The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Nebraska: The Cornhusker State held its primaries on Tuesday, and we'll cover the outcomes in the next edition of the Digest. You can find the election results here.
Leading Off
● CA-25: The special election to succeed former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill in California’s 25th Congressional District took place on Tuesday, and Republican Mike Garcia held a 56-44 lead over Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith with about 139,000 votes counted when we put the Digest to bed. However, there are still many ballots left to be counted in this mostly all-mail election, and the Associated Press had not called the race. No matter what, though, both Garcia and Smith will face off again in November for a full two-year term.
Campaign Action
It may be a while before we know for sure who won the special election. California took major steps years before the novel coronavirus to increase voter participation over the years by making it easier to vote, and importantly, officials are required to accept ballots if they're received up to three days after Election Day as long as they are postmarked and mailed by Election Day. This means that a significant share of votes will not be tallied until days—or possibly even weeks—after Tuesday. The late vote has strongly favored Democrats in recent years, though things could be different in this mostly mail-in election.
If Garcia does keep his lead, though, Democrats will have a good chance to retake this seat in the fall. Turnout will almost certainly be significantly higher in the fall than it was on Tuesday, and more importantly, Garcia will be sharing a ballot with Donald Trump. This seat, which includes northern Los Angeles County, swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-44 Clinton, and while Garcia may have the advantages of incumbency, he may have a difficult time finding voters willing to split their tickets.
Election Changes
● Congress: House Democrats have introduced a $3 trillion coronavirus spending bill that includes a number of provisions affecting elections and voting, including $25 billion in funding for the U.S. Postal Service to prevent it from running out of operating funds before November. The bill would also allocate $3.6 billion in grants to states and include mandates that they establish:
- 15 days of early voting;
- Online voter registration;
- Same-day voter registration;
- No-excuse mail voting upon request;
- Universal voting-by-mail in emergency situations like the current pandemic;
- Prepaid postage on mail ballot materials;
- No witness, notary, or voter ID requirements for mail ballots;
- A non-arbitrary process for matching voter signatures that gives voters a chance to correct problems;
- Ballots will count so long as they're postmarked by Election Day and received within a few days afterward;
- Third-party organizations such as community groups may collect and submit voters' mail ballots on their behalf.
However, it's doubtful whether any of these provisions will become law, since Democrats proposed similar measures in March before Congress passed the first multi-trillion dollar spending bill only for Democrats to drop them in order to reach agreement with Republicans, who oppose each of these measures. Politico reports that Democrats "acknowledge that [the bill] is more of a talking point than legislation that they expect to become law."
● New Jersey: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy says he could decide this week on how the July 7 primary will be run, keeping a close eye on Tuesday's local elections taking place by mail with in-person voting limited only to voters with disabilities. Murphy has been considering ordering a similar vote-by-mail election for the July primary.
● Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has extended the starting date for early voting in the July 14 primary runoff from July 6 to June 29, giving voters two weeks of early voting instead of one.
● Virginia: On Monday, the 5th District Republican Committee announced that its nominating convention, which is being held instead of a primary, would take place on June 13. The convention, which had originally been planned for late April, was indefinitely postponed as the coronavirus pandemic worsened, but party leaders are trying to ensure that the date won't move again. The Roanoke Times' Amy Friedenberger reports that delegates will drive to the Tree of Life Ministries church and cast their ballots from their cars.
The GOP contest for this 53-42 Trump seat pits freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman against Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good, a former athletics official at Jerry Falwell Jr.'s Liberty University, and there's good reason to think the new congressman is in for a tough time. Riggleman infuriated plenty of social conservatives at home in July when he officiated a same-sex wedding between two of his former campaign volunteers. This quickly resulted in a homophobic backlash against him, and local Republican Parties in three small 5th District counties each passed anti-Riggleman motions.
Riggleman also has not done anything to hide how unhappy he is that his fate will be in the hands of about 3,500 convention delegates rather than primary voters. The congressman told Roll Call's Stephanie Akin back in March that he wanted a primary instead of "a convoluted convention process that is collapsing under the weight of this crisis." Friedenberger also writes that Riggleman and his allies unsuccessfully tried to convince 5th District party leaders to file a lawsuit to require the state to manage its nomination contest on June 23, the same day that the state's primary will take place. It also hasn't escaped anyone's notice that Tree of Life Ministries, where the convention is taking place, is Good's church.
Democrats, by contrast, opted to hold a traditional primary on June 23. This seat, which includes Charlottesville and south-central Virginia, is tough turf for Team Blue, but a Riggleman defeat next month could give Democrats a larger opening.
Senate
● KS-Sen: Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier is airing her first TV ad ahead of the August primary. Bollier highlights her path to becoming a physician, noting that her parents were both in medicine and that she's committed to helping people.
● ME-Sen: The conservative 1820 PAC is putting a $1.1 million buy behind a TV ad attacking Democrat Sara Gideon on taxes. Their ad claims Gideon backed "$160 million in higher taxes and fees" during her time in the state legislature.
● Michigan: Candidate filing closed Friday for Michigan's Aug. 4 primary, and the state has a list of contenders available here. However, we may need to wait a little while before we know exactly who will be on the ballot. In 2018, about a month after the filing deadline, state Board of Canvassers ruled against several congressional candidates whom the secretary of state said had failed to turn in the requisite number of petitions.
● MI-Sen: Democratic Sen. Gary Peters faces a serious challenge from Army veteran John James, a Republican who held Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow to a surprisingly modest 52-46 win in 2018. Peters doesn't face any intra-party opposition, while James' only primary foe is perennial candidate Bob Carr.
James has outraised Peters during the last three fundraising quarters, and the incumbent ended March with a small $8.8 million to $8.6 million cash-on-hand lead. However, most recent polls, including a few from GOP firms, have given Peters a clear lead.
James likely will need Donald Trump to carry the state again if he's to unseat Peters, but polls constantly show Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in the Wolverine State. However, neither party is going to take anything for granted in either the presidential or the Senate contest after Trump's shock 2016 victory here. Daily Kos Elections rates the Senate race as Lean Democratic.
Gubernatorial
● VA-Gov: The Washington Post reports that former Republican state Sen. Bill Carrico is considering joining next year's GOP primary to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam, although there's no word directly from Carrico. Carrico retired in 2019 after serving nearly two decades in the state legislature representing heavily Republican southwestern Virginia.
House
● IA-04: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which is supporting state Sen. Randy Feenstra in the June 2 Republican primary, is launching a reported six-figure TV ad buy against white supremacist Rep. Steve King. The ad blasts King for being ineffective, noting that he got kicked off the "vital" House Agriculture Committee, hasn't passed a single farm bill, and hasn't weighed in on the "American Agriculture First Act" that is supported by Trump's unnamed "top advisor." The spot is an "issue advocacy" ad that is exempt for standard campaign disclosure rules and thus is prohibited from promoting Feenstra or telling voters explicitly not to vote for King.
● IN-01: The state branch of the American Federation of Teachers has endorsed North Township Trustee Frank Mrvan in the crowded June 2 Democratic primary.
● MA-04: VoteVets has endorsed Newton City Councilor Jake Auchincloss, who served in Afghanistan as a Marine, in the crowded Democratic primary in September.
● MI-03: Republican turned independent turned Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash is leaving this seat behind to run for president, and a few Republicans are running to retake this Grand Rapids-area district. However, the only GOP candidates who have the resources to run a serious campaign are Army veteran Peter Meijer and state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis.
Meijer, whose family owns an eponymous retail chain with almost 200 locations in the Midwest, has the backing of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and he's made use of his connections to decisively outraise the rest of the field. Meijer ended March with a $634,000 to $248,000 cash-on-hand lead over Afendoulis, while Afghanistan veteran Tom Norton was far behind with only $1,000 to spend.
Attorney Hillary Scholten, who had $259,000 on-hand, has the Democratic side to herself. This seat moved from 53-46 Romney to 52-42 Trump, but Scholten may still have an opening if 2020 turns out to be a favorable year for her party. 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Schuette took the seat by a very slim 48.6-48.2 margin while he was losing statewide 53-44, while GOP Senate nominee John James carried the district by a modest 51-47 that same year while he was going down 52-46. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican.
● MI-05: Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee picked up a challenge in January from former GOP state Rep. Tim Kelly, but the incumbent doesn't seem to be in any danger. Kildee ended March with a huge $1.1 million to $10,000 cash-on-hand lead, and Republicans haven't shown much interest in targeting this seat. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Safe Democratic.
● MI-06: After months of uncertainty, GOP Rep. Fred Upton announced in February that he'd seek an 18th term in this seat in the southwestern corner of the state. The district moved from 50-49 Romney to 51-43 Trump, but Upton's 50-46 win last cycle was by far the closest race of his career.
The Democrats are fielding state Rep. Jon Hoadley, who would be Michigan's first gay member of Congress. Hoadley doesn't face any serious primary opposition, and he recently released a poll showing him leading Upton by a tiny 38-37 margin. Upton, though, ended March with a wide $1.1 million to $251,000 cash-on-hand lead. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Lean Republican.
● MI-07: GOP Rep. Tim Walberg faces a familiar challenge this year from former state Rep. Gretchen Driskell, who was Team Blue's nominee in this south-central Michigan seat in both 2016 and 2018. Driskell lost to Walberg by 54-46 last cycle, which was a fairly decent showing in a district that moved from 51-48 Romney to 56-39 Trump.
However, the area doesn't look like it will be moving back to the left anytime soon. Republican Bill Schuette took the seat 51-46 even as he was badly losing last cycle's gubernatorial race, while Senate nominee John James won 53-45 here. Walberg ended March with a $1 million to $280,000 in a contest we rate as Safe Republican.
● MI-08: This Lansing-area seat moved from 51-48 Romney to 51-44 Trump, but Democrat Elissa Slotkin flipped it 51-47 in a very expensive 2018 race. Five Republicans ended up filing to take on the freshman, but the only one who had a notable amount of money at the end of March was Paul Junge, who worked as an external affairs official at ICE.
Junge, who previously served as the lead anchor at the Lansing Fox affiliate until he was laid off several years ago, has been self-funding most of his campaign, and he had $408,000 to spend at the end of the first quarter. Attorney Kristina Lyke was a distant second with $18,000, so it doesn't look like any of the candidates will put up a serious fight against Junge in the August primary.
Slotkin, though, is an incredibly strong fundraiser, and she has a massive $3.7 million war chest available. Despite the lopsided money race, though, neither party is acting like Slotkin is secure in a seat that Trump carried. Both parties have reserved plenty in this area that can be used in this race, and Daily Kos Elections rates this as Lean Democratic.
● MI-10: Two-term Rep. Paul Mitchell is retiring from this safely red seat, which includes northern Macomb County and the state's "Thumb" region, and three notable Republicans are running to succeed him.
There is no obvious frontrunner at this point. Businesswoman Lisa McClain, who has been self-funding most of her campaign, ended March with $541,000 in the bank, while state Rep. Shane Hernandez had $279,000 on-hand. Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Doug Slocum was further behind with $139,000 to spend.
● MI-11: While Trump carried this seat in the northwestern Detroit suburbs 50-45, Democrat Haley Stevens flipped it 52-45 in 2018. Republicans don't seem to be making a serious effort this cycle to unseat Stevens, who ended March with a $2.4 million war chest.
Five Republicans filed to run here, but none of them had anything like Stevens' resources. The best-funded contender is self-funding businesswoman Carmelita Greco, who had $240,000 to spend, while attorney Eric Esshaki had $186,000 to spend. This contest may still be competitive if Trump can replicate his 2016 win here, but Daily Kos Elections rates this as Likely Democratic.
P.S. Also in the GOP primary is former Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, who won the nomination 2012 in an utter fluke after incumbent Thad McCotter was thrown off the ballot. Bentivolio lost the 2014 primary to Dave Trott 66-34, earned 4% as an independent against Trott in 2016, and took dead last in the five-way 2018 GOP primary to succeed Trott.
● MI-13: Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who is one of the most high-profile members of the House freshman class, faces a primary rematch with Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones in this safely blue seat. Jones entered the contest in late March after over a year of speculation about her plans, and Tlaib ended that month with a huge $1.4 million to $17,000 cash-on-hand lead. An early April poll from Target-Insyght showed the incumbent ahead 43-34.
No other Democratic candidates filed, so this contest will have a very different dynamic than both of Tlaib and Jones’ August 2018 primaries. That year, Michigan held two different Democratic primaries on the same day for this seat: one for a special election for the final months of former Rep. John Conyers' term, and one for the regular two-year term.
Tlaib narrowly beat Jones 31-30 in the six-way primary for the full term. However, there were only four candidates on the ballot in the special election primary, and in that race, it was Jones who edged Tlaib 38-36. Jones and then-Speaker Paul Ryan ended up working out an apparently unprecedented agreement that allowed Jones to serve a few weeks in the House without resigning as head of the Detroit City Council, letting her take a hiatus from that post until Tlaib was sworn in to office in January of 2019.
● NM-03: Politico reports that CHC BOLD PAC, which is the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has launched a $302,000 TV buy for attorney Teresa Leger Fernandez ahead of the June 2 Democratic primary. The ad touts her as someone who will fight for her community and declares, "As a breast cancer survivor, Teresa knows the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs are too high, and she will work every day to make sure nobody loses their healthcare because of a pre-existing condition."
EMILY's List also recently spent $131,000 on mailers supporting Leger Fernandez.
● TX-22: The National Association of Gun Rights tells the Texas Tribune that it's launched a $120,000 TV buy attacking Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls ahead of the July primary runoff.
The narrator begins by telling the audience that a "heroic gun owner" fought back during a shooting at a Texas church and then asks, "So why is congressional candidate Troy Nehls attacking the Second Amendment?" The ad then shows a clip of Nehls saying, "I don't know if any of you have a hog leg strapped to your side here, but you're in a church, you should know better."
The commercial then shows another clip of Nehls at the same event declaring, "I'm not allowing anybody in that criminal justice building with a weapon carried openly … forget it." The narrator then comes back and says that Nehls sounds like 2018 Democratic Senate nominee Beto O'Rourke instead of a "Texan or a Republican."
Other Races
● IN-AG: Gov. Eric Holcomb asked the Indiana Supreme Court on Tuesday to clarify whether or not Attorney General Curtis Hill, a fellow Republican, could remain in office. The court announced the previous day that it was suspending Hill’s law license for 30 days, beginning on May 18, after determining that he had groped several women and “committed the criminal act of battery.”
The ruling did not say, though, whether Hill could resume his duties after his license is reinstated, or if his punishment would instead force him out of office. The state requires its attorney general to be “duly licensed to practice law in Indiana,” but there’s no agreement whether or not a suspended license is acceptable. Holcomb would be tasked with appointing a new attorney general if the post became vacant.
