option, in order to achieve universal health care.
- A combination of $17 trillion in clean energy investment and tighter regulations to bring emissions to zero by 2050.
- A combined $2 trillion in new spending on early education, post-secondary education, and housing.
- A $1.3 trillion infrastructure plan.
- A $15 minimum wage.
- Closure of the gun show loophole and a ban on the sale of assault weapons.
- Comprehensive immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
- A comprehensive program for criminal justice reform.
- A constitutional amendment to eliminate private dollars from our federal elections.
Just a few days ago, Biden signed on to support Senator Elizabeth Warren’s bankruptcy plan.
Thread:
There are some locales where the serology suggests 10-15%. Epidemiologists estimated ~10% in CT. We shall see as new data comes forward.
WaPo:
Coronavirus unlikely to significantly diminish with warm weather, National Academies of Sciences panel finds
The report, published by about a dozen members of the Academies’ Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, finds laboratory studies of how the coronavirus varies in its transmissibility based on temperature and humidity are not yet conclusive, but more evidence will be available in the coming weeks.
Jennifer Rubin/WaPo:
What if facts matter?
With Trump’s approval numbers receding to pre-pandemic levels and Biden establishing a lead in early polling (5.9 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average), Trump is in unfamiliar territory. In the past, media saturation, out-and-out lying and right-wing media propaganda seemed to get him through the immediate news cycle. Now, his media blather is white noise in the background. In the foreground is a vivid and terrifying pandemic he did not prepare for and resists using his full authority to combat. It may have taken a pandemic to drive home the message to Trumpian Republicans: Facts matter.