The youth vote may not have come out in force for Bernie Sanders during primary season, but the ones who did vote did so for Bernie Sanders at massive rates. For example, in the California Democratic primary, 68% voted for Sanders, compared to 6% for Joe Biden. Overall, Sanders got just 34% of the vote. In Texas, 62% voted for Sanders, while just 12% did so for Biden. In total 30% voted for Sanders. In Michigan, which Biden won handily 53-36, Sanders won the 18-29 vote by a whopping 74-19 margin.
As a result of lingering anger, resentment, or just general don’t-give-a-damn apathy, Biden’s overall numbers are lower than they could be if he had full support from liberal young voters.
We can see that dynamic clearly in our own Civiqs reelect numbers for impeached president Donald Trump.
Twelve percent of 18-34 respondents say they’ll vote for “other party” or are unsure. That number is 9% for the 35-49 age bracket, 5% for 50-64, and 4% for the over-65 set. Once you consider that older voters are more likely to go libertarian or some Tea Party outfits like the Independence or Constitution Party than young voters, you can see how this is disproportionately affecting the Democratic ticket.
We saw this trend in 2016 when young voters refused to fall in line for a major party candidate at much higher rates than other age groups:
|
Other/No answer |
18-29 |
9% |
30-44 |
8 |
45-64 |
4 |
65+ |
3 |
Of course, “no answer” doesn’t mean “other.” But in an election where every single vote matters, even losing 1-2 points from young voters to some bullshit irrelevant third party is essentially a vote for Trump and a continuation of his ruinous regime.
But we don’t have to guess at how young voters view Joe Biden. We are tracking this directly at Civiqs, including 50-state numbers. Here is young Democratic approval ratings for Joe Biden:
Democrats, by age
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure |
Net positive |
18-34 |
49 |
35 |
16 |
+14 |
35-49 |
70 |
18 |
12 |
+52 |
50-64 |
82 |
10 |
8 |
+72 |
65+ |
85 |
8 |
7 |
+77 |
Holy crap, that’s brutal. Remember, that’s among Democrats. Among independents, it’s even worse:
Independents, by age
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure |
Net positive |
18-34 |
22 |
64 |
14 |
-42 |
35-49 |
33 |
55 |
12 |
-22 |
50-64 |
37 |
53 |
9 |
-16 |
65+ |
38 |
54 |
8 |
-16 |
The younger the registered voter, the more hate he or she has for Biden. (Note that when it comes to age, there is no gender gap between young men and women. Their dislike runs at the same rates.)
Of course, just because someone dislikes a candidate doesn’t mean she or he won’t vote for that person. Trump was fairly universally disliked in 2016, but he earned votes anyway. Hillary Clinton was even more disliked. This election will be less about Biden’s popularity and more of a referendum on Trump and his “governance.” Reelection campaigns almost always are.
But the less a candidate is liked, the less likely those voters will actually go through the motions of voting, much less do the kind of electioneering that would maximize that vote.
A cynic might say “those young people don’t vote anyway, they sure didn’t in the primary!” But when the election is currently deadlocked 50-50 in just seven key states, every single vote matters. And even outside of the presidential race, maximizing the Democratic vote is critical in almost every single state. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will have an easier time winning his tough Senate race if Biden loses the state by just 13, as Obama did in 2012, as opposed to the 20-point Trump victory in 2016.
Remember, there is more at stake this November than just the presidential race. And with redistricting around the corner, we need to win races all the way down the ticket. The better Biden does, the better our chances everywhere, even in heavily red or blue states that are otherwise uncompetitive in the presidential contest (which is the vast majority of them).
Thus, it is encouraging to see Bernie Sanders more aggressively promote Biden. Will he bring the dead-enders along? Of course not. That crowd has already booted Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders from their incredibly shrinking “movement.”
One last comparison:
Democrats, aged 18-34
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Unsure |
Joe Biden 4/21/20 |
49 |
35 |
16 |
Hillary Clinton 4/21/16 |
50 |
36 |
14 |
The more things change, the more they stay the same, huh? By Election Day, Clinton was at 64-25 favorability with 18-34-year-old Democrats, and that was with a hostile Sanders doing the bare minimum to rally his supporters for the Clinton-Kaine ticket. Getting those unfavorables into the teens (and even the low teens!), in line with other age groups, will be of paramount importance to our election performance this fall.
Sanders is a piece of that puzzle. An energizing vice president who speaks to the issues important to those young voters will also be critical. (Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren or former Georgia Democratic House leader Stacey Abrams top that list.)
Running a campaign that is full intersectional is another piece of the puzzle—remember, the youth vote is disproportionately Black and brown. Race and ethnicity are inextricably bound with age. The median age of a U.S.-born Latino is 19, and it is 30 for all Latinos. For Black Americans, it is 34. For Asians, it is 37. For multiracial Americans, the median age is 21. Altogether, the median age of demographics of color was just 31.
The median age for white Americans is 44, with the most common age being 58.
So any conversation about younger voters is also a conversation about race and gender equity. You can’t separate the two. Is Biden the best person to have that conversation? Heck no. Do we have to make the best of the situation and hope his campaign figures out how to do so? Heck yes.
No one has cracked the code for maximizing the youth turnout. Not even Bernie Sanders. But we do need to improve on recent electoral performances. Nothing short of the fate of our country and the world hangs in the balance.