The GOP firm OH Predictive Insights’ newest survey finds Democrat Mark Kelly leading appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSally by a wide 51-42 margin, which is very similar to the 52-43 edge Joe Biden posts over Donald Trump in this sample. The pollster, which is not working for any candidate or group involved in this contest, found Kelly ahead by a 49-42 margin last month.
Every single poll we’ve seen this year, with the exception of one January McSally internal, has found Kelly in the lead, but there’s little consensus just how far he’s ahead. In March, a Marist poll for NBC had Kelly up just 48-45, while a Latino Decisions survey for Arizona State University and Univision had the Democrat dominating 48-36. Monmouth and the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling fell between those two ranges with surveys showing Kelly up 50-44 and 47-42, respectively.
One other constant in this race has been Kelly’s dominant fundraising. Kelly outraised McSally $11 million to $6.3 million during the first three months of the year, and he ended March with a large $19.7 million to $10.2 million cash-on-hand edge. The good news for McSally is that her August primary foe, businessman Daniel McCarthy, had a mere $12,000 to spend.
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